Egypt

Clashes over graffiti ahead of Egypt poll

Via SBS World News

Angry scenes have erupted in Cairo after government workers started painting over revolutionary slogans and graffiti on the walls surrounding the American University at Tahrir Square, Gary Cox reports. 

Angry scenes have erupted in the Egyptian capital, Cairo, after government workers started painting over revolutionary slogans and graffiti on the walls surrounding the American University at Tahrir Square.

Much of the street art honours protesters who died during last year's uprising and subsequent clashes with security forces.

The row comes on the eve of the first presidential vote since the ouster of Hosni Mubarak.

SBS' Gary Cox is in Cairo.

  

via www.sbs.com.au

Egyptians Vote in Presidential Poll

Via NY Times, by David K. Kirkpatrick

Moises Saman for The New York Times--A man examined his inked hand after voting for president in Cairo on Wednesday.

CAIRO — Egyptians went to the polls on Wednesday to choose their first freely elected president, hoping to recapture the promise of a popular uprising that defined the Arab Spring, end 15 chaotic months of military rule and perhaps shape the character of political Islam across the region.

In scenes unthinkable at any time in this country’s vast history, millions of Egyptians waited patiently in long lines, often holding scraps of cardboard against the desert sun, debating with their neighbors which of the five leading contenders deserved their vote. “It is like honey to my heart,” said Mohamed Mustafa Seif, 36, an accountant voting in downtown Cairo. “For the first time in my life, I feel like I have a role to play. My vote could possibly make a difference.”

After 15 months of street protests, economic crisis and rampant lawlessness, the novelty of an uncertain outcome seemed for a moment to revive the sense of momentum and hope. The military council that has governed since President Hosni Mubarak’s ouster has pledged to step aside with the election of a president by the end of June, allowing Egyptians at last a chance to determine their own future after decades of authoritarian rule.

“Rise up, Egyptians!” declared the headline of the largest privately owned newspaper, Al Masry Al Youm. “Egypt of the revolution today chooses the first elected president of the ‘Second Republic.’ ”

With a fluid and shifting field, no reliable polls, and a potential runoff next month, handicapping the race was all but impossible. Two rival Islamists, two former ministers from the government of Mr. Mubarak, and a Nasserite socialist were all in the running. But a central drama was the fierce rivalry between the Islamists — Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood on the right, and Abel Moneim Aboul Fotouh, a more liberal former Brotherhood leader, to the left. The contest between the two holds consequences not only for the future of Egypt, but also for the influence and legacy of the 84-year-old Islamist group across the region.

But for the moment, Egyptians seemed to revel in the freedom to choose. Even opponents of the Islamist candidates cheered their inclusion, for the first time, in a democratic political process. “It is amazing; all the factions are represented,” said Rafik Yousseff, 52, an engineer and Christian who said he planned to vote for Amr Moussa, a secular-minded former foreign minister.

There were scattered reports of trouble throughout the day. Ahmed Shafik, a former air force general and Mr. Mubarak’s last prime minister now campaigning on a vow to restore public order, was hounded from a polling place by a mob of opponents hurling shoes and debris.

But for the most part the vote was orderly and peaceful. Lines outside of polling places stretched for hours in the morning, thinned in the afternoon heat and grew even longer in the evening. Reports from rural districts indicated lines longer than in the big cities. In a news conference, the election authorities appeared in far better control of the process than during recent parliamentary elections; in one case, they quickly sent four buses to resolve a polling place mix-up in a small town of Upper Egypt.

At some polling places, riot police officers cheerfully posed for pictures, savoring the moment. Army vehicles had cruised the capital on Tuesday as soldiers with bullhorns urged all to vote.

“Despite the chaos and the wait, I am happy,” said Salwa Abdel Moneim, 62, waving her blue-inked finger after she left a polling place in the middle-class neighborhood of Heliopolis. She said she waited two and a half hours before getting in to vote. “I feel like it is a dream coming true, and I hope that it lasts.”

Yet, some said they felt the burden of the moment. “This is our last chance to end this painful period in our lives,” said Amgad Hussein, 43, waiting to vote on the more affluent island of Zamalek. “If we choose the wrong president, we will go in circles.”

Others vowed that like the revolution, their votes would resonate far beyond their borders. “Egypt will be the horse that will pull the whole Arab nation forward,” said Mohamed Abdel Monsef, 32, a shopkeeper waiting in line to vote in the impoverished neighborhood of Imbaba.

Many expressed a mix of elation and exasperation about the extraordinary spectacle of the two-month campaign, in which powerful men traded insults and promises in novel competition for the ballots of common people.

“The candidates were all sarcastic about each other and they made fun of each other,” said Mr. Seif, the accountant. “I kept saying there is no way they could be presidential candidates.”

Others felt their own power as citizens, for the first time. In a country where a journalist was fined and jailed two years ago for speculating in print about the health of Mr. Mubarak, in this race leading candidates detailed their infirmities, and one volunteered his medical records in a televised debate.

