Egypt

You Can't Stop the Signal

This is worth reading. I've chosen an excerpt from the second half of the article. Please read on here. 

World Policy Institute, by Mahmoud Salen

When the Mubarak regime shut down the Internet and all forms of communication on January 28, 2011, it did not silence the revolution. Instead, it inspired thousands of supporters to take to the streets. That day soon became known as the "Day of Rage," when overwhelming numbers of protestors poured into Tahrir Square to demand a different—if not better—tomorrow.

Despite the government’s attempts to silence the Internet, Twitter and Facebook remained the main conduit of information effectively combatting state propaganda. When Internet was restored, Twitter became an even more critical tool for mobilization. Whatever needs the protestors had—food, supplies, or otherwise—we would Tweet out to the myriad of followers tracking our every move. After 18 days of somewhat violent protest, Egyptian techno-activists, such as myself, had become the symbols of a revolution we did not lead or control. We were, quite simply, its switchboard.

GOOD, BAD, AND VERY UGLY

In the days that followed, we further explored the limits of social media. Post-Mubarak, safety became a major issue, as rumors of crime spread fast and furiously. In order to verify crime stories, we asked residents to tweet photo confirmations. Meanwhile, Bey2ollak, a Twitter-based app that crowd-sources information on the state of Cairo’s traffic, became a tool to check for the safest route home.

Twitter also helped with logistics and supplies for our activities. When we had clashes or sit-ins, a Twitter account called Tahrir Supplies—created by two girls forbidden by their parents from attending the protests—would tweet lists of medical and food supplies 
that protesters and
field hospitals need
ed. During the clashes that followed the
 sniper killing of Al-
Taawun reporter Mo
hamed Mahmoud in
 February 2011, it is
estimated that Tahrir
 Supplies moved some
 $700,000 worth of
 medical supplies in
 one day. The possibilities of a connectivity 
tool combined with a 
passionate following seemed limitless.

Still, while it had its benefits, social media began to exhibit its shortcomings quite early. Its overwhelming flaw was that it was powered by people. While an excellent medium for crowd-sourcing information and urging followers into collective action, it’s not a broadcasting network. Rather, it’s a two-way conversation between a single person on one side, and thousands on the other. That itself has proved most challenging—especially when only a few of us were on the receiving end.

At any given point I could have anywhere from 300 to 600 contacts in an hour, each seeking a response or wanting to embark on a conversation. Each felt slighted if I failed to answer promptly or missed a single mention. Those we couldn’t answer took it personally and began railing against "those egotistical twiteratti" who didn’t have time to answer the common people anymore. Resentment slowly bred contempt, which eventually turned into antagonism. Our private timeline took on the outlines of an ominous landscape where hundreds, if not thousands, silently waited for a mistake to burn those they once idolized. And then it got worse.

REVOLUTION OF INDIVIDUALS

A revolution organized by social media is by definition a revolution made up of disparate individuals who share similar but general goals. When it came to details, however, the devil lay there smiling. Ideological disagreements reared their ugly heads. Political divisions cracked the collective. Shrillness and extremism quickly replaced rational discourse among even the most renowned activists, who had been allies for years. And given their standing, their divisions set the tone for all those who followed. With time, retaining revolutionary legitimacy meant maintaining extreme and emotional positions that offered little in the way of compromise.

Those who in principle fought for freedom of expression and diversity in opinion then silenced opposing points of views. 

Many activists realized that if they wanted to climb the social hierarchy, they needed to claim to be the only individuals not to have sold out, and build their legitimacy by targeting everyone else’s integrity. In return, they would gain the adoration of thousands of new Twitter followers. This means of mediated ascension was nothing short of disastrous.

A unified political decision became impossible. Joining political parties meant you betrayed the revolution for the sake of playing politics. Running for office meant you were a power-hungry sell-out. Voting meant you were participating in a charade and betraying the blood of those who had died protesting. Meanwhile, the dead were immortalized and turned into social media avatars before they were even buried. In turn, many were used to score policy points or advance political arguments. Protesting became an end to itself, without leading to the creation of anything resembling a concrete or organized structure.

The inevitable conclusion was simple, yet tragic. The revolutionary movement contracted into a strange cultish religion, with its own prophets, saints, martyrs, religious practices, enemies of the faith, and apostates worthy of death. This not only alienated thousands of people who believed in the revolution, it also made it reactionary, open to manipulation, and easy to vilify and destroy. It was group-think on steroids—an abomination of a monster with thousands of arms and no brain.

