Egypt

على الطريق الصحيح

الاهرام اليومي ٢٩ يونيو ٢٠١٩

بقلم د. عزة رضوان صدقي

كان أكثر ما يؤلمني في الأزمنة السابقة هو عدم مبالاة كثير من المصريين بما يجول حولنا من تحديات، مقتنعين أنها قضاء وقدر لن تتغير ولن تتحسن. أيضا السخرية مما كان يواجه مصر، كانت تقلِّل من شأن هذه التحديات وبالتبعية تقلِّل من شأن مصر وشعبها وتجعل بعضهم يلجأ إلى المزاح والنكت وحتى الإهانة لتصنيف أدق وأحلك المصاعب. كذلك كانت اللامبالاة تعمي عن رؤية الصالح وتخلطه بالطالح. وكان كل هذا يصب في منظومة واحدة تجعلنا نبني عشوائيا ونتصرف غوغائيا ونتجاهل الحقوق ونحلِّل الأخطاء ونعتبر أنفسنا فوق القانون. "انت عارف أنا مين؟" كانت تكفل حرية التعامل مع أي قانون وتعطي القائل حقوقا ما لا نهاية لها. والخطأ كان هو الحق والمستحق "ما الكل بيعمل كده هي جت عليا أنا بس؟

والآن نسأل هل تغير المصريون؟ هل الدنيا أصبحت غير الدنيا؟ أم نحن كما نحن متفرجون لا يعملون وساخرون يرفضون ومستفيدون لا يعطون؟

بينما وقف البعض في ٢٥ يناير يطالبون بالعدالة والحرية والكرامة، سوّل للبعض الآخر الإفراج عن السجناء والهجوم على أقسام الشرطة كما سوّل لآخرين السرقة والنهب والتخريب والحرق. ثم تلت فترة زادت الطين بلة، فتره تعثرت مصر كما لم تتعثر من قبل، وأدركت الأغلبية الصامتة التي كانت قد وقفت تتأمل الأحداث عن بعد أن الهاوية الساحقة باتت وشيكة، وبدت مصر كما عرفوها قد ذهبت للحضيض. 

ثم جاءت قياده تأمل لمصر الخير وتعمل بجدية من أجلها وينبعث منها احترام لمصر وللمصريين وتقف أمام الفساد وضد التطاول على القانون. تراها تهتف بحياة مصر في كل مكان وزمان حتى أمام زعماء الدول في الأمم المتحدة الذي جعل بعضهم آنذاك يهتفون هم أيضا بحياة مصر

هنا امتزج الخوف من الهاوية التي كانت مصر على حافتيها مع الأمل في غد أفضل لخلق مصريين أكثر دعامة لمصر يكرهون كارهيها ويحبون محبيها. المزح والدعابة والسخرية ستبقى جزءا لا يتجزّأ من مصر وأجوائها وأسلوب تعامل أبنائها مع الحياة اليومية، ولكن أصبح الاستهزاء بالأوضاع لا يوجد له مكان في مصر الآن، لأن مصر أصبحت فوق كل شيء، لا تُهان ولا تُذّل بل هي فوق الجميع.  كان المصريون دائما وأبدا يغنون ويهتفون لمصر، ولكن اليوم يعنون ما يقولون، فالمصري اليوم "ابن مصر"، ويقول "أنا رافع راسي تملي فوق طول العمر"

 يفتخر المصريون اليوم بمصرتيهم وتاريخهم وحضارتهم ويحاولون بجدية إظهار الوجه الأفضل لمصر، ويسلِّطون الأضواء على ما هو جميل في جميع المجالات. وأصبح من يتطاول على مصر يعاني بشدة، كما تنهال اللكمات على الإعلام الغربي لأنه لا يقول الحق في حق مصر. عندما وصفت يورونيوز الإرهابي هشام عشماوي على أنه "المعارض البارز"، انهالت عليها الانتقادات، حتى اضطرت الصحيفة إلى تغيير عنوانها الرئيسي عن هذا الموضوع إلى "مصر تستلم هشام عشماوي أحد أهم المطلوبين المتهمين بالإرهاب". وقالت تدوينه يورونيوز: "قمنا بتعديل العنوان الأصلي للخبر من خلال تصحيح توصيف هشام عشماوي. ناسف لهذا الخطأ الذي لا يعكس قطعا الخط التحريري ليورونيوز." وأثلج صدر المصريين 

إن فخر المصريين بمحمد صلاح ورامي مالك ينبع من كونهما ينتميان إلى مصر ودائما وأبدا يؤكدون هذا الانتماء.  لم يسمع المصريون بمينا مسعود، ممثل دور علاء الدين في الفيلم الأمريكي، لكن عندما هتف "تحيا مصر" أصبح له شعبيه كبيرة. فخر المصريين باختيار محمد العريان رئيسا لكلية كوينز بجامعة كامبريدج وتعيين مينوش شفيق كأول امرأة تترأس كلية لندن للاقتصاد نابع أيضا من مصريتهم، وعندما لُقِّب الدكتور مجدي يعقوب بأسطورة الطب في العالم تعالت صيحات الاعتزاز والفخر