“It is enough that the new president will know he could go to jail if he does something wrong,” said Mohamed Maher, 28, waiting to vote in Imbaba.

The day was a cascade of scenes many here had never believed possible. Gone were the days when Mr. Mubarak walked a red carpet to his special polling place to cast his ballot in predictable plebiscites. Instead photographers and cameramen thronged to capture the five leading candidates voting just like everyone else — entering polling stations, slipping their ballots into clear plastic boxes and then dipping their fingers into blue ink when they were done.

The first round of voting will continue on Thursday but to ensure that there is no tampering, the campaigns of both Islamists said that thousands of their observers would spend the night with the sealed boxes. If no candidate gets an outright majority, there will be runoff between the two top vote-getters.

Among the many aspects of the race still shrouded in suspense are the future powers and responsibilities of the next president. A political deadlock prevented the drafting of a new constitution, paving the way for a power struggle between the new president, the elected Parliament and the self-appointed military council. The military council has said it will unilaterally issue an interim constitution before leaving power, but it has not yet done so. It was unclear how elected leaders might respond.

For now, most Egyptians were thinking of simple hopes. “I just want a president,” said Ines Mohamed, 40, a housewife waiting to vote. “I want this to end well, to stop all the chaos, to end the bleeding of corruption.”

Reporting was contributed by Mayy El Sheikh, Kareem Fahim, Dina Salah Amer and Mona El-Naggar from Cairo, and Alan Cowell from Paris.

via www.nytimes.com

Vote strategically, but is anyone listening?

In the US 2012 election, the race will be between two hopefuls: Obama and Romney; in France, it was between Hollande and Sarkozy. Only in Egypt is a presidential election race amongst 13 candidates, and until the eve of the elections, with millions undecided, strangely enough, the vote may sway one way or the other.  

At the start, over 1200 candidates applied. Most of these wishful candidates were weeded out, and Egyptians were left with 23 nominees. Even these 23 hopeful had 10 disqualified. 13 remained.

From these 13, 5 carry enough clout to be mentioned: Moussa, Aboul Fetouh, Sabahi, Shafik, and Morsi. You would think that the weeding out task has simplified matters for Egyptians, but that is not the case; the candidate who will end up being Egypt’s next president is still neither confirmed nor guaranteed today, May 22, the eve before Egyptians go to the polls.

In spite of the gag order, the Egyptian street scene is buzzing with tension, anxiety, and speculations.  “Whom will you vote for?” is the question of the day. Millions are still undecided and millions others are fractioned mostly amongst these five candidates.

Though worried about the outcome, or maybe because of these trepidations, Egyptians are taking their first rights seriously. They plan to stand for hours, yet again, to cast their votes. On Facebook, Egyptians are bracing themselves for a long, long day. Messages such as, “I’ll be voting in Heliopolis at Al Orouba School; if anyone is voting there, let’s team up and chat; it’ll be a long haul.”

And because of the seriousness of the outcome, they are all set to choose whom they consider the best candidate assuming him the person to lead Egypt out of the current mess.

At the end of the day, Egypt has been left with two Islamic candidates: Aboul Fetouh and Morsi; and three liberals: Moussa, Shafik, and Sabahi. Of the three liberals, two are considered feloul, i.e. remnants of the old regime—Moussa and Shafik, leaving only one candidate unscathed: Sabahi.

Sabahi has started off with an insignificant following, but has gained popularity and strength as the race progressed. Still, his following may fall short of the needed numbers, and according to the polls, he is not the leading candidate. The issue is: will I lose my vote if I give it to Sabahi? What are the consequences of giving my vote to someone who will not win?

The other two liberals have their own issues. Shafik, too, is gaining ground, but he comes with too much baggage. Being Mubarak’s last chosen Prime Minister, he is the closest of all candidates to the old regime.

Though I believe that Shafik would be a strong, effective leader, many Egyptians refute his rights to lead the country, associating him with the old regime and Mubarak’s cronies. Shafik may indeed cause more turbulence than good especially in the next period.

Moussa is losing ground because of his superficial association with Mubarak, which is a real shame. Many Egyptians are stamping him with the same stamp that stains Shafik. Moussa should not be considered feloul and should not be associated with Mubarak, but that is how the cookies crumble.

Finally we come to the two Islamists. Fetouh is now being named the chameleon, associating him with the reptile that changes colour according to social conditions. Fetouh has strong ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, though he opts not to come across as such. An Islamist voter would vote for Fetouh without thinking twice.

Morsi is the Islamic candidate fair and square. If anything, liberals should be wary of votes that go to him. Morsi also has the affluent Muslim Brotherhood behind him, and he has had the resources to advertise aggressively.

Whom will you vote for then? This is the dilemma. And here are my two cents: vote strategically; choose wisely, not with your heart, and be aware of the consequences; vote for the candidate who has the potential to win against the Islamic torrent; Look at the polls; see who already has the potential to win—from amongst the liberals and choose him.

