Egypt

تداعيات التضخم

الاهرام اليومي (٣٠ نوفمبر, ٢٠١٩) بقلم عزة رضوان صدقي

تعريف "التضخم" هو تقلُّص القوة الشرائية مع ارتفاع الأسعار. عندما تتقلص قيمة المال أي لا يستطيع الفرد شراء ما كان بالإمكان شراؤه بنفس المبلغ، يتقلص مستوى معيشة هذا الفرد، وعندما تتسع قدرة المال، أي يستطيع الفرد شراء أكثر مما كان يشتريه بنفس المبلغ، يتحسن مستوي معيشته. إذن فالتقلبات في معدل التضخم هي المؤشر الحقيقي لمستوى معيشة المواطن

تقف معدلات التضخم الإيجابية بشكل عام من 2 إلى 3 بالمائة. التضخم المرتفع بشكل خطير وحتى المنخفض منه كلاهما غير مرغوب فيه، الا أن التضخم المرتفع يعتبر الأسوأ بالطبع. التضخم المنخفض هو تخفيض المستوى العام للأسعار ومع هذا الانخفاض، يتباطأ الإنتاج وينضب المخزون. معدلات التضخم في البلدان الأوروبية مثل بريطانيا وفرنسا وألمانيا تحوم حول 1-2 في المائة، ويبلغ معدل التضخم في كندا 2,4 في المائة والولايات المتحدة 1,7 في المائة والصين 2,1 في المائة. وعلى النقيض تواجه بعض الدول معدلات تضخم تعكس أزماتها الاقتصادية: يبلغ معدل التضخم في السودان 63 في المائة واليمن 41 في المائة وزيمبابوي ١٧٥ في المائة وكوريا الشمالية 55 في المائة

ثم هناك بلدان هوت اقتصاديا تماما، ويدل معدل تضخمها على الكارثة الاقتصادية التي تمر بها. وصل معدل التضخم في فنزويلا إلى 274 في المائة في عام 2016 وتدريجيا صعد إلي 815,194 في المائة في عام 2019. مع هذا التضخم المفرط تآكلت العملة الفنزويلية تماما واضطرت الحكومة لإعادة تصنيف العملة عن طريق إزالة ثلاثة أصفار. بذلك أصبح الطعام غير متوفر ورفوف المتاجر فارغة واضطر الملايين إلى الفرار خارج البلاد. في لقطات على وسائل التواصل الاجتماعي يبيع الفنزويليون الهدايا التذكارية المصنوعة من العملة الورقية الفنزويلية التي لا قيمة لها على الإطلاق  

الآن إلى لب اهتمامنا: مصر. ما الذي حدث في مصر بالنسبة للتضخم؟ قبل ارتفاع عام 2016, كانت معدلات التضخم في مصر تتفاوت من أدنى مستوياتها في عام 1968 (-1,7 في المائة) إلى أعلى مستوياتها عام 1986 (23,9 في المائة). كان هناك العديد من السنوات الجيدة من 1998 إلى 2003 (2,3 في المائة في المتوسط) والعديد من المعدلات الأعلى بشكل كبير خاصة في أوائل التسعينيات ثم ما بين ٢٠٠٨ حتى ٢٠١٠ حيث وصلت معدلات التضخم إلى ١٦ في المائة. بعد 25 يناير 2011, تباطأ الاقتصاد المصري بشدة مع تباعد السياح وانخفاض تحويلات المصريين من الخارج، كما تناقص احتياطي العملات الأجنبية إلى مستوى خطير. كان لابد من تغيير جذري للمنظومة الاقتصادية بأكملها  