لا يفتخر المصريون بالأفراد فقط بل بالأماكن والتراث والأحداث والتاريخ والجهد. كثرت جمل الفخر مثل "هذه ليست شواطئ نيس أو كان إنما هي مرسي علم أو سهل حشيش" و"الصورة دية مش من باريس ده التجمع الخامس" و"وسط البلد أصبح مزارا" و"تعيشي يا ضحكة مصر" و"حلوه يا بلدي"، حتى الأحياء القديمة تنال نفس الإعجاب "#حي—الجماليه، سأدعم السياحة المصرية". وسعادة المصريين من الأعمال الكبرى مثل أنفاق سيناء أو محور روض الفرج إثبات أنهم يكنِّنون لبلادهم أحر الامنيات. اما عن فخرهم بافتتاحية مسابقة كاس الامم الافريقيه فحدث ولا حرج

العطاء قد تكاثر والتبرعات قد تكاثرت أكثر، فقد أنشئت عشرات المستشفيات الكبرى في الصعيد والأقاليم الأخرى، والعطاء لا يقف عند التبرع بل يتوسع ليشمل أعمال الخير وتكافل المحتاج.  والأهم أن الفساد الذي كان "على عينك يا تاجر", وإن كان لم نتغلب عليه نهائيا، فتضاءل خوفا من العواقب.  حتى الوزير، ليس المستقيل أم المركون، إنما الوزير في أوج هيبته ورؤساء الإدارات والمحليات يطولهم الطائل إذا ثبتت إدانتهم

كانت هذه المشاعر الفياضة قادمة لا محالة، إنما احتاجت اجتماع الاثنين معا: الخوف على مصر والأمل في الغد. فهل تغير المصريون؟ بالطبع. وهل نطمع في المزيد؟ بالتأكيد، ولكن نحن بدون شك على الطريق الصحيح.

"تحيا مصر"

 

Egypt’s Economy Isn’t Tanking. It’s Thriving.

Foreign Policy, by AHMED SHAMS EL DIN

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi (C) welcomes Joe Kaeser (R) the CEO of German engineering giant Siemens during the inauguration of three large power plants on the outskirts of Cairo on July 24, 2018. KHALED DESOUKI/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

Yehia Hamed’s article for Foreign Policy earlier this month wrongly casts a bleak outlook on Egypt’s economy. Hamed, who served as investment minister in Mohamed Morsi’s ousted government, which led Egypt between 2012 and 2013, implicitly suggests that international investors must be clueless—having poured billions of dollars into the country’s equity and fixed-income markets—and that the government is mismanaging the economy despite lowering Egypt’s international risk, as measured by credit default swaps, to almost half the risk premium as when he was removed from his position as investment minister.

The article, which includes a somewhat reasonable criticism of Egypt’s high debt levels and its rise in poverty levels after the economic reforms of 2016, goes on to paint an unrealistic and unfair view of the country’s economic challenges. It was equally surprising to me, as an Egyptian living and raising my children here, to hear that Egypt was about to collapse. Hamed theatrically warns that Egypt is overstating its income by excessive borrowing and cries wolf that the international community may soon face an imminent flood of Egyptian immigrants at the shores of Europe.

Read on Egypt's Economy isn't tanking. It's thriving. 

Egypt: Morsi's son thanks Turkey, Qatar leaders for support

The NorthAfrica Post

Son of the late ex-Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi has expressed his gratitude to several Muslim World leaders including Turkey and Qatar for their support upon the death of his father.

“We would like to thank everyone, particularly Mr. Erdogan, Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani and his father [Sheikh Khalifa bin Hamad Al Thani], the Malaysian government and former Tunisian President Moncef Marzouki,” Abdullah Morsi told Al Jazeera on Sunday.

Morsi, the first democratically-elected President of Egypt passed away last Monday after he collapsed in a courtroom in Cairo. The former leader had been locked up since 2013 following his removal by his then minister of defense and current President Fattah al-Sisi.

Qatar’s Emir and Turkey’s President were among the world leaders to have openly shared in the sorrow of the Morsi family. Funeral prayers in absentia for Morsi were held in several parts of the world including in Qatar and Turkey.

“No such event has ever been witnessed in history. Never have millions of people performed funeral prayers in absentia for anyone,” Abdullah Morsi said.

Egyptian authorities refused to organize an official state funeral for the 67-year old man. They buried the former leader in Cairo behind closed doors under high security protection.

http://northafricapost.com/32035-egypt-morsis-son-thanks-turkey-qatar-leaders-for-support.html

Call for an investigation over Joan Howard's illicit antiquities' collection

Go to the link and sign the petition Call for an investigation over Hoan Howard's illicit antiquities' collection  

Australian Citizen Joan Howard 95 has recently made headlines due to a collection of antiquities she acquired by looting archaeological sites in Egypt and the Near East during the late sixties and early seventies. Joan, the wife of Keith Howard who served as an Australian diplomat in the United Nations in 1967, used her husband’s UN connections to travel between Syria, Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan, Palestine, and Israel, searching for antiquities. Her activity was recently presented in a celebratory tone in an article of the "West Australian" newspaper which featured her presenting the illicit antiquities collection she keeps at her house in Perth as "a collection come treasure trove the public has never seen".