The Revolution has brought changes and improvement—this election is a case in point—but it also brought out a strong Islamic front that will change Egypt as we know it. I say being a “feloul,” is bad, but more importantly, turning Egypt into an Islamic state is worse.

With a heavy heart, I await the results of this historic election.         

What Do Egyptians Want? Key Findings from the Egyptian Public Opinion Poll

Via Brookings Institute

The 2012 Public Opinion Survey in Egypt was conducted from May 4 — 10, 2012, in the weeks leading up to Egypt’s historic presidential election. The survey assesses which candidate is most favored by the public, what issues are driving public preferences, what Egyptians want their leader and their country to look like, and what role they want religion to play in politics. 

It is important to keep in mind that it is not possible at this point to develop a good predictive model of electoral behavior in Egypt, as the experiment is new, coalitions are still forming, and little information is available about likely voters. Therefore, polls, including this one, can give a hint of the trends in public opinion about the Presidential candidates but cannot provide accurate predictions. One case in point is the fact that Mohamed Morsi, the candidate of the Muslim Brotherhood, the best organized group in Egypt today whose party won the largest block in the parliamentary elections, has been far behind in most Egyptian polls (including this one) although there has been evidence that he is gaining ground. In our poll he garnered only 8% support. But we know that political machinery is essential in getting out the vote and that the political environment in Egypt is changing almost by the day. It is possible, even probable that Morsi will get more votes than the polls are showing.

Still, there is evidence that voters differentiate between Parliamentary and Presidential elections and are not applying the same criteria in their selection. It is also noteworthy that the majority of respondents, 71%, said that the Muslim Brotherhood’s decision to field their own presidential candidates after they said that they would not was a mistake.

Muslim Brotherhood supporters are divided between Morsi and Abul-Fotouh, as are the ultra conservative Salafis. Salafi support for Abul-Fotouh appeared to hurt him among the many liberals who supported him. This fluid environment, in the absence of enough electoral history to develop a model for anticipating electoral behavior means that poll numbers on candidate popularity are mostly indicative of trends, but not necessarily of election outcomes. The most interesting information is on issues that are the driving forces in public assessments.

With this in mind, Abul-Fotouh led with 32%, followed by Amr Mousa with 28%, followed by Shafiq with 14%, and Morsi and Sabahi with 8% each. This poll ended on the day of Egypt’s first ever-Presidential debate on May 10th, 2012, and thus did not measure any impact the debate may have had.

Egyptians who voted in the parliamentary elections say that the most important factors in determining their choices were political party (24%) followed by candidate’s record and experience (21%), and candidate’s position on the economy (19%). But they rank these factors differently in their choices of Presidential candidates, with personal trust in the candidate being the most important (31%) followed by the economy (22%) and record and experience (19%). Interestingly only 9% ranked the role of religion in politics as the most important factor in the parliamentary elections and 8% in their Presidential preferences.

Those who say that the economy is their primary factor of selection tend to have a slight preference for Amr Mousa as President, while those who emphasize personal trust prefer Arab nationalist candidate, Hamdeen Sabahi and former Prime Minister, Ahmad Shafiq. Among the supporters of Abd Al-Men’em Abul-Fotouh, the biggest factor is the role of religion in politics. Among Amr Mousa’s supporters, the biggest stated factor is foreign policy.

Demographically, Mousa received the highest support among Christians (43%), followed by Sabahi (24%) and Abul-Fotouh (9%). Among university graduates Abul Fotouh led with 35% followed by Mousa with 23% and Sabbahi with 18%. Abul-Fotouh also led among the youth (under 25) with 36% to Mousa’s 23%. Mousa led among respondents who lived outside cities with 31% followed by Morsi with 21%, Shafiq with 17%, and Abul-Fotouh with 16%. Depending on the voter turnout, this category may turn out to be very important to the outcome of the elections.

 

The Role of Religion

Although less than ten percent of respondents said that the role of religion in politics is the most important factor in their voting in both the parliamentary and presidential elections, two-thirds of respondents (66%) say they support making Shariia as the basis of Egyptian law. However, only 17% say that they prefer applying Shariia literally, including to the penal code, while 83% say they prefer applying the spirit of Shariia but with adaptation to modern times.

In envisioning the role Islam should play in the Egyptian political system, respondents were asked to choose which of six models (Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey, Tunisia, Malaysia, Morocco) is closest to their aspirations, a majority chose Turkey (54%), followed by Saudi Arabia (32%).

Admired Leaders

When asked in an open question to choose the leader they admire most in the world, but outside of Egypt, 63 percent of Egyptians identified the prime minister of Turkey, Recep Teyyib Erdogan, while five percent each identified President Obama and King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia. But asked which leader they want their next president to look most like in an open question that did not exclude Egyptians, 35 percent identified Anwar Sadat, 26 percent Gamal Abdel Nasser, and 15 percent identified Erdogan.