A WORLD WITHOUT LEADERS

The Egyptian revolution and its aftermath demonstrated what happens to societies when they gain broad access to technology and connectivity. These capabilities can create a space for new political voices to be heard, while simultaneously killing the democratic political process. Though Egyptian youth participation peaked in the weeks following the revolution, it has been in steady decline despite the rising number of elections over the past four years. While this may be attributed to special conditions in Egypt, it is more likely part of a broader, global trend.

via www.worldpolicy.org

The Red Sea, a winter haven for Europeans

It’s minus 15 in Scotland; it’s snowing in England. It’s even colder in Russia. In spite of the warmth the festive season exudes, the days are short and gloomy. So where do Europeans go for a break from the friggin’ cold weather? Hawaii or Bermuda? Too far. Tunisia or Morocco? Too cold. Cyprus or Greece? Even colder. I know. The Red Sea—Sharm El Sheikh, Hurghada, El Gouna, Dahab, or Taba—all in Egypt, all within reasonable distance: one-hop on a plane from just about anywhere in Europe. All these destination are warm enough for a splendid swim and some serious lounging on the beach. 

Did I forget to mention the pristine waters, the excellent diving and snorkeling conditions, the beyond- belief corals, and the predicted forecast—sunny? Did I mention that today it was 26 degrees and the sea was 25 degrees? And one last enticement: it is so inexpensive that by visiting a five-star resort in Sharm, some would find it cheaper than remaining at home.

My winters, for the last 20 years, have always included a stop at one or another spot along the Red Sea. This year’s stop was no different, but what was different was the realization that almost full-to-capacity resorts and their patrons were oblivious to what foreign media were alluding too: how dangerous and risky Sinai was, and how tourists have opted to stay away. No, what I saw confirmed that tourists have returned, while some never left.  From a source that spends months in El Gouna, it is booked solid until April. 

Some tourists find Sinai worth one, two, and three visits a year. The resort we stayed at had plaques posted around the grounds in honour of frequent visitors. One plaque honoured a couple who had been there 41 times. I don’t know if this is the highest number of visits on record, but 40 visits in the 15-year span since the resort’s establishment is quite the feat. 

I’ll let the photos speak for themselves. 

 

 

Not the best photos but they serve their purpose. I'm glad some folks have ignored the hype and opted to enjoy their winters. 

 

Alexandria court cancels Abu Hasira moulid; strips shrine of monument status

Not good. Ahram Online, by Zeinab El Gundy

Court claims the shrine is no longer a monument while Islamic and Coptic antiquities sector says it was never a monument in the first place

An Alexandria administrative court banned the annual religious festival moulid of Jewish saint "Abu Hasira" in the Beheira governorate. The court also ordered the removal of the shrine for the revered Jewish rabbi from the Egyptian antiquities and monuments list.

The shrine of Abu Hasira and the Jewish cemetery next to it were registered as Islamic and Coptic monuments according to former culture minister Farouk Hosni's decision in January 2001.

The administrative court obliged the government to remove the shrine of the Jewish rabbi from the national heritage records, declare this in the state’s official journal and to inform UNESCO of the decision.  

The court also rejected a request to transfer the remains of the Jewish rabbi to Israel as it violates Islamic teachings prohibiting the exhumation of graves and revealed in its debriefing that Israel requested from UNESCO to transfer the body of the revered Rabbi to east Jerusalem in what it called another attempt to “Hebrewise” the city.  

An unnamed official in Egypt's antiquities ministry told Reuters' Aswat Masriya that the ministry was not informed of the ruling by the court. The official added that if the ruling violated Egypt’s antiquities protection law, the ministry would appeal it.

The only authority in Egypt officially authorised to strip a cite of its classification as a monument is the technical permanent committee within the antiquities ministry, the official added. 

Contrarily, Dr. Mohamed Fawzy, the head of Islamic and Coptic antiquities sector in the antiquities ministry told Ahram Online that unlike what was claimed in the case, the Shrine of Abu Hasira was not officially registered as an official Jewish monument in Egypt in the first place.This is not the first time the administrative court has banned the annual festival of Abu Hasira. In 2001 the Alexandria administrative court cancelled the celebrations.

The celebrations were again cancelled in 2012 by Egyptian authorities who cited political instability.The administrative court ruled that Hosni’s decision was invalid and historically inaccurate while having a negative affect the Egyptian heritage. 

Jewish pilgrims head to the annual celebration of the birth of the Moroccan rabbi who is believed to have died in the Egyptian village of Damatiuh during the 1880s.This pilgrimage has some civil unrest in the village spurred by locals who refuse to normalise relations with Israel. 

The local community in Damatiuh also maintains that the Jewish rabbi is not buried in Egypt and was actually buried in Morocco. 