مع قرض صندوق النقد الدولي الذي كانت مصر في أشد الحاجة إليه والبالغ 12 مليار دولار، جاءت عدة إجراءات تقشفية: تعويم الجنيه المصري وخفض الدعم على الوقود والكهرباء وزيادة ضريبة القيمة المضافة، وفورا ارتفعت معدلات التضخم إلى المعدل الخطير 33 في المائة، مما تسبب في غلاء فاحش في معظم المنتجات والخدمات وارتفعت اسعار الطعام واللحوم والدواء.  ولأن أسعار الفائدة والتضخم متشابكان رفعت البنوك أسعار الفائدة إلى مستويات قياسية لموازنة التضخم، وقفزت تكلفة الاقتراض الذي أضاف في زيادة الأسعار وصعوبة المعيشة. كما أصدر الجهاز المركزي للتعبئة العامة والإحصاء في مصر تقريراً في يوليو 2019 أعلن فيه أن 32,5 في المائة من المواطنين المصريين يعيشون تحت خط الفقر، بزيادة 4,7 في المائة مقارنة بعام 2015 عندما بلغت 27,8 في المائة  

لكن مؤخرا أذهل الاقتصاد المصري المحللين عندما بدأت معدلات التضخم في الهبوط حتى بعد جولة تلو الأخرى من خفض دعم الوقود والكهرباء. في عام 2018 انخفض معدل التضخم إلى 20,86 في المائة واليوم وصل إلى أدني معدل له: 2,4 في المائة. نحن بحاجة إلى الوقوف قليلا هنا حتى نستوعب هذا المعدل وبالتبعيه له انخفاض الغلاء ثم تأثير هذا الانخفاض على الاقتصاد المصري وعلى المواطنين  

مع استقرار معدلات التضخم عند أدنى مستوياتها الإيجابية ستخفض البنوك أسعار الفائدة وبالتالي ستخفض الديون المحلية ويتقلص عجز الموازنة. علاوة على ذلك، سوف يقترض المستثمرون بفائدة معقولة نسبيا والمنتج سيكون أقل تكلفة، وهذا الاعتدال سوف يجنيه المستهلك بالطبع.  كما أن انخفاض معدلات التضخم يشجع النمو والاستثمار، ولكن الأهم أن هذا الانخفاض يؤثر على المجتمع ككل، لأن المال عندئذ "فيه بركة" مع هذا الانخفاض ويستطيع الفرد شراء وامتلاك ما لم يكن باستطاعته سابقا  

لخصت المجلة الاقتصادية بلومبرج هذا الإنجاز بقول "التباطؤ في معدل التضخم السنوي هو أحد أكبر إنجازات البنك المركزي المصري منذ أن شرعت مصر في البرنامج الاقتصادي المدعوم من قبل صندوق النقد الدولي في عام 2016." أود أن أضيف أنه ليس إنجازا للبنك المركزي فحسب، ولكنه إنجاز لصانعي القرار بشكل عام. درست عواقب قرض صندوق النقد الدولي وأدرك أنها ستكون تحديًا لجميع المصريين، ومع الاقتناع بأن المصريين يتفهمون التحديات وجادون في استيعابهم وقناعتهم، اقترضت مصر من الصندوق الدولي  

اليوم يجني ثمار صبر المصريين وعزم صانعي القرار مجتمعين

 

Egyptian Companies’ Profits Surge as They Reap Benefits of Currency Float

Bloomberg, by Srinivasan Sivabalan (excerpt: read on Egyptian companies' profits surge as they reap benefits of currency float)

For any central bank balking at freeing up its currency for the fear of inflicting pain on the economy, the turnaround being enjoyed by companies in Egypt may provide comfort.

Three years after the north African nation let markets set the pound’s value, its companies are witnessing a rebound in profits. While earnings have surged to a record in dollar terms, estimates have returned to levels last seen before the float.

It’s a transformation for a country that in November 2016 was forced to liberalize an overvalued currency and cut subsidies to get a $12 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund. The measures, aimed at easing a dollar squeeze, initially caused inflation to accelerate to 33% and sent earnings plunging.

Today, it’s inflation that’s near a record low. Foreign currency reserves are booming and the stock market is 62% bigger than its post-float low. Projections for economic growth of 5.6% this year and the pound’s best annual performance since at least 1999 are firing up earnings.

“Egypt is a very good example of what happens when a country ends currency management and lets it float in the market,” said Andrew Schultz, the head of Africa strategy and sales at Investec Bank Ltd. in Johannesburg. “It’s a success story that a number of countries in the region could learn from -- especially Nigeria and Kenya.”

