Egypt

Egypt: Europe’s energy lifeline

Al Ahram Weekly

Ioannis Kotoulas

Wednesday 22 Feb 2023

Egypt is becoming Europe’s energy lifeline as a result of its major advantages as a global energy provider.

New realities are forming on the map of global geopolitics and energy cooperation, and Egypt’s new and increasing role is becoming more and more evident.

As Eastern Europe and the Black Sea have become areas of instability, the Mediterranean is emerging as a reliable new region for energy procurement towards the EU. If one looks at the emerging map of energy flows, the pattern of a new orientation from south to north that substitutes for the previous east to west direction is clear.

Egypt has four major advantages as an energy provider in the global energy market.

First, the country has huge natural gas deposits that form the bulk of its energy exports towards the EU. After achieving self-sufficiency in natural gas in 2018, Egypt has made great strides in a short time to emerge as a main energy provider by developing its export dynamics and diplomatic synergies.

Second, it is located in a highly strategic location to the immediate south of the EU and connected to it across the calm Mediterranean Sea.

Third, it has advanced infrastructure facilities for transporting and processing natural gas that include a network of 7,000 km of pipelines, a distribution network of 31,000 km, and 29 gas-treatment plants as well as two liquified natural gas (LNG) facilities in the Idku and Damietta plants. This is a specific advantage that other gas-exporting North African states do not enjoy.

Fourth and equally importantly, it enjoys a stable political environment that has been secured by the government of President Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi. This promotes international cooperation across three continents by bridging Europe, Asia, and Africa. All this means in essence that Egypt is becoming Europe’s energy lifeline.

If we examine Egypt’s energy potential more closely additional conclusions also emerge.

Egyptian LNG production has been steadily increasing, and in 2022 the country boosted its LNG exports by 14 per cent to reach eight million tons. Ninety per cent of this was delivered to EU markets, according to data presented by Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Tarek Al-Molla in November.

In 2021, seven million tons of LNG was exported, 80 per cent of it to the EU. The data clearly show that Egypt is keeping its side of the bargain by increasing energy exports to an EU that is under severe energy stress. Not only that, but Egypt’s energy exports could increase even more when aided by the four structural factors analysed above.

During the recent Egypt Petroleum Show (EGYPS 2023), held between 13 and 15 February, Al-Molla announced that the country expects to produce 7.5 million tons of LNG in 2023, as its plants have been operating at less than their capacity. They have spare capacity that can further increase the amount of LNG exported towards the EU, Al-Molla said, and EU Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson reaffirmed Egypt’s importance in addressing EU needs.

In the context of Egypt’s role as an essential energy provider for the EU, Greece’s importance has also been rising. Greece is the closest-lying EU state to Egypt and a valuable diplomatic partner. As the EU continues to face an important energy crisis, the cooperation of these two countries is more essential than ever.

Greece, with its Revithoussa LNG Terminal, is now a key European transit route and a country facilitating energy flows from the southern Mediterranean to mainland Europe. It is developing its own National Natural Gas Transmission System with new compressor stations that will allow for larger energy flows from the south to the north.

Greek grid operator DESFA is investing one billion euros to expand its network capacity by 2032, thus enabling Greece to quadruple its gas-export capacity. As a result, Greece will be able to handle 8.5 billion cubic metres of gas (bcm) annually by 2025, becoming a European gas hub that works in close cooperation with Egypt as the main gas exporter in the Mediterranean.

Greece, owing to its geographical position and its overlapping membership of the EU and the East Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF), can function both as a transit country for Egyptian energy exports and as a valuable diplomatic partner in the EU.

Effective cooperation on gas exports will benefit millions of customers in both Europe and Egypt and reduce prices in various related products and services, thereby easing the economic crisis that all states are going through during this internationally unstable period.

Egypt with its ever-increasing LNG exports is already the focal state assisting the EU during the present energy crisis. This is a fact that should be borne in mind in European decision-making circles, in order to develop new synergies of cooperation based on mutual respect and identical interests.