 

via english.ahram.org.eg

Qatar Suspends News Channel Critical of Egyptian Government

NY Times, by David Kirkpatrick

CAIRO — Bowing to pressure from its neighbors, Qatar is suspending its broadcast of a satellite news channel sharply critical of Egypt’s military-led government.

The suspension is Qatar’s biggest concession yet to an 18-month campaign by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and the Egyptian government to press Qatar to stop its backing for supporters of Egypt’s deposed president, Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood.

The decision is a major victory for President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt, who led Mr. Morsi’s ouster last year. Qatar had been the only Arab state to question Mr. Sisi’s legitimacy or bet against his staying power, and the suspension appeared to indicate that the Qataris, too, have now accepted his rule.

The shutdown of the channel, an Egyptian affiliate of the Qatari-owned Al Jazeera network, is also a blow to what remains of the Brotherhood, the mainstream Islamist group that was Egypt’s best-organized political force and most successful political party before it was decimated by a crackdown under Mr. Sisi.

The affiliate, Al Jazeera Live Egypt, was the only significant Egyptian news outlet remaining that had broadcast video of the Brotherhood’s antigovernment demonstrations or otherwise conveyed its views.

In recent days, the affiliate was virtually the only Egyptian channel to cover a Brotherhood-led meeting in Istanbul of lawmakers from the dissolved Egyptian Parliament who came together to denounce Mr. Sisi’s “coup.”

“This is a big sign on the road for the Egyptian regime, the road of building a news system in Egypt,” said Diaa Rashwan, a researcher at the state-funded Al Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies who is also the head of the state-sponsored journalists’ syndicate.

Mr. Rashwan predicted that Qatar’s gesture could ease the way for Egypt to free three journalists for Al Jazeera’s English-language affiliate who were arrested last December on charges of conspiring with the Brotherhood to destabilize Egypt.

Each was sentenced to at least seven years in prison, and their case has drawn international condemnation because of a lack of evidence and because two of the journalists are foreign citizens. One is an Australian and the other is an Egyptian-Canadian with dual citizenship. (Egypt is currently detaining a dozen journalists, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists.)

But Mr. Sisi, who has legislative authority until the promised election of a parliament, recently approved a law allowing the government to deport foreign citizens instead of jailing them, and some have called it a sign he may send home the two foreign journalists. “I think we will see some good news” after Qatar’s concession, Mr. Rashwan said.

Qatar had formed a close alliance with Mr. Morsi and the Brotherhood as a strategy for regional influence, and Al Jazeera’s coverage — especially on the Egyptian affiliate — was conspicuously supportive.

The military-backed government outlawed Al Jazeera Live Egypt shortly after Mr. Morsi’s ouster, and its continued broadcasts from Doha, Qatar, have been a persistent annoyance to Mr. Sisi’s supporters in Egypt and the Persian Gulf.

Continue reading the main story Continue reading the main storyIn March, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain all joined Egypt in pulling their ambassadors in an effort to pressure Qatar to end its support for the Brotherhood and Al Jazeera’s anti-Sisi broadcasts.

But in recent weeks King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, a critical source of financial support to the Sisi government, began a drive for regional reconciliation to form a united front against the dual threats of Iran and the Islamic State extremists.

First the king convened a meeting of gulf monarchs in Riyadh that led to the return of their ambassadors. Then over the weekend he sent a special envoy to Cairo to hold a three-way meeting, the first between Mr. Sisi and an envoy from Doha. It appears to have paved the way for the channel’s suspension.

Al Jazeera Live Egypt announced its suspension early Monday evening. The channel will “stop broadcasting temporarily until the preparation of suitable circumstances in Cairo, that is, after obtaining the necessary permits in coordination with the Egyptian authorities,” said the announcer, Sarah Refaat. “This is a statement from the Al Jazeera network on the last news report broadcast by Al Jazeera Live Egypt from Doha.”

Egypt still seeks the extradition from Doha of a number of Brotherhood supporters or leaders who have taken refuge there.

Asked for comment on the channel’s suspension, Badr Abdelatty, a spokesman for Egypt’s Foreign Ministry, said Cairo supported Arab reconciliation. But he added, without elaborating: “We need to mix actions with words. Deeds are very important.”

via www.nytimes.com

Cabbing in Cairo, a favourite pastime

It’s been 30 years since I got behind a wheel in Cairo. Too many hurdles stand in the way of my doing so. You spend an arm and a leg on your proud possession, the car, only to have it dented, scratched, and battered soon afterwards. Car insurance is not mandatory, so if you get into an accident, and you will get into accidents, you are never compensated. Then the notion of garages had disappeared long ago, with cars ending up double parked on the streets—a vacant parking spot is worth gold late in the evening. But most importantly, the act of driving, itself, on the streets of Cairo, had become so nightmarish that it wasn’t worth it anymore. 