It is not acceptable that Mrs. Howard behaved as a pirate and appropriated from the different archaeological sites. Mrs. Howard has broken all possible laws taking advantage of her diplomatic status. Thus we call for an investigation on the sources of Mrs. Howard’s collection now in Perth and an initiative for legal action over their repatriation to their countries of origin.

This is to call for an investigation over the illicit digging activities of the Australian Citizen Joan Howard, wife of Keith Howard who served as an Australian diplomat in the United Nations in 1967. Joan was a nurse and spent most of her time during her husband’s mission looting archaeological sites in Egypt and the Near East. Her story recently made headlines at the West Australian, where, among others, it is stated that “Through her husband’s UN connections, over 11 years she was given carte blanche to travel between Syria, Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan, Palestine, and Israel. She used her diplomatic freedom to search for antiquities.”

It is not acceptable that Mrs. Howard behaved as a pirate and appropriated from the different archaeological sites. Mrs. Howard has broken all possible laws taking advantage of her diplomatic status.

We, the undersigned, urge you to demand an investigation on the Egyptian artifacts of Mrs. Howard’s collection now in Perth. These objects should be repatriated if found to have left Egypt illegally. The celebratory tone of the article of her boasting on the destruction of archaeological sites sends a very negative image. This is particularly destructive given the current situation of looting of archaeological sites in Egypt post-2011. We need to counter the exact image Mrs. Howard has presented in her article for the safeguard of not only Egyptian heritage, but also world heritage in general.

Find the petition here. 

Endgame: Egypt’s path to eliminating hepatitis B and C

The Economist, by Melanie Noronha (Link: Endgame: Egypt's path to eliminating Hepatitis B and C)

Egypt appears to be on the path to successfully eliminating viral hepatitis. Its approach offers lessons for countries in their fight against hepatitis B and C

The scale of infection with the hepatitis C virus (HCV) in Egypt was unlike any other country in the world—in 2015 an estimated 6.3% of the population was living with the virus. With a population of 93m at the time, that amounted to close to 6m people. In comparison, the prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) was much lower, estimated at 1% of the total population.

The high prevalence of HCV in Egypt can be traced back to a programme that ran between the 1950s and 1980s to combat schistosomiasis, a water-borne parasitic disease that was endemic in the Nile Delta. Executed by the Egyptian Ministry of Health and Population with the advice and support of the World Health Organisation (WHO), 36m injections were administered to more than 6m people. Undertaken almost entirely with unsterilised and pre-used syringes and needles, the programme inadvertently transmitted HCV, which was not well known at the time. This, combined with weak infection control measures (such as quality controls for blood donations), led to high transmission rates and high prevalence.

Despite high HCV prevalence, the HBV-HCV co-infection rate was found to be just 0.06%, and the geographical distribution of the two infections differed markedly. Exposure to household members who are HBV positive has been found to be the main mode of transmission.

US$3.82bn Estimated economic burden of HCV in Egypt in 2015

The impact of HCV and HBV can be assessed on two fronts: the personal effects of the disease and its impact on economies in terms of employee productivity and direct medical costs. Chronic hepatitis is detrimental to a person’s quality of life, as they can experience fatigue and depression. There is a risk of developing progressive liver damage, which can lead to liver cancer or failure. HCV can increase the risk of type 2 diabetes and other health issues too. Both adversely impact employee productivity through disability and mortality. Specifically for HCV in Egypt, the economic burden was estimated at US$3.82bn in 2015. In terms of direct costs, HCV testing and treatment amounted to some 4% of total health expenditure in 2015 (over US$700m). The same study shows that treating over 300,000 individuals with HCV each year with antivirals could reduce its prevalence by 94% and liver-related deaths by 75% by 2030. Under this scenario, direct costs would be incurred, especially in the short-term to test and treat. But when indirect costs are taken into account, the intervention can be cost saving. Between 2015 and 2030, the estimated savings stand at US$4.6bn for direct costs and US$26.9bn for indirect costs.

Given the scale of the health issue, the response from the Egyptian government has been to craft and implement a national screening programme for chronic hepatitis, focusing on HCV, as well as treating those infected. The programme reached a milestone in May 2019, having screened 50m people across the country in six months. These efforts have been supplemented with infection prevention and control, ongoing surveillance and continued public education to sustain the positive health impact. As many countries in Africa and beyond battle against hepatitis B and C, there are vital lessons to learn from Egypt’s experience.

Reaching millions

As part of the Egyptian government’s commitment to address this health issue, they formed the National Committee for Control of Viral Hepatitis (NCCVH) in 2006, comprising representatives from the Ministry of Health and Population as well as liver and viral hepatitis experts.