Attitudes toward the United States

Attitudes toward the United States continue to be unfavorable (85%).

Asked to name the two steps by the United States that would improve the views of the US the most, 66% identified brokering Middle East peace and establishing a Palestinian state, 46% identified stopping economic and military aid to Israel, and 44% identified withdrawal of American forces from the Arabian Peninsula. Only seven percent identified withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan as one of the two top steps, 12% identified an American push to spread democracy in the Middle East, and 18% identified providing more economic assistance to the region.

Although Egyptians in the past year have been understandably preoccupied with their own political and economic situation and have not been paying as much attention to the American elections as usual, and they probably know less about the republican candidates for president, that has not prevented them from giving their opinions. Presented with a choice between President Obama and likely Republican candidate Mitt Romney, 73% said they preferred Romney, and only 25% chose Obama. It is unlikely that most Egyptians know much about Romney, and the choice is more likely to be an expression of disappointment with Obama. When Obama first came to office in 2009, even before his important speech in Cairo, Egyptian public opinion of the President was more favorable than unfavorable. This contrasted with Israeli public opinion, which was more suspicious of Obama. Since then, there has been a reversal of fortune, where in a poll we conducted in Israel last February, Israeli Jews expressed preference for Obama over all the leading Republican candidates (although his lead over Romney was within the margin of error).

Attitudes toward Israel

Respondents were almost equally divided among those who would like to see Egypt maintain its peace treaty with Israel (46%) and those who would like to see it cancelled (44%). 10% would like to see the treaty amended. With regard to the prospects of lasting peace between Israel and the Palestinians, 55% indicated that they don’t believe this will ever happen, while only five percent said it will happen in the next five years, and 40% said it is inevitable, but it will take more time.

Attitudes toward Iran and its Nuclear Program

When asked in an open question to identify the two countries that posed the biggest threat to them, 97% included Israel in that list of two, 80% included the United States, and 20% included Iran. While Iran remains far behind Israel and the United States as a perceived threat, which is consistent with our polls over the past several years, those who identified Iran as one of the two biggest threats have increased from 8% in 2009 and 15% in October 2011 to 20% in the current poll.

If Iran acquires nuclear weapons, 61% of respondents say they would like Egypt to build its own weapons program, while 32% want Egypt to push for a nuclear weapons-free zone in the Middle East that includes Iran, Israel, and Arabs. Even if Iran does not build nuclear weapons, but Israel retains its own, 49% of respondents say they would like Egypt to build its own, while 45% say they prefer pushing for a nuclear weapons-free zone in the Middle East.

Attitudes toward the Crisis in Syria

While respondents were overwhelmingly supportive of the rebels against the Syrian government, they were divided on how to address the crisis. A plurality (43%) said they didn’t want to see any external military intervention in Syria, while 18% supported military intervention, but only with UN Security Council support, and 15% supported Turkish Arab military intervention. Another 40% indicated support for international or Arab arming of the rebels.

When it comes to international actors’ roles in Syria, Turkey was identified by 31% as playing the most constructive role, followed by Saudi Arabia, 26%, and the United States, 20%. Only three percent each identified Russia and China. At the same time, however, 38% identified the United States as playing the most detrimental role in handling the Syrian crisis, while 21% identified Iran, and 18% identified Russia.

 via www.brookings.edu

Egyptians now choose their vision

Via Star Tribune, by Ahmed Tharwat

Photograph taken near the Saqqera Step Pyramid near Giza by Joyce Berdie for The Star Tribune

This week, Egyptians will witness the first presidential election in their history with more than one candidate -- 15 months after the toppling of Hosni Mubarak and his 30-year dictatorship.

The process started with more than 300 candidates, including a plumber, a taxi driver, an ex-con, a dancer who claimed that politics is like dancing, and a cook who promised free meals for all Egyptians if he won.

Many dropped out along the way, and the Supreme Election Commission itself eliminated 10 candidates, including the strongest two challengers to the military establishment -- Khayret Elshater, of the Muslim Brotherhood's Justice and Freedom party, the best organized political party, because of legal issues; and Hazem Abu Ismail, of the "Salafy" El Noor Party, the ultraconservative Muslims who want to take Islam back to the time of the prophet.

Abu Ismail has become the Obama of Egypt, the agent of change, whose name became a household word overnight. He also had a kind of birther problem, and was accused of covering up his mother's non-Egyptian (American) nationality, which under the Egyptian constitution disqualified him from running.

Now there are only 13 presidential candidates left on the ballot.

How will Egyptians select their next president? The candidates have almost no platforms. People only know them through personal reputations, and each candidate talks only about what is wrong with the other candidates.