Higher earnings estimates reflect the adjustment the economy has gone through and investors’ improved perception of the nation of 100 million people, Schultz said. Moderating inflation has contributed to investor returns, he added.

Rising profit expectations are making Egyptian stocks cheaper too. The EGX 30 Index trades at 8.3 times projected 12-month earnings, one of the lowest valuations in emerging markets.

Egyptian companies' profits surge as they reap benefits of currency float

Egypt court sides with woman against unequal inheritance law

By The Associated Press

Nov. 26, 2019, 7:37 a.m. ET                                  

CAIRO — An Egyptian woman says she’s scored an important legal victory against her country’s inheritance laws, which grant female heirs half of what they grant men.

Huda Nasrallah, a Christian human rights lawyer, says a Cairo court ruled she may inherit the same share as her brothers.

That decision follows a yearlong legal battle she launched after her father’s death. Two previous judges had ruled against her, based on Islamic inheritance laws that favor male heirs.

Nasrallah told The Associated Press on Tuesday she’s “thrilled” by the verdict and hopes it will encourage other women.

Nasrallah, who belongs to Egypt’s Coptic Christian minority, built her case around a Christian doctrine prescribing equality in inheritance.

Egypt is a predominantly Muslim society where Islamic law is the main source of legislation.

Link: Egypt court sides with woman against unequal inheritance law

 

 

Egypt to send its first communication satellite into orbit on Friday

Reuters (Link: Egypt to send its first communication satellite into orbit on Friday)

CAIRO (Reuters) - Egypt will launch its first communication satellite into orbit on Friday, a move it says will improve its communications infrastructure and internet services and attract investment.

Tiba-1 is due to launch at 2108 GMT on one of Europe’s Arianespace rockets from a space center in French Guiana, officials said.

It is named after Thebes or Tiba in Arabic, an ancient Egyptian capital the ruins of which lie within the modern southern city of Luxor.

The 5.6-tonne satellite made by Airbus and Thales Alenia Space (TAS) will remain in orbit for at least 15 years to provide “every inch” of Egypt with call and internet services, state officials said.

“The Satellite will provide Egypt with a parallel communications network alongside the current land network and a strong telecommunications infrastructure,” Mohamed Elkoosy, executive director of the Egyptian Space Agency, told Reuters.

“The growth of the economy depends on a strong communication network,” he added.

The Egyptian Space Agency will run the satellite from a control center in Cairo.

Egyptian communications minister Amr Talaat said in a statement the satellite “represents a significant qualitative leap in the field of communications and information technology (ICT)”.

Tiba-1’s coverage area includes some neighboring Arab and African countries and Egypt may sell them satellite services in future.

Reporting by Mahmoud Mourad and Momen Saeid Atallah; Editing by Alexandra Hudson

 

Christmas Done Right: AUC Creates This Year’s Christmas Tree Out of Water Bottles

Egyptian Streets, by Nour Eltigani (excerpt from Christmas Done Right: AUC Creates This Year's Christmas Tree Out of Water Bottles)

For this year’s Christmas, the American University in Cairo (AUC) displayed a Christmas tree created from plastic bottles to raise awareness about plastic consumption.

The tree is made of 10,000 plastic bottles, which constitutes only 15% of the monthly plastic consumption on campus.

“This 6 meter high tree is a small reminder to people on out daily consumption of plastic,” Seham Sultan, the designer of the tree and AUC’s graphic design program coordinator, reiterates, “If everyone looks for greener alternatives and cuts down their consumption, it does make a difference on a boarder scale.”

Inspired by the mosaic of the hanging church in Coptic Quarter in Cairo, the tree was created to reflect the beauty of Egypt’s history by shedding light on Coptic Art.

Read on here. 

The ebbs and flows of inflation

Al Ahram Weekly

The present low inflation rates  show the Egypt is reaping the benefits of the government's economic reforms, writes Azza Radwan Sedky

Azza Radwan Sedky , Tuesday 19 Nov 2019

 

One definition of inflation is the shrinking of purchasing power as prices increase. 