The initial challenge was the state of public awareness. Three national studies had concluded that there were serious knowledge gaps in people’s understanding of hepatitis C. The response was to roll out a multi-channel mass education campaign, with clear messages for the public on risk factors (for those who have had surgery, blood transfusions or schistosomiasis injections), transmission modes (including reused syringes and shaving razors) and registering for testing.

In addition to other government initiatives to reach those in rural areas, Gamal Shiha, chairman of the board of trustees at the Egyptian Liver Research Institute and Hospital, and his colleagues at Mansoura University, launched the “Educate, Test and Treat” programme. Implemented across 73 villages, it was designed to educate people about viral hepatitis and start treatment rapidly. Education needs to be the first step, advises Dr Shiha. “If you go to a village without talking to the people and say ‘please come and be tested’, 50% will not come. But after we provide some information, people in the villages were welcoming.”

“When you cure everybody, there will be no transmission. We consider the massive treatment programme one of the pillars of prevention in addition to infection control.” Dr Imam Waked, professor of hepatology, National Liver Institute

“We spent a lot on the media campaign but it was important to encourage people to come for testing,” says Wahid Doss, chairman of the NCCVH. The ambitious screening programme called “100 million healthy lives” cost between US$250m and US$300m and was partly funded from a loan by the World Bank. Of the 5m people estimated to have been living with HCV in 2014, 2.5m were treated between 2014 and early 2019, and 1.8m are expected to be treated by the end of 2019. As a result, the prevalence of HCV in Egypt is expected to decline from 7% to less than 1%. “When you cure everybody, there will be no transmission,” explains Imam Waked, professor of hepatology at the National Liver Institute at the University of Menoufiya and a member of the NCCVH. “We consider the massive treatment programme one of the pillars of prevention in addition to infection control.”

The 2-3% treatment failures would translate to about 50,000 patients who will need more specialised treatment that is not readily available in Egypt.

The last mile

At each stage from initial screening, there is a risk of drop-off as people fail to come back for further tests or complete treatment. The problem is most acute in rural areas, given long distances from testing and treatment centres and high levels of poverty. Layer this with cultural impediments (particularly among women, who are reluctant to leave behind their obligations at home to travel large distances) and it is easy to see why drop-off-rates can be high. To reduce the number of visits required, the “Educate, Test and Treat” programme led by Dr Shiha found a way to offer all the tests required to initiate treatment on a single day.

Going forward, a key challenge will be dealing with treatment failures. Even in the best scenarios, cure rates are between 97-98%. The 2-3% treatment failures would translate to about 50,000 patients who will need more specialised treatment that is not readily available in Egypt. To protect against transmissions from treatment failures, adoption of infection prevention and control measures can be effective.

A holistic approach

To eliminate HCV as a public health threat by 2023 requires a well-rounded approach beyond the current mass-screening and treatment campaign. These include a range of infection prevention and control policies, funded through a combination of government resources and a loan from the World Bank given to upgrade Egypt’s health system, explains Dr Waked.

To incentivise patients to report on treatment outcomes, the Ministry of Health and Population offered a certificate of cure, which was required to secure employment abroad. This improved reporting rates dramatically to 67%, from 25%

Injection safety, which addresses an important mode of transmission for viral hepatitis, has improved over the years. A recent assessment by the WHO found that all public-sector hospitals and 98% of private-sector hospitals used needles and syringes taken from a sterile packet or fitted with caps. To enhance this, healthcare facilities across Egypt will be required to use only auto-disabled syringes by July 2020. Greater adoption of best practice around preparing injections in a dedicated area and cleaning of needles are required.

To further strengthen infection prevention and control, blood banks will be conducting more stringent analysis of blood donations. In addition, the WHO’s national standards for blood transfusion services are being disseminated across Egypt to ensure that protocols for safe transfusion of blood are followed, complemented by efforts to improve regulatory oversight. This entails the formation of a national blood authority and revising the blood safety law.

Prevention measures for HBV have been in place for decades. Egypt began vaccinating infants in 1992, although testing of pregnant women has not been consistent. One study concludes that the existing vaccination programme provides adequate protection. From early 2019, hospitals have been administering the “birth dose”, delivering
the first dose of the vaccine within 24 hours after birth (previously the first dose was given two months after birth). As part of the screening and treatment programme for HCV, vaccinations for HBV were also provided.

For further analysis of progress on eliminating HBV and HCV, the government needs to close the reporting gap. To incentivise patients to report on treatment outcomes, the Ministry of Health and Population offered a certificate of cure, which was required to secure employment abroad. This improved reporting rates dramatically to 67%, from 25%; follow-ups over the phone pushed the rate higher, to 75%. Experts we interviewed suggest that all public and private facilities should be reporting into the same database, with a clear link to individual patient IDs.