Still, I’m a very mobile person in Cairo. I go everywhere on foot and by taxi, the latter becoming a favourite pastime on my part. I learn so much from these ordinary Egyptians especially if the trip is long or traffic comes to a halt.  

Which taxi you stop and whom you ride with are the first part of the fun. Taxis in Cairo can be smelly and rickety, but often clean and loved. They are usually lavishly adorned with trinkets, photos, flashy seat covers, and velvety or furry padded surfaces, while the cab drivers, themselves, can be religious and conservative, frustrated or nonchalant, of rural or urban background, or an amalgamation of all the above traits. And most of them speed, with me setting the speed limit immediately after I step into the taxi. It’s the luck of the draw.  One can wound up with simply any driver and any taxi—indeed, an opportunity to immerse oneself, even if for a few minutes, in the life of one Cairene. 

Yesterday’s rides are worth today’s write up. Earlier on in the day I had hopped into a taxi and immediately asked the driver his take on gas subsidies. The driver was quite content with the partial removal of gas subsidies since the tariff had also been upped to reflect the change in gas price. And from there the discussion went to subsidies in general. With three children, the cab driver owed a lot to what he was enjoying on his ration card: five loaves of bread per person a day, for five piasters each—less than a cent. And if he didn’t use up all his bread ration, in lieu of bread he could save up to get other food items: a chicken, oil, sugar, etc. 

He was also very happy that the bread crisis had disappeared, and no one needed to line up for hours to get the subsidized bread. This was a modest but hopeful Egyptian.  

Christmas Eve, we stepped into my second cab for the day only to immediately notice the cross hanging from the rear view mirror. With the arrival of diehard Muslims, crosses and photos of the Coptic Pope, Jesus, or Mary, a usual adornment in Coptic-owned cabs, had become a scarcity.  Being a minority in the day and age of extremism prohibited Copts from showing off their love to their religion. 

Besides, after June 30th, as Muslim Brotherhood members walked the streets in protests, the anger was often directed at the first Copt they met. An innocent Coptic passerby, Mary Sameh George, was dragged out of her car and stabbed in April, 2014, simply because she had a cross hanging from her rear view mirror. 

My first reaction to the cross visible from the wind screen was to be concerned with the driver’s safety. And I told the driver so. Why take such a risk I asked? Why have an ultraconservative but disgruntled passenger give you a hard time? His response was quite impressive. “The cross is there to let anyone who wants to say anything against Copts think twice. Besides, I am who I am; I don’t want to hide my identity or have Copts fade away.”  And thirdly, and by far the most essential, he said, “I’m also beginning to feel safer. “ 

I bid him peace and safety and wished him a Merry Xmas. 

On our trip back the cab driver was talkative and willing to share a special story. One day a passenger stabbed him in the neck. The driver in the car behind him saw the incident, helped the bleeding cab driver, and prevented the stabber from fleeing. This driver was a police officer, in civil clothes, stationed at the close by Kerdassa Police Station. 

And because this area was where the cab driver mostly worked, he also witnessed those who headed to the Kerdassa Station and savagely killed the same officer who had almost saved his life a week earlier. Though his tone was sorrowful, he had hope. “Sisi is a godsend; he saved us from those scums.” 

I’m sure I’ll meet yet new and different faces tomorrow and the days ahead in my trips around Cairo. Didn’t I tell you that cabbing was a favourite pastime of mine?  

News Analysis: Egypt, China see huge chances from enhancement of ties

CCTV News, Editor: 张锐 丨Xinhua, by Mahmoud El Fouly

CAIRO, Dec. 23 (Xinhua) -- As Egypt and China have decided to elevate their bilateral ties to a comprehensive strategic partnership, Egyptian economists see the move is likely to amplify investment opportunities and mutual trade between the two countries.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who is currently on a four-day official visit to Beijing, signed on Tuesday a joint statement with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping to boost political, economic, military, cultural and technological cooperation along with that on regional and international affairs.

"Egypt provides great investment opportunities to China and it can be a portal for Chinese products into African markets due to the Egyptian strategic geographic location," Amr Saleh, professor of political economy at Cairo-based Ain Shams University and former World Bank project officer, told Xinhua.

The professor said that relations between Egypt and China should not be restricted to mutual trade "but it is very important to be elevated to the level of comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries," stressing that both Egyptian and Chinese leaders have the political will for the move.

The Egyptian government led by Prime Minister Ibrahim Mahlab has recently established a special cabinet unit to study fields of cooperation with China, which shows the interest of the Egyptian leadership to boost partnership with the giant Asian country.