Since illiteracy is so high in Egypt -- some say 50 percent -- each candidate is randomly assigned a symbol to be used for campaigning and on the ballot. The unusual system was brought about in 1950 and was used in the election of Egypt's second president, Gamal Abdel Nasser, who led the country until his death in 1970. In the 1950s, only 30 symbols were used, but the last parliamentary election required 250 symbols to represent all the candidates.

These symbols, easily recognizable objects from bananas to buses, are decided upon by the Supreme Elections Commission, then are assigned to those running. Last parliamentary election, a conservative candidate wasn't pleased when he was given a woman's dress as his symbol.

Another smiling fellow had a banana next to his face on his campaign poster. Former actress Hind Akif was given a rocket as a symbol, which has the obvious "hottie" connotation in Egyptian everyday lingo.

A symbol like a donkey or snake is never used, as no Egyptian would vote for a donkey or snake candidate. The symbol of the camel has been used extensively since the 1960s, but now, after the infamous battle of the camels in Tahrir Square during the revolution, it probably won't be reused anytime soon. The symbols can be animate or inanimate -- deer and eagles, trains and buses, vacuum cleaners and blenders.

Assigning these symbols may not be all that random. A symbol could actually affect a candidate's chance of winning. They operate as culture codes that only Egyptians can crack.

Here are the five front-runners and how their symbols could affect their chances of winning.

• General Ahmed Shafeiq, the "Ladder." He is known as the "Baltagiyah" (political thugs) candidate, accused of masterminding the battle of the camels in Tahrir Square. He stepped up to be the first prime minister after Mubarak stepped down, but was fired after a poor performance on a TV talk-show debate with novelist, Alaa Aswani. He served as a Minister of Aviation under Mubarak, and is a known social climber.

• Dr. Abdelmoneim Abolfotoh, the "Horse." He defected from the Brotherhood's camp. His views are moderate, and he has more charisma than any Islamist. He was jailed and tortured during the regimes of Anwar Sadat and Mubarak. His supporters cross the Islamist line; he has come from behind in the race, and now he is the front-runner.

• Amre Moussa, the "Sun." Known as the "Floul" (remnants of Mubarak regime) candidate, he spent 10 years as Mubarak's foreign minster and was the former head of the Arab League. He claims that he has the experience needed to establish a new prosperous and secure Egypt.

• Mohamed Morsy, the "Scales of Justice." The Brotherhood candidate, he replaced their main candidate, Khairat el-Shater, when he was disqualified by the Supreme Elections Commission. Actually, everyone thought he should get the "stebn" (spare tire) symbol as an uncharismatic replacement.

• Hamdain Sabbahi, "the eagle." An old leftist, he is supported by liberals and the revolutionary youth. Young, energetic, a firebrand, he once said "Saddam Hussein had more courage than his executioners." He has received endorsements from well-respected major Egyptian world figures, and his political star is rising high.

Now it is up to the Egyptian people.

-------

Ahmed Tharwat is a public speaker and hosts the Arab-American show "Belahdan" at 10:30 p.m. Saturdays on Twin Cities Public Television. He blogs at www.ahmediatv.com

via www.startribune.com

Is Amr Moussa "folool" ?

Via This, That, and the Other--a very interesting argument, but the other promising choices (candidates) are Islamists or real felool 

The word "folool" has been bandied about for the better part of the last fourteen months and has served as a ketch all for a variety of sinners. Those who served under Mubarak, those who aided and abetted in the corruption of Egypt (financially, politically and even morally), those who benefited financially from their posts in Mubarak's regime, those who have a Master-Slave view of the relation between state and public etc..etc...

But the definition of the term has also been challenged. "Folool" to some minds simply means someone who wants the security and economic stability of  pre-revolution days to return at any cost, or alternatively somebody who given the choice between fascist Mubarak and fascist Islamists prefers Mubarak, or even someone who's just had enough of this revolution that promised so much and has, so far at least, delivered near nothing at all.

To many of us who believe in the revolution, electing a "folool" (by just about any definition) is simply unacceptable.

Over two separate coffees, one a few days, the other a week ago, a young intelligent and highly liberal friend and an older, equally intelligent and slightly less liberal friend said to me, quoting each other almost verbatim "I know Mousa may be the best technical choice, but I just can't bring myself to vote for him." They both had the same pained look on their face.

Upon probing I discovered that "best technical choice" meant the one with the most direct experience for the job, most recognizable internationally and most likely to lure back the investors and the tourists. So why not vote for him? I asked and both, again as if reading from the same script, literally word for word responded "I just can't, it wouldn't be right". I am assuming based on the rest of both conversations that they mean because of his long old regime ties.

Both my friends believe the revolution was a good thing. Neither wants Mubarak's regime and modus operandi back.

So what gives? Is Moussa "folool" or not?