*The writer is a lecturer in geopolitics at the University of Athens in Greece.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 23 February, 2023 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly

 

Baghdad memories: what the first few months of the US occupation felt like to an Iraqi

This is an eye opener! (Read on; this is only a short excerpt of a long read: Baghdad memories: what the first few months of the US occupation felt like to an Iraqi) 

The Guardian

When I was 28, the US arrived in Baghdad. The soldiers were announced as liberators and their leaders talked of democracy. I watched the regime and Saddam statues fall, chaos reign and a sectarian war unfold. 

by Ghaith Abdul-Ahad

Tue 21 Feb 2023 06.00 GMT

On 9 April 2003, I stood on the roof of my building in Baghdad, looking at the clear sky. The city was quiet; the Americans had stopped their bombing early that morning. In the distance, I saw a helicopter, hanging low over the houses. Unlike the chubby Russian ones that we were used to, which swayed left and right like giant flying rams, this one was nimble, like an angry wasp.

Thirty-five years of Saddam Hussein’s rule had dissolved overnight, collapsing without a trace. Baghdad, that city of fear and oppression, was free for an hour, suspended between the departure of the dictator and the arrival of the occupiers.

In the years preceding the war I had been living in a small room, barely large enough to hold a single bed, a writing table and a trunk. A nook at one end housed the sink, the stove and the toilet. For decoration, I had painted one wall a bright orange-red, which amplified and radiated the hot Baghdad sunlight. The old air conditioner had died and I had no money to fix it. In the summer of 2002, the room was stifling hot, and I felt the walls were closing in on me. I hadn’t paid the rent for six months. As an architect working in private practice, I was paid $50 every few months. In the years of sanctions, I was doing ugly work for ugly people who had the money to afford their ugly houses. I wanted to leave the country, to travel and walk through the streets of different cities, but I was a military deserter, and without documentation I could not get a passport.

I had not been tortured by the mukhabarat, the regime intelligence service, nor did any of my family vanish into a mass grave, but like the rest of the nation, I was trapped with no hope and no prospects. What if, we wondered, the Leader were to become mortally ill one day? How would our lives change after his death? Would we be ruled by one of his sons? Would that be better than this? Worse? In the years before the invasion, I had felt that my life was seeping slowly away in that hot and oppressive place I called home. Now, aged 28, it seemed that a different life might be possible.

I went down to my room to listen to the news bulletin when the neighbour came knocking on my door. “The Americans are here,” he said with excitement.

“Yes, I heard on the radio that they had reached Hillah,” I said, referring to a city 60 miles south of Baghdad.

“Hillah?” the neighbour said with a grin. “They are here, down in the street.”

I went down, and I saw a few boat-like armoured amphibious vehicles spread around the intersection near my flat, as if the shores of Normandy lay just behind the buildings. They were slung with the soldiers’ large backpacks, covered in dust. Descending from one of these boats were American soldiers, like the ones we’d seen on TV, in my street, in my own city.

The soldiers spread across the road, knelt on a single knee and pointed their guns at us, the handful of people who stood watching them. Behind the soldiers came men dressed in blue vests and carrying big cameras. Their helmets bore the letters “TV”.

I sat on the kerb watching as the soldiers trained their guns at the buildings around them. One of the men in blue, tall with a bald head, and carrying two cameras with large zooms, was moving gingerly towards us, like a wildlife photographer approaching a herd of wild animals, not wanting to scare them away and yet not sure if they might charge him. He squatted a few feet in front of me and trained a long white lens at me; fuck off, I shooed him away, I didn’t want to become an item of news, another face of a defeated nation. The soldiers climbed back into their armoured boat-trucks and started driving down the road, past the national theatre and down Sadoon Street. A small crowd of men and children followed.