When a sum of money can’t buy what it had bought before, in other words its value has shrunk, the standard of living shrinks. In contrast, when a sum of money can buy more than what it had bought before, in other words its purchasing power has expanded, the standard of living improves. The bottom line is that fluctuations in inflation rates speak volumes about how a country is faring and are a true indicator of standards of living. 

Generally speaking, positive inflation rates stand at around two to three per cent. Dangerously high inflation, or hyperinflation, and extremely low inflation, or deflation, are both undesirable, though hyperinflation is far worse. Deflation is a reduction in the general level of prices, but as prices fall production slows and inventories deplete. 

Inflation rates in developed countries like the UK, France and Germany hover at around the one to two per cent mark. Canada has a 2.4 per cent inflation rate, the US is at 1.7 per cent and China is at 2.1 per cent. 

On the other side of the coin, some countries struggle with tumultuous inflation rates that reflect their economic crises: Sudan’s inflation rate is 63 per cent; Yemen’s is 41 per cent; Libya’s is 28 per cent; Zimbabwe’s is 75.66 per cent and North Korea’s is 55 per cent. 

Then there are countries that have sunk to the pit of the economic abyss, and their inflation rate corroborates this catastrophe. As Venezuela’s hyperinflation rate accelerates, the economic disaster the country faces has become more evident. The inflation rate in Venezuela reached 274 per cent in 2016, 863 per cent in 2017 and 130,060 per cent in 2018. According to the journal Trading Economics, “inflation rates in Venezuela…[reached] an all-time high of 815,194 per cent in May 2019.” 

Venezuela’s local currency has eroded altogether, making it defunct while goods have become prohibitively expensive. Food is now largely unavailable, store shelves remain empty, and millions of Venezuelans are fleeing the country. In footage on social media, vendors can be seen selling trinkets and souvenir bags made from Venezuelan paper currency, now considered absolutely worthless, a telling proof of how deteriorated Venezuela’s economy has become.

Now to the core issue of Egypt. How has Egypt fared in the inflation game? Prior to the 2016 price hikes, inflation rates in Egypt went from the very lowest in 1968 (-1.7 per cent) to the very highest in 1986 (23.9 per cent). There were many good years from 1998 to 2003 (average 2.3 per cent), and many significantly higher rates, especially in the late 1990s and early 2000s when inflation rates were around the 10 per cent mark. 

After 25 January 2011, Egypt’s economy teetered near collapse. Tourists didn’t show up, remittances from Egyptians working abroad declined, foreign currency reserves diminished and foreign investors opted to invest elsewhere. Something exceptional had to take place.  

With the much-needed International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan of $12 billion came austerity measures including the devaluation of the Egyptian pound, going to a record low against the dollar, subsidy cuts on fuel, electricity and water, and a new value added tax (VAT). Soaring inflation rates followed almost immediately, reaching 33 per cent. It was a steep uphill battle for most Egyptians, as sceptics heightened their attack on the government’s reform programme in general. 

Interest rates and inflation are intertwined, so the banks raised their interest rates to record highs to counterbalance the inflation. This increased the cost of borrowing, causing products and services to become even costlier.

More importantly, the prices of goods – everything from food to services – skyrocketed in price, affecting people’s buying power and their ability to make ends meet. The Central Agency for Public Mobilisation and Statistics (CAPMAS), the state statistics agency, released a report in July 2019 announcing that 32.5 per cent of Egyptian citizens lived below the poverty line, a 4.7 per cent increase from 2015 when it had stood at 27.8 per cent. 

However, a startling anomaly then occurred, which had economists around the world quite stunned. Lo and behold, the inflation rate steadily but surely went into a decline. In 2018, the inflation rate dropped to 20.86 per cent. In 2019, the rates changed significantly again, dropping to 13.2 per cent. In June this year, they were at 8.9 per cent even after another round of fuel price hikes. In August, they stood at 7.5 per cent, in September at 4.3 per cent and in October at 3.1 per cent, the lowest rate in recent years. 