Sustaining the positive health impact

Looking ahead, health workers and people themselves must remain vigilant for symptoms of viral hepatitis and risk factors for transmission. But the government in Egypt must continue to provide the tools necessary, including frequent training for health workers as conditions evolve and an extended public education programme.

The screening programme accelerated the efforts to reach the millions who were infected, justified by the scale of the health issue. “It required estimating the magnitude of the problem, establishing treatment centres around the country and securing the political will and financing to provide affordable treatment to the people,” describes Dr Doss. But this must be complemented with effective infection prevention and control policies, including injection and blood safety, to reduce transmission. Dr Shiha concludes, “The government’s direction is very good and the commitment makes me happy. My dream is an Egypt, and a whole world, free of hepatitis C and B.”

Egypt FM spokesman condemns OHCHR statement on Morsi's death for 'lack of integrity and objectivity' \

Ahram Online

The spokesman of Egypt’s Foreign Ministry Ahmed Hafez has strongly condemned statements issued by the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights' (OHCHR) spokesperson on the death of ousted president Mohamed Morsi of a heart attack during his trial session in an espionage case on Monday.

"The statement issued by the OHCHR's spokesperson will be raised at the highest level due to its lack of objectivity and for containing violations and deviation, in addition to breaching the standards of professionalism and integrity," Hafez said in a statement issued today.

"The statement intentionally attempts to politicise a case of natural death," Hafez said, adding that such statements are not appropriate coming from an official spokesperson of an important international organisation.

Hafez’s statement comes in response to OHCHR spokesperson's call on Tuesday for an independent inquiry into the circumstances and causes of the death of Morsi, who died of a heart attack during a trial session in an espionage case on Monday.

The 67-year-old Morsi, who collapsed during the trial session, was pronounced dead upon his arrival at a hospital, according to a statement issued by the prosecutor-general.

Morsi was buried in a Cairo cemetery late on Monday.

Hafez also condemned the statement’s impugning of Egypt’s state institutions and judiciary.

Hafez said that this is not only a deliberate attempt to undermine Egypt's commitment to international standards, but also "a jump to flimsy conclusions that are not based on any evidence about the health of the mentioned person without any awareness, and even total ignorance, of the facts."

"It is an unacceptable act on the part of the OHCHR's spokesperson, especially in proposing that Egypt should take specific actions that are already applied by the Egyptian authorities out of a genuine national commitment and respect for international commitments," Hafez said.

Hafez also said that Egypt recognises that such "vulgar" and "politicized" statements are in line with comments made by “a certain country’s officials" and "entities” who are exploiting the event for political purposes. The spokesman added that these officials use the verbiage of respect for democracy and human rights while their actions reflect an attempt to hold on to power by any means necessary, turning their country into "a tyrannical dictatorship."

Hafez said that these officials have turned their country into a large prison where election results are manipulated, where polls are unjustifiably re-held, and where tens of thousands of dissidents and civil society activists are imprisoned.

The statement added that this state is "abusing and displacing thousands of employees, depriving citizens of their freedoms, silencing their voices, and restricting the fundamental freedoms of expression, assembly and others."

Hafez also said that this state sponsors thousands of terrorist groups in the region and is complicit in the loss of lives and the shedding of the blood of innocents in order to achieve political goals, gain influence and restore past glories. 

via english.ahram.org.eg

Egypt: Top Regional Performer

Global Finance, Link Egypt: Top Regional Performer 

A combination of structural economic reforms, oil and gas development and a recovering tourist sector fuels rapid growth for Egypt.              

APRIL 09, 2019

Author: GORDON PLATT

Egypt is likely to be the Middle East’s top economic performer this year and next, with annual GDP growth estimates near 6%. Macroeconomic stability has returned, and gas exports and tourism are growing. The Central Bank of Egypt recently eased monetary policy, which should help to keep the economy strong.

“We expect another 200 basis points of rate cuts by the end of this year,” says Jason Tuvey, a senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics. Inflation, which had soared above 30% in mid-2017 when Egypt floated the pound, has since receded to less than 15% in recent months. Lower inflation along with a pickup in capital inflows have boosted the stock market and driven down yields on local currency bonds, he notes.

“The primary budget is back in surplus for the first time in almost two decades, and fiscal consolidation should slow substantially,” Tuvey says.

With local banks under less pressure to buy up government debt, they should be able to reorient their lending to private firms and households, he adds. This should help to boost Egypt’s low investment rate and support faster productivity gains.

The energy sector is foundational to the economy’s brightening prospects. Since 2015, when the Italian oil and gas producer Eni discovered Zohr, a supergiant gas field with 30 trillion cubic feet of reserves in Egypt’s portion of the eastern Mediterranean, the company has invested billions of dollars in the project. Another major oil and gas field came on stream in late 2017; and late last year, the Ministry of Petroleum was able to announce Egypt had attained self-sufficiency in natural gas. To attract more investors, Egypt is developing a new system for future oil and gas production contracts, whereby companies take on the costs of exploration and production in return for a share of the output, which they will not have to sell to the government at a fixed price.