"Egypt needs a strategic partner not just a business partner, while China has a desire to create strategic economic alternatives in light of the slowing worldwide economy," the professor added.

Saleh expects future military cooperation between Egypt and China as a key field of economic partnership between the two strategic partners.

"Cooperation in arms industries, which is worth billions of dollars, represents a good chance for both Egypt and China as it appears to be military while it is economic in the first place," the professor told Xinhua, noting the industry is one of the main sources of national income for big countries.

Egypt's economy has been ailing over the past four years due to political turmoil that resulted from the ouster of two heads of state. Sisi's administration is currently struggling to put economy back on track.

Last August, Sisi gave the go-ahead signal for digging a 72-km expansion of the original Suez Canal as a national project to boost the country's economy, ordering "the New Suez Canal" to be open for ship navigation in August 2015.

The Egyptian president said that the Chinese companies have great opportunities to invest in the Suez Canal Corridor projects, reassuring to facilitate procedures and provide an ideal atmosphere for foreign investors in Egypt.

"Chinese companies have vast opportunities to work in logistic projects related to the Suez Canal Corridor after the new waterway is completed, such as platform building, container making, ship maintenance and repair, fuel provision, etc," said Hamdy Abdel-Azim, economics professor at Cairo-based Sadat Academy and member of Economy and Legislation Association.

He echoed Saleh's view that there could also be future military cooperation between Egypt and China in weapon spare parts and development.

A few days before leaving Cairo, Sisi told Chinese official media including Xinhua that Egypt supports Xi's initiative on building the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. Sisi said Egypt can be a key player in implementing this initiative due to its strategic location as portal for Africa and the Arab world.

"The Silk Road used to be a well-known historical trade route and if revived it will increase the trade volume passing through it," the economic expert said, adding that Egypt needs to develop its basic infrastructure and services to attract foreign investors in general and Chinese ones 

 in particular.

Abdel-Azim told Xinhua that the intended Silk Road symbolizes a key of future common trade between Egypt and China and a communication bridge between Asian and African countries.

Sisi has recently said that Egypt is establishing a huge road network of 3,400 km within one year as part of its efforts to facilitate investment environment to reassure foreign investors.

Trade volume between Egypt and China exceeded 10 billion U.S. dollars for the first time in 2013, more than 80 percent of which is represented in Chinese exports.

"Egypt needs to develop technologies and improve its products to be qualified for export and make up for the gap between its imports and exports," the economist said.

He also expected the Chinese investments in Egypt, with maximum 10 percent foreign labors according to the regulations, to help reduce unemployment in the North African country.

Political turmoil over the past few years caused a sharp decline in the tourism industry in Egypt, which brought the country over 13 billion U.S. dollars in 2010 alone.

On Tuesday in Beijing, after signing a joint statement with Xi, Sisi hoped that more Chinese tourists will visit Egypt as more Egyptian students study in China. 

via english.cntv.cn

China’s Egypt Opportunity

The Diplomat by Shannon Tiezzi

With Egyptian President Sisi in Beijing, China is looking to expand its ties with Cairo.

In what Chinese President Xi Jinping called “an important milestone,” China and Egypt have upgraded their relationship to a “comprehensive strategic partnership.” The agreement came as Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi is in Beijing for an official visit. The two leaders further agreed to increase China-Egypt “political, economic, military, cultural and technological cooperation” as well as coordination at the regional and international level.

The visit of President Sisi to China caps a year in which China has taken small but meaningful steps to increase its role in the Middle East. At this year’s China-Arab Cooperation Forum, Beijing promised to seek more engagement in this region, an increasingly important hot spot for energy-hungry China. Xi Jinping declared 2014 and 2015 “years of China-Arab friendship,” with increased exchanges and visits.  Sure enough, China has been busy fostering deeper ties with Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Lebanon.

Egypt is a particularly interesting case, as the country long enjoyed a close partnership with the United States. However, U.S.-Egypt relations have faltered a bit in the wake of political turmoil in Egypt, beginning with the ouster of long-time dictator Hosni Mubarak in 2011. The new Egyptian president, Mohammed Morsi, made a point of reaching out to China to reduce his country’s reliance on the U.S.; Morsi’s first official trip abroad was to Beijing.