We need to pause and savour these numbers, for this is a triumph like no other. Then we need to understand what effect such a drop will have on the Egyptian economy and also on Egyptians. 

As inflation rates steady at positive lows, the banks will lower their interest rates. The rate cuts will reduce Egypt’s local debt as it decreases the interest rate paid to lenders and as a consequence reduces the budget deficit. As investors borrow at lower rates, the cost of their products will also be lower, passing on this gain to consumers. 

Lower inflation rates also drive consumption, and as they ease they encourage not only growth but also investment. More importantly, a lower inflation rate affects society as a whole as it allows its members the privilege of buying what sometimes wasn’t affordable earlier.  

The US financial service Bloomberg summed it up quite succinctly by saying that “the slowdown in the rate of annual inflation is one of the [Egyptian] Central Bank’s biggest accomplishments since Egypt embarked on a sweeping IMF-backed economic programme in 2016.” 

I would add that it isn’t the biggest accomplishment of the Central Bank only, but also of acts carried out by the country’s decision-makers in general. They studied the consequences of the IMF loan, knew it was going to be a challenge to all Egyptians, realised it had to be done, but, believing in Egyptians all along, went through with it. 

Today, Egyptians will reap the fruits of their patience throughout the last three years. The best is yet to come.

---

The writer is the author of Cairo Rewind on the First Two Years of Egypt’s Revolution, 2011-2013.

 

Egypt Sovereign Wealth Fund CEO likes food, infrastructure, logistic stocks

Bloomberg

 

Egypt: Trade Deficit Drops 25.8% in August

Asharq Al-Awsat (Link: Egypt: Trade Deficit drops 25.8% in August) 

A general view of center Cairo, Egypt (File photo: Reuters)

Egypt’s trade deficit declined 25.8 percent during August 2019, recording $3.51 billion, according to Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS).

CAPMAS said in a statement that exports dropped 3 percent to reach $1.97 billion in August 2019, and imports decreased 19 percent to hit $5.48 billion.

The Agency attributed this decrease to the drop in imports of petroleum products by 33.3 percent, raw materials of iron or steel by 18.8 percent, plastics by 17.3 percent, and wheat by 2.9 percent.

In other news, experts and investors said that Egypt is on track to become the first destination for entrepreneurship in the region with the development of the investment climate, increased number of investment risk funds, and the growth of entrepreneurial culture.

Investors, who represent venture capital funds investing in startups, predicted the startup investments in the MENA will be 20-fold the value in the next few years.

Participants at the “start-up session” held on the sidelines of the Merger and Acquisition Conference (M&A) in Egypt, reviewed new initiatives to support startups in Egypt, such as Central Bank’s allocation of EGP1 billion to a fund that supports financial technology initiative.

The Conference which concluded last week in Cairo was organized by Mergermarket, the leading provider of M&A data and intelligence.

CEO of Sawari Ventures Hany el-Sonbaty revealed that his company is looking forward to participating in a new round to raise the capital for Swvl Group, the bus booking application which so far received nearly $80 million in funding.

 

Sonbaty pointed out that Egypt needs similar applications in the fields of agriculture, finance and education.

CEO and Founder of AR Ventures Mohamed Azab said his company is now setting up a new $50 million fund, based in Cairo, and it will invest in startups around the world within Endeavor Global.

Middle East Correspondent at Mergermarket Atef Hassan reviewed Magent's latest report on investing in startups in MENA, with Egypt topping the list with about 100 deals out of the 354 in 2019, followed by UAE, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and Tunisia.

UAE topped funding volume with investments of nearly $300 million out of a total of $517 million, Egypt came in second place followed by Saudi Arabia.

Hassan pointed out that these figures do not include the agreements of Careem and Souq.com.

Egypt also holds the top share of North Africa's mergers and acquisitions deals with 75.1 percent of the total transaction volume in 2019 totaling $1.3 billion. 