 

الدعوة عامة: روحوا زوروا مصر

الاهرام

السبت 27 من رجب 1444 هــ 18 فبراير 2023 السنة 147 العدد 49747

د. عزة رضوان صدقى

 

فاطمة سعيد، السوبرانو المصرية، غنّت لمصر فى أول حدث عام للمتحف المصرى الكبير، ودعت الأجانب لزيارة وطنها الأم، قائلة: الدعوة عامة: روحوا زوروا مصر. أتقدم

خطوة أبعد هنا وأوصى الزوار، بعد أن يأتوا للزيارة، بالبقاء

سألنى أحد قاطنى فانكوفر بكندا ذات مرة عما إذا كانت المعيشة فى مصر مُكلفة. أدركت بعد ذلك أنه كان يفكر بجدية فى قضاء نصف العام فى مكان آخر، لأن فانكوفر تجبره على إنفاق المزيد والحصول على القليل فى المقابل. قال لاحقًا إن الوقت قد حان لتقسيم العام بين فانكوفر ووجهة أقل تكلفة. كثير من الأمريكيين والكنديين يفعلون ذلك بالفعل

تتكلف أسرة مكونة من أربعة أفراد ما يقرب من ٥٠٠٠ دولار كندى شهريًا بدون إيجار للعيش فى فانكوفر. متوسط الإيجار لشقة من غرفة نوم واحدة هو ٢٥٠٠ دولار كندى. وهذا يعنى أن فانكوفر، على الرغم من كونها مدينة ساحرة، إلا أنها باهظة التكلفة

تبلغ التكاليف الشهرية لعائلة مكونة من أربعة أفراد ٥٢٥٠ دولارا أمريكيا بدون إيجار فى نيويورك. وتُقدّر قاعدة البيانات نامبيو أن المعيشة فى نيويورك أعلى بنسبة ٣٦٧ فى المئة من القاهرة، بينما الإيجار أعلى بنسبة ٢١٤٧ فى المئة من القاهرة

فى إنجلترا، تشير التقديرات إلى أن عائلة مكونة من أربعة أفراد تحتاج ٢٤٠٠ جنيه إسترلينى شهريًا بدون إيجار. كما تحتاج الأسرة المكونة من أربعة أفراد إلى حوالي٣٠٠٠ يورو شهريًا بدون إيجار للعيش فى فرنسا

هذه المدن باهظة الثمن تجبر ساكنيها على قضاء جزء من العام أو التقاعد فى مدن اقتصادية. ربما تكون المكسيك عامةً هى الخيار الأكثر تفضيلاً لأرباب أمريكا الشمالية، فيسافر إليها آلاف الكنديين والأمريكيين المتقاعدين، حتى وإن ظلت نفقات المعيشة مرتفعة هناك إلى حد ما. ماذا عن الأوروبيين؟ إلى أين يتجهون عندما يريدون السفر للخارج أو الاقتصاد فى التقاعد؟

قد تكون مصر خيارًا مناسبًا لمن يبحثون عن جهة دافئة وأقل تكلفة. نظرًا لأن سعر صرف الجنيه المصرى إلى البريطانى نحو 37 جنيه ونحو 30 جنيه للدولار الأمريكى، تظل تكلفة المعيشة المنخفضة فى مصر ميزة جذابة للغاية. يمكن للمغتربين المعيشة بمعاشاتهم التقاعدية التى تُدفع بالعملة الصعبة على وجه أكثر ترفهاً فى مدن مصر، بفضل نفقات الطعام والسكن المعقولة نسبياً

تعد مدن مثل دهب والجونة أماكن جذابة للغاية لأولئك الذين يسعون إلى المعيشة فى هدوء. المدينتان مشمستان، والزوار يسعدون بمودة أهلهم، والمدينتان على بعد أربع ساعات فقط بالطائرة من معظم المدن الأوروبية