However, Morsi himself was soon toppled by the Egyptian military – sparking a dilemma within the U.S. between practicality and principles. In response to the military coup and crackdown on dissenters, Washington temporarily halted military aid to Egypt. Some aid has since resumed, beginning with a shipment of Apache helicopters in 2014, but human rights concerns continue to dog U.S.-Egypt relations. “Failing to make significant cuts to the [U.S. military aid] program later this year, when the Obama administration will confront tough choices regarding Egypt’s future, would be indefensible,” the New York Times editorial board argued in October, citing “Egypt’s crushing authoritarianism.” Those tensions between military cooperation and human rights concerns were on full display in President Barack Obama’s December 18 phone conversation with President Sisi.

China, meanwhile, has no qualms about dealing with the new Egyptian government, and in fact pointedly emphasized that fact in talks with Sisi. Xi said that China “firmly supports the Egyptians’ pursuit for a development path suitable for their own national condition.” The joint statement signed by the two leaders had China reiterate “its position of respecting the Egyptian people’s rights to choose their political system and development policy on their own as well as opposing external forces’ attempt to interfere in Egypt’s internal affairs.” In turn, Sisi thanked Xi “for understanding the Egyptian people’s request 

for change in recent years,” presumably a reference to the political turmoil in Egypt.

Despite current U.S.-Egypt tensions, there were few signs that China was seeking to supplant the U.S. as Egypt’s major military partner. Instead, Beijing’s focus, as it often is, was on the economic. Egypt and China agreed to work together on the Silk Road Economic Belt and Maritime Silk Road project. Sisi also promised Egypt would actively court Chinese investment for its New Suez Canal project, a $4 billion project that will parallel the existing canal in linking the Mediterranean and Red Seas. The new canal is a natural fit for China’s Maritime Silk Road vision, with the planned route already moving through the Suez Canal to reach Europe.

via thediplomat.com

Lower oil price double-edged sword for energy-hungry Egypt

Reuters expects Gulf States to continue showering Egypt with money on a regular and ongoing basis. Gee!

Reuters by Shadi Bushra

* Egypt expects to save $4.2 bln due to cheap oil in 2014/15

* Gulf oil exporters will be hit by low global oil prices

* Gulf allies provided $10.6 bln in aid to Egypt last year

CAIRO, Dec 23 (Reuters) - The fall in global oil prices will cut Egypt's fuel subsidy bill but could hit the finances of oil-exporting Gulf allies who have showered it with billions of dollars in aid.

Oil has dropped dramatically over the past six months, with Brent crude trading at $60.87 a barrel on Tuesday, down 47 percent from this year's peak just over $115 in June.

If it stays at that level, the government expects to save 30 billion Egyptian pounds($4.2 billion) on fuel subsidies for its 86 million people in the 2014-15 fiscal year. But that is less than half the total Gulf aid it received in the last fiscal year alone.

"This is a double-edged sword," said Justin Dargin, a Middle East energy expert at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

"If oil prices remain low, it is likely that its Gulf patrons will be forced to reduce some of their funding."

Turmoil sparked by the 2011 uprising that overthrew veteran leader Hosni Mubarak has battered Egypt's economy. But Gulf oil exporters have thrown their weight behind Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, the ex-army chief who orchestrated the overthrow of elected Islamist president Mohamed Mursi in July 2013 and since then has sought to crush his Muslim Brotherhood.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates consider Egypt a strategic ally in the fight against the Brotherhood, which they see as a threat to their own ruling orders.

Cash and oil products worth $10.6 billion arrived from the Gulf in 2013-14, bolstering the economy and giving Cairo space to reform the subsidy system that had turned it from energy exporter into net importer in recent years.

Gulf allies are also set to play an important role at an international conference in March, where Egypt hopes to attract billions of dollars in investment.

Ashish Khanna, lead energy specialist at the World Bank in Cairo, said Egypt stood to benefit overall from oil's decline and would save upwards of 20 billion pounds even if prices nudge back closer to $80.

"Falling oil prices positively impact fuel-importing countries like Egypt, in terms of lowering the subsidy burden... and improving the available fiscal space for public investments or enhanced social spending," he said.

Though global prices are now hovering near five-year lows, analysts say they would have to fall further for longer before Gulf countries cut aid.

"The sums provided to Egypt so far are relatively small when compared with the Gulf's savings, so things would probably have to get a lot worse before they cut aid," said William Jackson, economist at Capital Economics in London. ($1 = 7.1500 Egyptian pounds) (Additional reporting by Omar Fahmy, editing by Lin Noueihed and Mark Trevelyan)

via www.reuters.com

Rare Islamic State visit reveals 'brutal and strong' force

I'm blogging the whole article—quite a gribbing story and immensely courageous journalism. I'm surprised that he wasn't beheaded like many others.

BBC, by Caroline Hawley and James LongmanWorld Affairs Unit, BBC News

Juergen Todenhoefer was the first Westerner given access to Mosul since Islamic State took over

A German author given rare access to territory run by Islamic State has told the BBC that the group is stronger, more brutal and harder to confront than he had expected.