أيوب أفندي وعاصفة أكتوبر

الاهرام اليومي ١٦ نوفمبر ٢٠١٩ بقلم عزة رضوان  صدقي

في أواخر شهر أكتوبر الماضي كانت مصر في مهب الريح بعد أن أصابتها موجة مناخية قاسية غير مسبوقة حوّلت الطرق إلى أنهار. بسبب تساقط الأمطار الغزيرة تعطلت المدارس والجامعات وتأجلت رحلات الطيران وأغلقت الموانئ والطرق وغرقت الأنفاق والسيارات. تعاطف آنذاك المصريون مع بعضهم ومع ذويهم الذين اضطروا للمكوث في الشوارع في ذروة خروج المدارس والمصالح لساعات طوال. كان لابد من تعليق هذا المناخ المتقلِّب على شماعة. من يكون المتسبِّب في تراكم المياه الجارفة في شوارعنا إلا مسئول ما؟ بالطبع المسئول لم يفِ بمسئوليته وتكاسل وتباطأ، فلم ينظف البالوعات أو يسلِّك المصارف، لذا لابد من معاقبته، وفعلا كان الهجوم شديدا على كل المسئولين. عندئذ تذكرت أيوب أفندي في مسرحية فواد المهندس الخالدة "أنا فين وانت فين؟" عندما تعالى صوت أيوب أفندي (فواد المهندس) على صاحبة الشركة دولت هانم البيرقدار كاف (شويكار)، فطالب موظفو الشركه بمعاقبة أيوب أفندي معاقبة شديدة فصاحوا "لازم ينشنق، لازم يندبح، لازم يعدم بالكرسي الكهربائي"

مع كثافة الأمطار وغرق مناطق عديدة أصاب البعض الذعر، وتكاتف الكثيرون ضد المسئولين، وبالأخص ضد المحليات والمحافظين. وهنا ظهرت نوبة مثل التي أصابت كارهي أيوب أفندي. وبالصور والدلائل تفاني المصريون في هجومهم الشرس على موظفو الدولة: "لابد من محاكمة المحافظين ورؤساء الأحياء والموظفين والمقصِّرين المتسبِّبين في شلل البلد" و"محاسبة ومعاقبة المسئولين هو أقل شيء"، و"السيد محافظ القاهرة مطلع تصريح إنه إدي تعليمات بوضع خطة محكمة للتعامل مع الكارثة. ده بدل ما يطلع للناس يعتذر ويستقيل". أما أبو العريف فقال: "إن غرق مصر الجديدة حصل لأنه تم إلغاء الترام وعمل تعديلات على شوارعها وإلغاء البلاعات اللى كانت معمولة من أيام محمد علي كلاي وأعتقد إن المهندسين مادرسوش موضوع الصرف ده في الكليات." هذه ماهي إلا عينة صغيرة جدا تعبر عن كيفية تعامل المصريين مع الكارثة

بعد فك حصار التكدس المروري وبعد أن وصل المصريون إلى منازلهم سالمين وتنفّسوا الصعداء بعض الشيء بدأت السخرية. إن الاستجابة للمشاكل بخفة الظل هي سمة من سمات المصريين ولكن دواعي الاستهزاء لزمت فتفانوا في تركيب الصور الساخرة عن طريق الفوتوشوب: "بطولة صلاح سالم ١٠٠ متر فراشة" و "آخر إنجاز رئيس حي مصر الجديدة هو تحويل نفق العروبة إلى حمام سباحة عمومي" و"بكرة في مصر الجديده من ٧ إلى ٩ صباحا مواعيد سباحة السيدات، محدش يبص من البلكونة" و "عسكري المرور لما يصفر اعرف إنك واقف في الغريق". هذا مما دعا محطات الإخوان من العبث بصور قديمة أو بصور من أماكن أخرى ونشرها على أنها من مصر لمعاتبة المسئولين هم أيضا مثل مزرعة الدواجن التي نفقت الدواجن بها غرقا وهي أصلا صور من تركيا