مدينة دهب جذابة ومريحة لقاطنيها، ولهذا السبب اختار العديد من الروس والأوكرانيين والألمان والإيطاليين العيش هناك. وفقًا لشبكة سى إن إن تُعد دهب وجهة مغرية للغاية، لدرجة أن البعض جعلها موطنًا له بعد الزيارة بوقت قصير. ووفقًا لـشركة أتليس التى توفر الفيزات والتأشيرات للمغتربين إذا كنت تأمل أن تسبح فى الصباح الباكر فى البحر، ثم تنجز أعمالك أثناء تناول القهوة فى مساحة عمل عالمية المستوى، ثم ركوب الأمواج شراعيًا مع غروب الشمس، وأخيرا تناول المشروبات مع مجتمع الوافدين النابض بالحياة فإن دهب تناديك. ويوضح أيضًا أنه يمكنك إنفاق ما لا يزيد على 400 دولار شهريًا على الإيجار والمرافق والترفيه. ثم ان أسعار خطوط الهاتف المحمول والإنترنت هى من بين أدنى الأسعار فى العالم

على الرغم من أن الجونة مكان أكثر تكلفة، إلا أنها لا تزال ميسورة التكلفة بالنسبة للأجانب. تتميز الجونة بأشعة الشمس الدافئة على مدار العام ووسائل الراحة الممتازة، وقصدها يكمن فى رحلة جوية قصيرة من المدن الأوروبية إلى مطار الغردقة الدولي. يعتبر الآلاف من الأوروبيين الجونة موطنهم ويعيشون بشكل دائم فى هذه الواحة الخلابة

حتى القاهرة، رغم صخبها وازدحامها، تقدم فرصة رائعة للمغتربين الذين يهتمون بالاقتصاد فى النفقات. أحد المغتربين يقول فى مقال بعنوان مارك ـ مغترب كندى يعيش فى مصر، عن تكلفة المعيشة فى القاهرة. كانت رخيصة بشكل مذهل. كانت نوعية حياتى جيدة جدا. كان لدىّ شقة ضخمة بها ثلاث شرفات وثلاث غرف نوم مقابل 250 دولارًا أمريكيًا شهريًا فى جزء جميل جدًا من المدينة. يمكنك أن تأخذ سيارة أجرة إلى أى مكان تريد، ولن يكلفك ذلك شيئًا. كان الطعام والمنتجات واللحوم رخيصة بشكل يبعث على السخرية. يمكن توصيل كل شيء إلى منزلك ... حتى البيرة. وكان ذلك حتى قبل التخفيض الأخير لقيمة الجنيه المصري

مصر بلد غنى بالتاريخ والمغامرة، وشعبها مرحِّب وودود، فيأتى الزوار، ويبقى الكثير منهم للتوفير والاقتصاد

روحوا زوروا مصر.. وربما يروق لكم البقاء فيها

لمزيد من مقالات د. عزة رضوان صدقى

 

 

 

 

A disaster transcending political divides

Al Ahram Weekly

Azza Radwan Sedky

Tuesday 14 Feb 2023

When disasters like last week’s earthquake befall a region, the world should stand with the beleaguered and disregard differences, writes Azza Radwan Sedky

The world stood still as a devastating magnitude 7.8 earthquake, the deadliest this century, killed over 28,000 people, left five million in precarious conditions, and flattened entire sections of towns and cities in ravaged northern Syria and Turkey. The number of victims is expected to continue to rise in the coming days as rescue efforts dwindle.

A calamity of this magnitude deserves the world’s undivided attention, but it seems that some, even during such disasters, cannot set aside old differences.

Egypt, however, reacted swiftly and spontaneously. President Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi offered to do whatever was possible to support the two beleaguered countries. During a press conference with Croatian President Zoran Milanovich who was visiting Egypt, Al-Sisi expressed his solidarity with both nations, saying “I express my sincere condolences to the people of Syria and Turkey and the families of the victims of this devastating earthquake that struck the Eastern Mediterranean region.”

President Al-Sisi then called Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to offer condolences and humanitarian aid, overlooking the strained relations between the two countries that have been in place since the removal of former President Mohamed Morsi in 2013. Presidential Spokesman Ahmed Fahmi said that President Al-Sisi had stressed Egypt’s solidarity with the brotherly Turkish people, noting that humanitarian assistance and relief will be delivered to help Turkey overcome the consequences of the disaster.  