Egypt is also working to develop more free-trade zones along the Suez Canal, which it hopes will spawn a manufacturing hub for exports to Europe, Tuvey says.

Bolder Measures on Hold

However, the government of Abdel Fattah El Sisi, the former general and defense minister elected president in 2014, has been wavering on introducing bolder measures Tuvey says could boost potential GDP growth by 7% or more. A state privatization program has been proceeding only slowly, and the military still holds a significant stake in the economy. For example, it owns a majority stake in the company building a new, $45 billion capital city east of Cairo. Potential investors are reluctant to invest in sectors of the economy where the military is expanding and controls the land.

Recent events suggest that’s not likely to change soon. In February, the Egyptian Parliament voted overwhelmingly in favor of constitutional amendments to extend El Sisi’s rule until 2034 and give the military a formal political role. The proposed changes must survive a public referendum; but that’s seen as likely, since little in the way of organized political opposition remains.

That said, “With the continuation of economic reforms—and as inflationary pressures have eased—we expect foreign investment to increase, while domestic businesses will be encouraged to resume borrowing,” says Hisham Ezz Al-Arab, chairman and managing director of Commercial International Bank (CIB). “As a result, there will be a positive impact on new job creation in addition to increasing banks’ loan portfolios. CIB will clearly benefit as this activity gains momentum.”

Hisham Ezz Al-Arab, chairman and managing director of CIB

With a population of over 100 million, Egypt is the most populous Arab nation; its economy ranks among the largest in the Middle East. That makes it a tremendous market with a number of promising sectors for foreign investors. “These include infrastructure, energy, transportation and water desalination,” Al-Arab says. “In addition, the rapidly growing population is fueling the consumer goods, pharmaceutical, health care and real estate sectors.”

Underpinning these opportunities, Al-Arab says, is an economic environment conducive to investment, including an attractive cost of labor, lower distribution costs, low regulatory hurdles and improved intellectual-property protections. “In addition, Egypt is positioned as the gateway to Africa,” he says, “not only geographically, but also with the several trade agreements we have, which allow duty-free entry from many African and Arab countries. Products are, therefore, much more competitive.”

Widening Financial Inclusion

CIB aims to boost Egypt’s low level of financial inclusion by using technology. “Data analytics plays an enormous and vital role in how we make credit decisions, create new products and reach the unbanked consumer and SMEs,” Al-Arab says. “We are working hard to ensure our products and services reflect current technology enhancement and meet the demands of this younger generation of consumers.”

The bank is working with Egyptian fintechs to boost financial innovation and encourage a shift to cashless transactions. “We are supporting an innovation program at the University of Cairo and have established Digital Labs, a platform designed to bridge the gap between the financial-services sector and the emerging entrepreneurial ecosystem,” Al-Arab says.

CIB is also encouraged that the Sisi government has been addressing what the bank considers to be the country’s biggest economic challenges, notably its wobbly currency, the budget deficit, government debt levels and job creation, through a series of reforms and corrective measures. “All the reform efforts and government initiatives, such as investment in infrastructure through national megaprojects, and the easing of investment laws, have been directed to every corner of the population,” Al-Arab says.

Egypt’s reform agenda is supported by a three-year, $12 billion financial arrangement with the International Monetary Fund. IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde, in a statement early this year, noted the government has made substantial progress; she singled out its success at achieving macroeconomic stabilization. The IMF expects Egypt to post a primary surplus target of 2% of GDP this year, for a cumulative fiscal adjustment of 5.5% of GDP over three years. Said David Lipton, the IMF’s first deputy managing director and acting chair, “The authorities remain committed to reaching cost recovery for most fuel products by the mid-2019.”

Curbing the Public Sector

The fiscal adjustments appear to be bearing fruit—or at least, not to be holding the larger economy back. Lagarde pointed to a decline in the unemployment rate to around 10%, which is the lowest since 2011, when the Arab Spring rising drove longtime leader Hosni Mubarak from power, initiating a period of instability and an expansion of social protection measures. “I would like to take this opportunity to commend the patience and commitment of the Egyptian people to the reform process,” Lagarde said. “This will pave the way for higher and more-inclusive growth for the long term.”

Lipton singled out measures “to support inclusive growth by addressing longstanding constraints to private-sector development. These include reforms to improve competition policy, public procurement, management of SOEs [state-owned enterprises] and land allocation.” Fuel prices and electricity tariffs have been hiked, and a smart card system distributes bread more efficiently, without the opportunities for graft and waste under the old system of subsidies.

“The overwhelming driver of the improvement of the budget position over the past couple of years has been a shrinking public-sector wage bill,” says Tuvey. This followed the introduction of a new civil service law in 2015 that caps the rise in public-sector base salaries at 7% a year.

Egypt’s tourism recovery, too, should help to support economic growth, says Tuvey. “Egypt’s tourism sector has mounted a rapid recovery over the past couple of years; and so long as security concerns don’t flare up again, it probably has further to run,” he predicts. “Tourism receipts could rise by a further 2% of GDP in the coming years, potentially wiping out the current account deficit.”