يجب أن يعي المصريون أن العالم سيرى كثيرا تقلبات شبيهة بما شاهدته بلادنا بسبب التغيُّر المناخي، وسوف تزداد مستقبليا الأعاصير والحرائق والفيضانات مؤثرة على العالم أجمع. في مثل هذه الظروف لا يستطيع أحد التغلب على الطبيعة عندما تنقلب بقسوة علي البشر: لا مصارف ولا استعدادات فقوة الطبيعة فوق كل شيء

ما حدث في مصر يكمن في أن الأمطار الغزيرة انهمرت بشدة في زمن قصير نتج عنها سيول جارفة، وهو ما تعرضت له مدن كثيرة في أوروبا في نفس الوقت، ففي انجلترا في ٣٠ ساعة فقط تجاوزت الأمطار ما يعادل نسبة شهر بالكامل من الأمطار. كما تعرضت إسبانيا للفيضانات بسبب نفس المناخ وتسببت في غرق أفراد عديدين، والفيضانات المفاجئة أيضا في إيطاليا تسببت في مقتل شخصيين. أما في فرنسا ففي ست ساعات سقطت أمطار توازي متوسط هطول أمطار لمدة شهرين، وفجّرت هذه الأمطار ضفاف الأنهار معرِّضة مناطق كثيرة للفيضانات

حتى البلاد التي تشهد أمطارا غزيرة دوما لا تستطيع مواجهة التغيُّر المناخي المفاجئ هذا فما بالك بمصر التي لا ترى إلا القليل منها؟

لم يهدأ المصريون إلا بعد أن شاهدوا صور الإعصار في الصحف العالمية. سمّي خبراء الأرصاد الجوية هذا الإعصار بميديكين "Medicane"، ويعني إعصار البحر المتوسط، ويأتي معه أمطار غزيرة رعدية وفيضانات على السواحل. عادة لا نرى هذا الإعصار إلا في المحيطات المفتوحة وليس في البحار المغلقة. هنا أدرك المصريون أن الأعاصير أكبر كثيرا مما يظنون وأنها فوق مقدرتهم وأن القادم ليس المعهود. لم تمنعهم هذه المعلومات من تسمية الإعصار "إعصار عصمت" أو "إعصار حمادة" مستمرين في خفة الدم المعهودة

يا مصريون، اجتهادكم في تحديد الأسباب وراء هذا المناخ ما هو إلا شيء مضحك ومؤسف في آن واحد. لا أحد يملك هذا اليقين المطلق إلا إن كان خبير أرصاد جوية، فلا تتحاملوا كثيرا على أيوب أفندي، فقد يخطئ في بعض الأوقات ولكنه يصيب في أحيان أخرى كثيرة. لابد من تقبُّل الأمر الواقع آملين ألا تنقلب الطبيعة علينا بشكل مفرط أو دائم

 

 

The new normal?

Al Ahram Weekly and Ahram Online

Is Egypt as vulnerable to the harsh realities of climate change as other countries, asks Azza Radwan Sedky?

Azza Radwan Sedky , Tuesday 12 Nov 2019

 

A wedding photograph went viral on social media. It was taken in a picturesque vineyard in California’s wine country, the bride and groom dressed to the “t”, and this while the sunset was red in the background, the horizon stoking in flames. 

More importantly, the bride and groom had put on hazard masks to avoid the smoke fumes in the air: they had ventured outside for the photograph, but soon had their wedding inside. It was a traumatic photograph that will live forever. 

There is nothing normal about the photograph, but it is indeed a new reality as climate change will likely increase the potential and the forcefulness of natural disasters. 

The current wildfire season in California is the worst on record. It has caused massive evacuations across the state, turning California into an inferno. In 2016, a similar wildfire swept through Fort McMurray in Alberta, Canada, destroying 2,400 homes and buildings and causing massive evacuations as large areas were demolished. Recent wildfire episodes are endless, and these are merely two examples.

However, it is not only wildfires that sweep across hard-hit countries. Natural disasters in the shape of flash floods, ravaging hurricanes, severe droughts and magnitude eight earthquakes that trigger massive tsunamis are occurring more frequently and more intensely everywhere.

