by Hani Riad on Friday, July 29, 2011 at 3:43pm
Some delusions we should disabuse ourselves of:
1. "The Muslim Brotherhood does not command more than 25% or so of the vote so we should not be concerned about a parliamentary takeover by the MB". This is the ubiquitous message we have been receiving from all the experts, even including some Zionist CNN and other "expert" news commentators. But the past is not always a good predictor of the future. Before using past voting outcomes to make future voting outcome predictions we should first reexamine relevant circumstances dramatically altered by a revolution that may have an impact on voting. One relevant altered circumstance is that Egyptian votes now actually COUNT! The logical follow up question is, "is this likely to impact voter turnout?" The answer to that would be "very probably" (that is what actually happened in the referendum). The next question is "what percentage of the voters would you realistically estimate sympathizes with the MB over all those "other" parties?". If you are being realistic, and remembering all the illiterate, uneducated masses, whose sole basis for their very identity is their religion, that will be about the right time to start packing. ;-) Just kidding. Obviously Mr Sawiris does not think so. But I think we can agree that it would be reckless to accept the "experts'" opinion and regard the MB with anything but the greatest concern. We do not want to wake up the morning after the voting to discover newspaper banners that read "MUSLIM BROTHERS WIN EIGHTY PERCENT OF SEATS!" If possible, scientific polling should be conducted, not only to take measure of the true situation, but also to guide liberal outreach and campaigning efforts. If polls reveal a dire situation which cannot be altered in time, other measures should be considered - perhaps setting a limit to the number of seats any one party can occupy (unlikely). It is better to know of an impending adversity (so you can perhaps take some mitigating measures) than to (literally) wake up to it after the fact. I am far removed from the "facts on the ground" and may have this all wrong. I just worry about being fatigued into complacency.
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