The only smart thing must be to first offer my own personal definition of folool:

It is someone who satisfies three or more of the following conditions:

1. Served for a lengthy period with Hosny Mubarak in a very senior capacity 
2. Visibly approved of Mubarak's methods of running the country
3. Gained financially from and/or contributed to the corruption prevalent during Mubarak's rule
4. Has a proven view of the relation between government and people which is authoritarian, policing and superior
5. Has an elitist, arrogant view of the majority of Egyptian people, sees them as ignorant and/or unintelligent, undeserving/incapable of entry into KG1 of democracy school
6. Believes it was possible to reform Mubarak's regime and that revolution was not inevitable and/or necessary
7. Contributed directly to the corruption of political life in Egypt and would again
8. Contributed directly to the demeaning of Egypt's regional/international status and would again

I realise several of these defining characteristics are open to debate, and so they should be (especially in post-revolution Egypt). I also realise that some of the criteria are not conclusive enough. How does one for example confirm Moussa's views on the relationship between the government and people of Egypt? Well, one watches, one listens and one reviews history and then, one decides.

So here it is:

1. YES (Mousa is Mubarak's longest serving foreign minister with ten years worth of tenure)
2. YES (Mousa is on record saying "I know how Mubarak manages the country, I would vote for him if he runs for president")
3. NO. Not so much as an accusation which is near miraculous given the amount of accusations chasing so many of Mubarak's previous cabinet members.
4. NO. Actually arguable, he's pretty arrogant, but no evidence I have seen confirms that he would continue in this vein of "government as baton-wielding police force". Let's give the man the benefit of the doubt on this one.
5. NO. Again, arguable, but nothing apart from the wiggling of the forefinger to prove this. Again, benefit of the doubt.
6. YES. Refer to 2 above.
7. YES and NO. Is being a senior member of the regime evidence of involvement? I'll leave it to you.
8. OH YEAH! Moussa, like his ex-boss, is an adherent to the school of thought which basically says "Grovel to the Americans, their Israeli proxies and the Gulf Arabs, for they hold the purse-strings and more".

Final verdict: Moussa is folool, not as blatantly as say Ahmed Shafik or Safwat Sherif, but quite clearly folool. 

He's out for me

via hatemrushdy.blogspot.ca

ElBaradei: Constitutional declaration gives military 'supreme authority'

Via Ahram Online

Mohamed ElBaradei condemns forthcoming constitutional declaration expected to hand Egypt's ruling military 'supreme authority' ahead of country's first post-revolution presidential election

Former Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA, and Nobel Peace Prize winner Mohamed ElBaradei (Photo: AP) 

 

he International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA, and Nobel Peace Prize winner Mohamed ElBaradei (Photo: AP)

One-time presidential hopeful Mohamed ElBaradei has condemned the new constitutional declaration, to be issued by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) within days, because it will hand the military "supreme authority" over the country.

The declaration will allow the SCAF to bypass parliament and define the president's powers just days before he is elected, said ElBaradei via Twitter Saturday.

It will also give the SCAF the right to declare war and authorise arms deals, which, ElBaradei said, "gives the army supreme authority."

"Without a constitution, things will continue to deteriorate," he added.

ElBaradei reiterated his demand that the elected president have the power to form a consensus committee to draft a constitution.

A new constitutional declaration is expected within days after the constituent assembly failed to draft a constitution before presidential elections scheduled for 23/24 May.

via english.ahram.org.eg

Scenarios for a winner in Egypt's post-Mubarak presidential elections

Via Ahram Online

All eyes are on Egypt's first post-Mubarak presidential race that will conclude next week, 23-24 May. Not only because it's the first presidential poll since the January 25 Revolution, but because it's the first real presidential vote ever in Egypt's history. Most therefore find it hard to predict who is likely to win or even reach the run-offs. However, a few names are agreed upon to have a greater chance than others.

There are currently 12 presidential candidates, after the withdrawal of candidate Mohamed Eissa on Wednesday.

In the past month, certain candidates were popular, such as Salafist Hazem Salah Abu-Ismail, the Muslim Brotherhood's Khairat El-Shater, and Mubarak's chief of intelligence Omar Suleiman. However, all three were disqualified by the Supreme Presidential Electoral Commission (SPEC) for different reasons.

In the past few weeks, other names — also popular previously — managed to take the attention, including: Amr Moussa, former minister of foreign affairs and secretary general of the Arab League; Ahmed Shafiq, former civil aviation minister and prime minister during the Egyptian revolution in 2011; ex-Muslim Brotherhood member and activist Abdel Moneim Aboul-Fotouh, and veteran Nasserist and long life political activist Hamdeen Sabbahi.

In addition, there is the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohamed Mursi, who is the head of the Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) and was chosen by the Brotherhood as a substitute candidate for El-Shater. When El-Shater was disqualified, Mursi entered the race as the Muslim Brotherhood's candidate, gaining popularity and focus.

Those names are probably the most known and most appealing to Egyptians according to various polls conducted online, on TV, in various newspapers, and also according to many political analysts.

Political science professor at Cairo University Hassan Nafaa has said that predicting who will win is impossible, especially given the fact that most candidates are independent and not part of a major political party. “Which makes it harder to predict a certain scenario.” A few outlines are possible to estimate, however.