Having prefaced my topic with this long introduction, we need to ask ourselves if Egypt, given its geographical location and climatic tendencies, is safe from such disasters? Is Egypt as vulnerable to the harsh climate as other countries? 

According to the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDDR), a global partnership managed by the World Bank, Egypt is susceptible to natural disasters like floods and wildfires, set at high risk, and tsunamis and earthquakes that have a medium potential of occurring.

Once we accept the fact that Egypt is as susceptible as any other country to some of the natural disasters that may occur, we will understand the inevitability of what happened during the third week of October this year. 

Egypt then faced what seemed like unprecedented torrential rain that caused flash floods. The sudden deluge disrupted normal life. Schools and universities saw classes cancelled, flights were delayed and ports and roads were closed, as tunnels filled with flooded cars. Many commuters were stuck in the streets for hours on end at the height of the rush hour, unable to budge because of the disruption caused by the rain.  

But what followed exhibited how many Egyptians are unaware of the potential for such disasters, and the fact that they may become the norm. This is understandable since such intensity of rain is unheard of in Egypt. The end result was that many Egyptians had to hang this volatile climate and its repercussions on a peg. Someone had to be blamed for the accumulation of water in the streets. 

Who can be blamed but an official of some sort? Soon vicious attacks swept social media. They focused on local governments, mayors and any official with some link to water management and drainage systems. According to the complaints on social media, lax and negligent bureaucrats did not meet their responsibilities, did not carry out their duties, and did not clean the gutters or the drains, but more importantly they did not forecast the ferocity of the storm either. 

After the traffic congestion lifted and having arrived at their homes safely breathing sighs of relief, many people then began a deluge of sarcasm and ridicule. Humour is part and parcel of Egyptian attributes; however, the mockery and embellishment exhibited this time round a new naiveté and simplicity.

People should be tuned in to the reality: the world will see weather fluctuations as witnessed recently again and again, and these fluctuations in the shape of hurricanes, fires and floods will ultimately affect the whole world. Sometimes, Mother Nature, when she cruelly turns on humans, becomes undefeatable; no gutter-cleaning or drainage-inspection can prepare for such sudden weather swings. 

The unprecedented torrential rains that befell Egypt in such a short span resulting in flash floods occurred simultaneously all over Europe. In areas of Britain, in just 24 hours rain accumulation exceeded that of an entire month. Flash floods in Italy killed two people. Spain suffered from severe floods that drowned several people as, according to the BBC, “streams became raging torrents.” 

In France, rivers burst their banks, and one town saw “198 mm of rain – about two months’ average rainfall – in just six hours”. The rain also turned the area surrounding the Eiffel Tower in Paris into a vacant deserted pool. Countries with usually heavy rainfall were unequipped and could not cope with the overwhelming elements, let alone Egypt which rarely witnesses such torrential weather.

As annual average temperatures increase, things will get worse, and unfortunately we will be unable to stop the effects of climate change. According to Floodlist, an EU-funded observatory, by the year 2050 flood losses in Europe will increase fivefold and be attributable mainly to climate change. Egypt is too close to Europe not to be affected by the same weather patterns.

Egyptians did not call it quits until they saw photographs of the recent hurricane in the international media. Meteorologists described it as a medicane, meaning a Mediterranean hurricane that causes heavy thunderstorms and flooding in coastal regions. Usually, the region does not see such hurricanes as they rarely happen in closed waters such as the Mediterranean, but the new normal is changing matters. Only then did Egyptians realise that hurricanes are far more catastrophic than they thought and that the same new normal may also reach Egypt. 

A word in the ears of Egyptians: your diligence in determining the reasons behind the October storm was amusing and unfortunate at the same time. Nobody, especially the lay-person, has an absolute certainty of why it happened; nobody can determine the causes of storms and hurricanes unless they are meteorologists. 

It’s time to accept the new normal, while hoping that Mother Nature does not turn her back on us ever so viciously or ever so often. 

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The writer is the author of Cairo Rewind on the First Two Years of Egypt’s Revolution, 2011-2013.

*A version of this article appears in print in the 14 November, 2019 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly.

via english.ahram.org.eg