If tourist arrivals return to the peak recorded in 2010, which does not seem unrealistic based on the current trajectory, receipts could grow by as much as an annualized $5 billion, he adds.

 

Mohammed Morsi: Egypt accuses UN of 'politicising' death

BBC, excerpt Mohammed Morsi: Egypt accuses UN of 'politicising death'

Egypt has lashed out at the United Nations for "politicising" the death of the country's first democratically elected president, Mohammed Morsi.

The UN called for an investigation on Tuesday after Morsi collapsed and died during a court appearance this week.

In a statement, Foreign Ministry spokesman Ahmed Hafez "condemned" the suggestion, insisting it was "a case of natural death".

Morsi had been in custody since his removal in a 2013 military coup.

His family have long raised concerns over his treatment in prison, and say that the authorities refused a request for him to be buried in his home town.

The former leader was instead laid to rest in eastern Cairo early on Tuesday morning, reportedly under tight security.

Mr Hafez accused the UN of trying to "[obscure] the institutions of the Egyptian state and the integrity of the Egyptian judiciary."

He added that any suggestion of foul play was "not based on any evidence."

A statement earlier this week from the office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights pointed to Egypt's obligations to treat its prisoners humanely.

"Concerns have been raised regarding the conditions of Mr Morsi's detention, including access to adequate medical care, as well as sufficient access to his lawyers and family, during his nearly six years in custody," a spokesman for the office said.

"He also appears to have been held in prolonged solitary confinement."

Morsi died while appearing in court on spying charges. He was already facing decades in jail after being convicted in previous trials on separate charges.

A forensic report has been ordered into his death.

His former party, the now-banned Muslim Brotherhood, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan – a close ally of Morsi – are among those who have blamed the Egyptian leadership for his death.

Human rights groups including Amnesty International and Human Rights Watchhave also called for an independent investigation into Morsi's death.

 

Egypt's State Information Service slams Human Rights Watch director's tweets on Morsi's death

Head of Egypt's Syndicate of Journalists Diaa Rashwan (Photo: Al-Ahram)

Egypt's State Information Service (SIS) slammed on Monday the regional director of Human Rights Watch over her tweets on the death of ousted president Mohamed Morsi in Cairo.

"In a new ethical low for Human Rights Watch, Sarah Leah Whitson, Director of the Middle East and North Africa division of HRW, published a number of tweets on her account regarding the circumstances of the passing of the deposed president, Mohamed Morsi," the statement said, adding that Whitson’s tweets contained "nothing but false claims that reaffirm HRW's tradition of circulating lies."

Shortly after Morsi's death on Monday, Whitson posted a series of tweets accusing the Egyptian government of "criminal negligence by not providing him with adequate healthcare."

Morsi died after collapsing during a court session in an espionage case in Cairo.

"She also used to the deceased deposed president's passing to give credence to such claims and apply them broadly to all inmates serving sentences in Egyptian prisons," the SIS said.

"It’s astonishing that Whitson posted her first tweet less than 30 minutes after the announcement of the deceased deposed president’s passing; and in this very first tweet she prematurely assumed that the deceased deposed president passed away due to medical negligence without providing any evidence or proof of her allegations bearing in mind that the only verified information that has been provided regarding his death was the Statement released by the Public Prosecutor regarding the preliminary assessment of the deceased deposed president’s passing," the statement said.

The SIS added that the public prosecutor said it would provide more details after forensics officials complete their examination of the body.

The 67-year-old Morsi, who was ousted in 2013 following protests against his rule, was pronounced dead upon his arrival at hospital, according to a report issued by the prosecutor-general.

Morsi was buried in a Cairo cemetery late on Monday.

"HRW’s last report on the deceased deposed president’s health condition was 2 years ago on June 19^th2017 and it included some allegations of violations of his right to have access to proper healthcare," the statement said.

The SIS added that the June 2017 HRW report contradicted an official report that was issued simultaneously which stated that Morsi was in good health and only suffered from diabetes.

"Since then no reports or updates were provided by HRW on the health of the deceased deposed president which proves that the allegations made by Whitson are nothing but unfounded lies," read the SIS statement.

The SIS added that Morsi submitted his last official request to the court regarding his health condition on 19 November 2017 asking to be treated at his own expense and that the court approved the request.

"This further demonstrates how false Whitson’s allegations really are," the SIS said.

"The conclusions that Whitson has reached in her tweets are nothing but an attempt to prematurely reach outcomes with the most politicized intentions," it added.

The SIS accused HRW of attempting to take advantage of the death of an Egyptian citizen to make political statements and unfounded criminal accusations that have no relation whatsoever to human rights work.

via english.ahram.org.eg

Mohamed Morsi and the fall of Egypt’s ‘honorable’ revolution

Christian Science Monitor, via Yahoo!News, by Taylor Luck

Egypt’s first democratically elected president, who died during a courtroom appearance on Monday, was a figure who did not produce the greatness his era demanded.