Nafaa said that one of the scenarios — and probably the most appealing to many — is that the run-off occurs between Aboul-Fotouh and Moussa, and in that case Nafaa believes that Moussa is most likely to win since he probably has a wider popularity among non-Islamists. However, regarding that scenario, it might still be a 50-50 situation, with Abul-Fotouh's appeal to many liberals as well.

A second scenario is between the two most popular Islamist candidates, Abul-Fotouh and Mursi. Nafaa said in that case, Abul-Fotouh is most likely to win, since Mursi — despite having the most active and professional presidential campaign — could only win the Brotherhood's votes (with the exception of the Brotherhood youth, who are more likely to vote for Abul-Fotouh).

Since 90 per cent of voters in the elections will be of the "silent majority," Mursi might not be able to make it to the run-off round, especially with the Brotherhood losing popularity after the parliamentary elections and becoming less appealing to the public.

"Mursi lacks charisma, not like El-Shater. I believe that the Brotherhood should've entered the race with a stronger candidate," Nafaa said.

On Amr Moussa and Ahmed Shafiq, Nafaa believes that Moussa definitely has a much greater chance than Shafiq, being less associated with, and tainted by, the Mubarak regime, which could make him more appealing to voters who would prefer a non-Islamist candidate.

Nafaa believes that the prospects vary, but thinks that the candidates with most chance are Moussa, followed by Abul-Fotouh, then Mursi and Shafiq.

Nafaa said that Sabbahi's popularity, that increased in the past two weeks specifically, might raise his chances, but still will not get him to the final round.

Diaa Rashwan, head of Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, said that he depends mainly on the polls the centre conducts on a weekly basis since they are the only possible estimation for what people might want, though no poll can be completely accurate in a major country like Egypt.

According to these polls, Amr Moussa always takes first place whereas Abul-Fotouh and Shafiq switch places in second and third, while Sabbahi and Mursi switch places in fourth and fifth.

Rashwan added that in the polls, the percentage of those who are still undecided is usually within the range of 20 per cent, which means that the final outcome might be totally different from what is predicted. That's why the day of the elections is crucial, and how active and organised the campaigns are will affect the outcome in a significant way.

Analyst at Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies Amr Hashem agrees with Rashwan that polls might be the only possible way to predict scenarios, adding that every day public opinion changes and certain candidates get more or less supporters according to when they last spoke or issued statements.

Hashem believes that the media is what limited the competition to three or four candidates, due to its focus on Abul-Fotouh, Moussa, Shafiq and Mursi, ignoring the other candidates. 

Nesma El-Batreeq, professor in the Faculty of Mass Communication at Cairo University, believes that the coming president will be one of three: Moussa, Abul-Fotouh, or Sabbahi. She previously thought the third would be Shafiq, but he failed to impress the public, she says.

Those who find Shafiq appealing say he has good ties with the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) and that the army will help him "control the country." But for El-Batreeq, this is "nonsense," since "he (Shafiq) never said anything that would give the public enough reasons to elect him as president."

El-Batreeq explained that in the past couple of weeks, Sabbahi managed to gain the support of many of Abul-Fotouh's followers and other leftists who were uncertain about who to choose, explaining that after Sabbahi became more seen and known by the people, due to using media tools and appearances, and also after announcing his programme, he became a favourite for many.

El-Batreeq believes that Mursi doesn't have a great chance since he only appeals to a certain segment of society, which may not be enough to reach the run-offs.

via english.ahram.org.eg

The presidential election in Egypt: Egypt’s second republic

Via The Economist, read on by clicking the link at the end of the excerpt

The country’s new president, whoever he is, will face political and economic challenges aplenty

AS TELEVISED debates go the performance was lame. Two elderly men in dark suits and ties scrapped like shopkeepers, seeming keener to discredit each others’ goods than to plug their own. Yet the sheer ordinariness of the five-hour marathon was historic. For the first time an Arab audience revelled in the spectacle of a live contest for the highest office in the land.

Just as significantly, the sparring candidates in Egypt’s presidential race represented not simply opposing views, but broadly reflected perhaps the most crucial fault line in regional politics. The television drama on May 10th confronted Egypt’s 52m voters with a choice: do they want a republic chiefly guided by timeless Islamic teachings, or one where the changing demands of the people set the rules?

No clear winner emerged in the debate, mirroring a wider political scene where, just now, religious and secular trends seem fairly evenly matched. Yet on television, at least, here was proof that the Arab spring has released the kind of open, healthy discussion that decades of dictatorship stifled. “I didn’t care what they said,” commented the owner of a cigarette kiosk near Tahrir Square in Egypt’s capital, Cairo. “I was just happy to see them talking, instead of shouting or shooting.”