Juergen Todenhoefer spent six days in the IS city of Mosul in Iraq, travelling there via Raqqa, in Syria.

Mr Todenhoefer said he found IS followers highly motivated and supportive of the group's brutality.

He said the spread of fighters meant they were hard targets for air strikes.

A former German politician, Juergen Todenhoefer is the only outsider to have travelled deep into IS territory and back. And, considering that several Westerners have recently been beheaded, he did so at terrifying risk.

In Mosul, captured with lightning speed by IS in June, Mr Todenhoefer saw how the group imposes its extreme version of Sunni Islam.

An Islamic State poster shows the right and wrong ways to pray

An Islamic State poster shows the right and wrong ways to pray

Posters instruct men on the right positions in which to pray and tell women how to fully cover themselves.

They must not, for example, wear clothes that "resemble those worn by infidel women or men".

Images on advertising hoardings have been blacked out, and a bookshop displays pamphlets and tomes on religious rulings, including how to treat slaves.

He met child fighters bearing arms for the "caliphate," and encountered recruits from around the world, including the UK, US, Sweden and Trinidad and Tobago.

Rule by fear

Mr Todenhoefer said he was struck by their brutal zeal, and the scale of their ambition to carry out "religious cleansing" and to expand their territory.

"There is an enthusiasm that I've never seen before in warzones," he said.

Jurgen Todenhofer met children who were armed and wearing battle-dress

"They are so confident, so sure of themselves. At the beginning of this year, few people knew of IS. But now they have conquered an area the size of the UK. This is a one per cent movement with the power of a nuclear bomb or a tsunami."

Filmed by his son - with a permit guaranteeing their safety - his material gives the impression of a group busy entrenching their bureaucracy, relatively unperturbed by the threat of coalition air strikes.

"I had the impression that they want to show that the Islamic State is working," Mr Todenhoefer said.

On the surface, life - he said - looks more normal than he had expected. But all the city's Christians and Shia Muslims had already fled in terror, after IS militants took over.

The jihadists now have their own justice system - with IS flags hanging in courtrooms - and their own police enforcing strict Islamic law, although the local police chief told him that he no longer needed to administer violent punishments.

Fear, said Mr Todenhoefer, appeared to be an extremely powerful deterrent.

'Very pessimistic'

It was the conversations that he had with the militants who were escorting him, more than what he actually saw, that were most disturbing for Mr Todenhoefer.

He said he reminded the fighters that most chapters of the Koran began with the words "Allah... most merciful".

"I asked: Where is the mercy? I never got the real answer." 

Mr Todenhoefer estimates that the city is now being held by a few thousand fighters. But, he says, they have made themselves difficult to target by spreading themselves throughout the city and no longer travelling in convoys to avoid coalition air strikes. 

The author believes that IS is stronger in areas of Iraq which it controls, than in Syria. In Raqqa, for example - the headquarters of its so-called state - he says that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is still paying the salaries of government employees. 

Safely back in Munich, Mr Todenhoefer told us: "They are the most brutal and most dangerous enemy I have ever seen in my life." 

"I don't see anyone who has a real chance to stop them," he said. "Only Arabs can stop IS. I came back very pessimistic."

Mr Todenhoefer was lucky to come back at all, even though he had negotiated access to the territory, via a German jihadist, for many months and carried permission issued from the "office of the Caliphate" - which protected him on several occasions.

"I was concerned at some points that they could change their mind," he said.

In the end, unsure whether they had indeed changed their minds and decided to take him and his son hostage, he had to run across the border into Turkey. 

"I had to run 1,000 metres [half a mile] with our bags and all the things we had with us," he said.

"When we arrived, I had such an incredible feeling of happiness. I realised then that I had had tonnes on my shoulders. I called my family. And in this moment I realised it was not very easy what I had done.

via www.bbc.com

Egypt, Hezbollah improve relations

ِAl Monitor by Elie al Ferzli

Lebanon's Hezbollah member Sami Chehab, who escaped from an Egyptian prison during the Cairo uprising, flashes victory signs in front of a poster of an Egyptian anti-government protester holding the Egyptian national flag, during a rally in Beirut's suburbs, Feb. 16, 2011. (photo by REUTERS/Sharif Karim)  

The longstanding issues between Egypt and Hezbollah are shrinking with each passing day. The icy relationship reached its peak on Jan. 28, 2011, with the escape of Sami Chehab from Egyptian prison. All following events have helped break the ice in a situation that today has somewhat thawed to a point that the relationship has been described by the parties involved as solid and fixed.