Mohamed Morsi will be remembered as the Islamist who could never live up to the task of pulling Egypt from decades of dictatorship into a 21st century democracy following the 2011 popular overthrow of Hosni Mubarak.

Never intended to lead his own party, let alone the nation, Mr. Morsi struggled to fit the bill as “Egypt’s George Washington,” and his subsequent persecution following his overthrow by Egypt’s generals in 2013 became a lesson for Arab democrats.  

Guided by the stubborn belief in the righteousness of his cause, Mr. Morsi did little more in his one year in power than prove that mediocrity and good intentions alone in the time of revolution can be fatal.

PARTY MAN

A soft-spoken engineer who completed his Ph.D. at the University of Southern California, Mr. Morsi was by most accounts “unremarkable.”

Neither a firebrand nor an innovator, not known for his oratory skills or for having the common touch, he rose through the ranks of the Muslim Brotherhood, then Egypt’s largest opposition movement, by simply keeping his head down and following orders with unwavering loyalty. He was a party pure-blood; a true believer.

“He is a party man, not a politician,” many of his Brotherhood peers would tell me in private during the country’s 2012 elections.

Mr. Morsi’s rise to the presidency itself was by accident; the Brotherhood’s front-runner candidate, Khairat Al Shater, a gifted politician and firebrand, dropped out weeks before the election after the military and courts annulled his candidacy due to a pre-revolution stint in prison.

The Islamists put forward Mr. Morsi as a party consensus candidate. He had no checkered past and had uttered no controversial statements that would alienate liberals or Christians, but he was also a loyal party member who would stick to the script. He would barely scrape by in the final runoff, with 51.7% of the vote.

From the very beginning, Egypt’s first freely elected president was up against a judiciary stacked with Mubarak loyalists and a military “deep state” that challenged his legitimacy at every move.

Mr. Morsi could not afford a stumble.

But with the Brotherhood controlling Parliament and now the presidency, he would govern as if he held all the cards.

A stubborn believer in majority rule, Mr. Morsi followed a winner-take-all approach to democracy. Although that may work in internal-party politics, it proved catastrophic in governing a country still shaking off the last remnants of a dictatorship.

Time and again, he either refused or failed to build ties with secularists, leftists, and nationalists or allay their fears that the Brotherhood was laying the groundwork for an Egyptian theocracy. In a divided nation, he often appealed only to his supporters.

To the other camps, his acts to “safeguard Egypt’s democratic transition” looked like a dictator’s power grab.

In August 2012, when Egypt’s post-revolution constitution was under attack by the courts and powerful military council, Mr. Morsi granted himself far-reaching powers and purged the military leadership. That November, he mobilized the armed forces to protect the vote on the draft constitution, sparking deadly street violence between Islamists and leftists.

After months of economic mismanagement, a tone-deaf approach to the media, and refusal to adjust his policies, Mr. Morsi had already lost the narrative in Egypt when mass protests erupted over his rule in June 2013. A military coup forced him out of office weeks later.

Mr. Morsi would spend the next six years in jail facing multiple show trials for murder and espionage. It was during the latest session in an espionage trial on Monday that he collapsed and died. He had been held in solitary confinement for 23 hours a day and denied medical treatment for diabetes and high blood pressure, his family said.

The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights called for an independent investigation into his death and the conditions of his confinement.

ISLAMIST ROADMAP

Perhaps a more politically astute president would have been aware of the pitfalls that awaited him, built bridges with political allies across the aisle, crafted his own narrative, or leveraged his millions of grassroots supporters to head off a potential coup.

But it was the downfall that provided a road map to Islamists and democrats elsewhere.

Two years after Tunisia’s revolution, when leftists and secularists protested en masse against the ruling Brotherhood-inspired Ennahda party, Tunisian Islamists stepped down from the government and formed a coalition with other parties.

The Brotherhood in Jordan, Kuwait, and Morocco have since found common ground with liberals and leftists by focusing on the issues of electoral reform, fighting corruption, and economic justice, avoiding the identity politics that divided them.

Most recently, Algerian and Sudanese democratic activists have refused to leave the streets after toppling their strongmen to ensure their militaries complete the transition to civilian rule.

But such considerations were never at the forefront of Mr. Morsi’s thinking.

Perhaps the greatest tragedy of Mr. Morsi’s presidency was his steadfast belief that his love for country, much like his love for the party, was all that was needed for success.

In his closing statement in his last court appearance, Mr. Morsi quoted a poem:

“My country, even if it fought me, is dear to me. My people, even if they resented me, are honorable.”

In Egypt’s revolution, perhaps honorable was not enough.

Mr. Morsi’s attempt to be what he saw as honorable, rather than being the charismatic dealmaking politician needed for the moment, was not enough for the delicate transition.

Also, although the Egyptian people’s revolution and calls for democracy and freedom were honorable, they too were unprepared for the cynical counterrevolution and manipulation of political sentiments on the street that led people to call for the military to return – a decision many now regret.