The euphoric toppling of Hosni Mubarak last year has given way to a vexed, often violent and needlessly prolonged transition. Egypt’s 82m people are exhausted. Their feeble economy is stricken. Their government remains a shambles. Until a new president is installed, following a first round of elections on May 23rd and a final round on June 16th and 17th, the army high command remains controversially in charge. The country still awaits a new constitution. The Islamist parliamentary majority that swept to electoral triumph in January failed last month to form an acceptably representative constituent assembly to write one, which means it will be some time before Egypt’s next head of state even knows what powers he wields. Yet in its awkward, bumbling way, the most populous and influential Arab country is moving forward.

The pioneer television debaters were not the starkest representatives of Egypt’s polarised politics. Amr Moussa, a polished, energetic 75-year-old former foreign minister and Arab League chief, stands at the conservative end of the liberal spectrum. Like all Egyptian politicians he bows to the encroachment of religion in public life. He shies away from being labelled a secularist and accepts that Islamic principles should underpin legislation. Many liberals reject Mr Moussa because they say he embodies the old establishment, even though Mr Mubarak clashed with him and fired him. Yet many pro-Islamists respect Mr Moussa as a man of experience, even if he does not brandish his faith on his sleeve.

In a mirror image his opponent, Abdel Moneim Abolfotoh, occupies the liberal end of Islamism. The grizzled 60-year-old doctor won fame as a fearless student activist in the 1970s and spent 30 years as a leader in the Muslim Brotherhood, five of them in prison during one of Mr Mubarak’s periodic crackdowns. But Mr Abolfotoh shifted ideologically away from the group’s dominant conservative strand, before being expelled from the Brotherhood last year for daring to break ranks and run for president on his own. He has won the backing of arch-conservative Islamists, including the main bloc of Salafists, but also of prominent secularists who see him as a bridging figure with strong revolutionary credentials. The Brotherhood itself disdains him as a renegade, yet some liberal Egyptians fear him as a stalking horse for the Islamists. “We’re not religious enough for Islamists or secular enough for liberals,” laments one campaign aide.

With Messrs Moussa and Abolfotoh vying for Egypt’s political centre, the 11 other candidates attract less complex constituencies. The Muslim Brotherhood’s own contender, Muhammad Morsi, a California-educated engineer and experienced parliamentarian, enjoys the deep pockets and organising clout of Egypt’s strongest party. The Brothers have campaigned with a mix of worldly promises and hardline religious rhetoric, reckoning that their resounding success in parliamentary polls accurately reflects the power of their slogan, “Islam is the Solution”.

Yet the bearded and bespectacled Mr Morsi lacks charisma. He was not even the Brotherhood’s first choice. The group’s paymaster and strongman, Khairat al-Shater, was disqualified from running by an army-appointed electoral commission. Mr Morsi must bear the brunt of jokes about being the Brotherhood’s spare. Hecklers animate his rallies by hoisting old tyres. Worse for him, his party’s popularity has dwindled since it took 46% of the parliamentary vote. Part of this is the result of the Islamist-led parliament’s perceived failure to achieve much, in the face of foot-dragging by the cabinet, also appointed by the army. But more importantly the Brothers, known during decades of opposition for stubborn integrity, have in power looked alternately bullying and shifty.

via www.economist.com

Popular support for Egypt's Islamist parties on wane: Gallup poll

Via Ahram Online

Muslim Brotherhood, FJP, Salafists lose varying degrees of popularity on street since last year's parliamentary polls, opinion survey finds

Campaign banner for The Freedom and Justice party. (Photo: AP)

According to recent Gallup polls, Egypt's Islamist parties appear to have lost popularity since parliamentary elections late last year. The popularity of the Muslim Brotherhood and its Freedom and Justice Party (FJP), for example, have fallen considerably in recent months, while the Salafists have witnessed a similar – if less dramatic – decline, according to recent opinion surveys.

A poll conducted last month showed that while 63 per cent of Egyptians in February said they supported the Muslim Brotherhood, only 42 per cent claimed to support them in April. The popularity of the group's FJP also fell considerably, from 67 to 43 percent over the same two-month period, according to the poll.

The popularity of the more conservative Salafist movement, meanwhile, fell from 37 per cent in February to 25 per cent in April. The Salafist Nour Party, in particular, fell from 40 to 30 per cent for the same period.

The Gallup polling agency further revealed that popular support for Egypt's Islamist-led parliament has also waned.

Only 44 per cent of Egyptians polled still back the idea that the party with the most seats in parliament should choose those who will write a new constitution, compared to 62 per cent in February. And only 27 per cent now support the idea that the party boasting a parliamentary majority should choose the vice president, compared to 46 per cent in February.

When asked whether it was "a good thing" for the Muslim Brotherhood to hold a strong position in parliament, those in favour declined from 62 per cent in February to 36 per cent in April. The numbers of those who oppose a strong Brotherhood presence in parliament, meanwhile, increased from 27 to 47 percent over the same period.

via english.ahram.org.eg