Now that ties between Hezbollah and Egypt have been developed, it is possible to count five Egyptian priorities constituting common denominators with Hezbollah:

1. Maintaining the security of Lebanon and supporting its army.
2. Fighting extremist terrorism in the two countries and in the region.
3. Disseminating moderation in the Sunni environment and confronting extremism through Al-Azhar missions, in addition to re-strengthening the role of Dar al-Fatwa.
4. Emphasizing on the central importance of the Palestinian issue (Hezbollah calls on all Palestinian factions to meet to consolidate the relationship with Egypt.
5. Stressing the need to preserve the unity of the Syrian state, its institutions and its army, to reach a political solution and confront extremist organizations.

Although the consolidation of the Egyptian relationship with Hezbollah cannot be separated from the improvement of Egyptian-Iranian relations, which reached their worst level when Tehran described the June 30 revolution as a coup. Yet Hezbollah was able to draw the lines of a stable relationship with the Egyptian side, which ultimately falls within the best interest of Egyptian-Iranian ties. This is despite Egypt’s inability to free itself from Saudi Arabia’s considerations in the foreseeable future, notably the economic aid needed to guarantee [survival of] the Egyptian economy.

When the Muslim Brotherhood ascended to power in Egypt, Iranians cheered it on, based on its initial support for p

olitical Islam. However, it soon became apparent that passion prevailed over this support. Just like the Iranians, Hezbollah also welcomed the advent of the Brotherhood but remained more cautious. It appears that Hezbollah was not wrong [to wait].

President Mohammed Morsi went to Iran to attend the summit of the Non-Aligned Movement, [exercising] an approach that did not observe the minimum decency between the states. The division expanded when then-President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visited Egypt and the Egyptian welcoming reception was [less than fitting] for a president. Issues that further drove the two countries apart accumulated, to the point that Cairo Stadium hosted the National Conference for the Support of the Syrian Revolution. Hezbollah saw this as the straw that broke the camel’s back.

Later, Hezbollah preferred not to be dragged along with Iran's reaction to Egypt's June 30 revolution. It contented itself with monitoring, and followed up on the new regime’s crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood locally and abroad. [Egyptian leader] Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s diplomatic transfers of a number of ambassadors specifically affected Egyptian Ambassador to Lebanon Ashraf Hamdi, who was replaced by Ambassador Mohammad Badr al-Din Zayed. In this respect, many reports reached the Egyptian presidency accusing Hamdi of transforming the embassy into the headquarters of the Muslim Brotherhood.

After the revolution, Egypt's first option was to open up to all Lebanese political forces while these relationships used to be limited to the March 14 coalition under the rule of President Hosni Mubarak. At that time, Egypt’s breakup with Hezbollah fell under three major headings: the war of July 2006, where Egypt accused Hezbollah of launching an unjustified war without taking the consequences into consideration; the Israeli aggression on Gaza in 2008, where Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah called on Egypt to intervene militarily in favor of the Strip, which was considered by Cairo a blatant interference in its internal affairs; and the arrest of a Hezbollah-affiliated cell in Egypt in 2010 accused of spying and planning to carry out terrorist attacks and smuggling weapons to the Hamas movement across the Egyptian border.

While these issues were historical, the dispute has not completely subsided. The escape of Chehab remains the most provocative issue for Egyptians, despite Hezbollah’s assurances that it was not responsible for his fleeing. The two parties decided to leave this matter to the judiciary. The Egyptian judiciary is still examining the case, known as the Great Escape, which also implicates Morsi.

Contentious issues and mutual observations are not simple, but the mutual interest of both parties today require them to be set aside. Egyptian-Saudi relations are a sensitive matter for Iran and Hezbollah. Although the latter understands the Egyptian financial crisis and the fact that Saudi Arabia was one of the first countries to recognize the new Egyptian regime, which witnessed international isolation at [its beginning], Hezbollah advises the relevant Egyptian parties it meets to reduce this close relationship, seen in some circles as a relation of subordination to Saudi Arabia.

For Egyptians, this relationship is a mere relationship of gratitude to Saudi Arabia for its positions supporting Egypt. In Cairo, there are always some parties who recall that the Egyptian strategic view of the Syrian war does not match the Saudi position. These recall the Arab League summit in September 2013, where a number of countries exerted pressure to support [military] strikes against Syria for having used chemical weapons. Back then, Egypt’s Foreign Minister Nabil Fahmy categorically rejected any strike against any Arab country, which practically led the Arab League to content itself with stressing the need to keep all actions within the framework of international legitimacy and thus link the Arab League position to a UN Security Council resolution.

via www.al-monitor.com