In a video statement from Abu Dhabi, which Reuters revealed to the world, former Prime Minister Ahmed Shafik announced his intention to run in the 2018 presidential election race. He also said that he would be returning to Egypt in the “coming days.”
After the initial shock, I began to contemplate the pros and cons of such a move by former Prime Minister Ahmed Shafik. I decided that Shafik’s running in the presidential race is a positive matter. He will bestow a democratic hue over the elections upping the general standard of those running against President El-Sisi and proving that the race is not a done deal but an actual fair and square race where the best man will win.
He is also a candidate worth listening to especially if compared to the only other candidate thus far, Khalid Ali, who also said he will run.
Shafik is no easy game; he will have followers, supporters, and advocates. He is definitely a candidate with a presence to be reckoned with. He is firm, stern, and charismatic, and he comes across as shrewd and astute.
However, I believe that Shafik has a ghost of a chance to win the elections. Many matters work against him.
If some dislike President El Sisi because of his military background, Ahmed Shafik is no better. Both men have military backgrounds and experiences. This, while in the video declaring his candidacy, Shafiq said, “Any success whether major or minor will not be achieved in our country without a good civilian, democratic, model and stable ruling system that is able to accept criticism.”
A “civilian” system does not apply to Shafik himself unless he considers retiring from the airforce turned him into a civilian. If it does, then El Sisi is a civilian, too, in that case.
Activists may choose to forget Shafik is still Shafik; a Mubarak era man.Those who didn’t vote for him in 2012 would still not vote for him in 2018 unless they ignore their high and mighty call against the military. If only to spite El Sisi, they may choose Shafik, but they would be going against their efforts in 2012 to have nothing to do with Mubarak or his men as they tilted the election towards Morsi.
Shafik’s fleeing to Abu Dhabi, the self-imposed exile, and the extended unnecessary stay there will remain a thorn in his side. Shafiq had faced various corruption charges, but a year ago his lawyer said that Shafik was acquitted or had the cases against him dropped. He was clear to return to Egypt. Despite that, he didn’t return.
Egyptians dislike those who flee from responsibility. In the minds of Egyptians, Shafik is no better than Mohamed ElBaradei, Ayman Nour, and all Muslim Brotherhood members who fled. It doesn’t matter if they had good reason to flee; they are still considered deserters.
Shafik’s staying in Abu Dhabi for this lengthy period of time will definitely be looked down on by most Egyptians who expect allegiance from their president, a person who is willing not only to stay the course and fight the fight, but also a person who never flees.
Did Shafik choose Reuters to announce his running for presidency or was Reuters the first outlet to pick it up? In any case, the fact that Egyptian media outlets were disregarded or didn’t receive notice of the announcement will work against Shafik, as much from the media as Egyptians.
And when the media go against Shafik, it will be a normal reaction. Again allegiance to Egypt is the name of the game, and Shafik isn’t following the rules to a T.
By evening another speech was aired from Aljazeera where Shafik told the world that the UAE is not permitting him to leave. Though Shafik denies his speaking through Aljazeera, to Egyptians it is what it is, again Egyptians found this quite offensive.
Even if Aljazeera fiddled with the footage to make it look like its own property, this is political suicide very early on in the game. It may break Shafik even before Shafik becomes a true candidate.
Though Shafik looks fit and robust, age may play a significant role in dimming his chances of winning the race. Shafik is 76. If he wins and goes for a second term, he would be in his mid eighties, and wasn’t Mubarak ridiculed for continuing as president as he turned 80?
David Kirkpatrick’s in the NY Times says, ”Shafik stuttered or faltered at times during his video statement on Wednesday, which may remind Egyptians that he has had a reputation for absent-mindedness.” He also reminded us of his popular goof up, “I fought in the war. I killed and was killed.”
Kirkpatrick also reminds us of Shafik’s hot temper. Shafik's “tenure as prime minister ended after just a few months in 2011 when he was forced to resign after losing his temper on a television talk show in a debate with a novelist, Alaa Al Aswany.”
Others have already commented on how the papers Shafik was reading from were shaking alluding to a tremor, even if moderate or slight, in his hands.
So, can Egyptians see in Shafik an alternative to President El Sisi?
I doubt it. You see running against El Sisi will not be an easy feat.
El Sisi is backed by the majority of Egyptians; his supporters view him as the cornerstone to stability, security, and development. Though he hasn’t declared officially that he will run for a second term, as we get closer to election dates, El Sissi's supporters continue to urge him to run, which most probably he will do.
True El Sisi faces many challenges: terrorists along all borders, soaring inflation, and years of stagnation. And yet, Egyptians are solidly behind him, realizing the hard work and effort he has given Egypt.
H.A. Hellyer says, “It’s hard to imagine someone like Shafiq running, unless he’s thinking he’s got backing from within the broader establishment, including the military, to do so,” which to me is absolute nonsense since it implies that the army and the broader establishment is not behind Sisi.
Under the leadership of President El Sisi and because its members believe in President El Sisi, the security apparatus has been fighting a war like no other.
Hellyer also says, “Egypt’s 2018 elections just got more interesting.” This is absolutely true but a fait accompli nonetheless.