In a similar call to Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, President Al-Sisi reiterated Egypt’s solidarity and his intention of directing all possible aid to Syria. This was the first telephone call between an Egyptian leader and the Syrian government since the Syrian Civil War erupted and since Al-Sisi himself took office in 2014.

Five military planes carrying emergency medical aid were sent to Turkey and Syria to contribute to relief efforts.

During a crisis of such a size, aid to rescue lives, alleviate suffering, and maintain human dignity must become the sole focus, disregarding earlier conflicts and disagreements. Egypt did just this. However, not all countries behave in a similar humanitarian fashion.

Al-Ahram Weekly editorial of 7 February said that “the shock of the deaths of thousands of people while asleep in their homes, entire families vanishing, and massive damage to property is a time for world leaders and governments to set aside their political differences and unite in expressing solidarity. Facing such a heavy death toll reminds us of our shared human destiny and how helpless we all are in the face of natural disasters.”

There was an immediate outpouring of international assistance to Turkey, offering search and rescue teams, medical equipment, tents, and food. Just about all the European countries and other countries, too, were there for Turkey.

The newspaper Balkan Insight said that “dozens of European and Balkan countries have responded to Turkey’s appeal for help.” According to UK satellite channel Sky News, the UK sent 76 search and rescue specialists with equipment and dogs, as well as an emergency medical team, to Turkey.

The US dispatched two 79-person search and rescue teams to assist Turkish officials. Hundreds of Los Angeles County firefighters and structural engineers participated in the response efforts. Italy, France, Spain, and many other European countries pledged support.

But in Syria, on the other side of the border, things were different. BBC journalist Quentin Sommerville in an article entitled “No tents, no aid, nothing: Why Syrians feel forgotten” wrote that “I had just crossed the border from four days in the city of Antakya, Turkey, where the aid response is a cacophony — ambulance sirens blare all night long, dozens of earth movers roar and rip apart concrete 24 hours a day. Among the olive groves in the village of Bsania, in Syria’s Idlib province, there’s mostly silence.”

Those who came to Syria’s aid were Russia, Iran, and the Arab countries, in addition to China, India, and Venezuela, an obvious pattern of who helps whom.

The bottom line is that the US and the rest of the western world remains adamantly against the Al-Assad regime in Syria, considering any form of normalisation as unacceptable. According to the US AP wire service, “the government of Bashar Al-Assad in Damascus is still a pariah in much of the international community, sanctioned by the US and European countries, which are reluctant to route aid directly through the government.”

US State Department Spokesperson Ned Price said that “it would be ironic, if not even counterproductive, for us to reach out to a government that has brutalised its people.” And yet the US is doing pretty much the same by not providing support today to those who critically need its care and backing. The sanctions should not impede aid.

The UN Special Envoy to Syria told reporters that “the emergency response must not be politicised” and that aid was needed to get to areas controlled by Damascus as well as those held by the rebels.

In November 2022, Alena Douhan, a Belarusian law professor and independent human-rights expert at the UN, called for an end to all sanctions on Syria. “I urge the immediate lifting of all unilateral sanctions that severely harm human rights and prevent any efforts for early recovery,” she said. Douhan had spent some time in Syria and in her end-of-mission statement she suggested that the sanctions on Syria “may amount to crimes against humanity”.

Similarly, US journalist Matthew Petti in a blog has compared the differences between the current response to the disaster in Syria and other earthquake emergencies in previous decades. “There was once a time when earthquake relief transcended, and even helped mend, political divisions. From the late 1980s to the early 2000s, political adversaries extended a hand to each other several times during severe natural disasters.”

The writer is former professor of communication based in Vancouver, Canada.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 16 February, 2023 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly

An open invitation

Al Ahram Weekly

Azza Radwan Sedky

Tuesday 7 Feb 2023

Egypt is a convenient and inexpensive option for those looking for a warm but less-expensive holiday or even retirement destination, says Azza Radwan Sedky

Egyptian soprano Fatma Said serenaded audiences at the first public event to be held at the new Grand Egyptian Museum (GEM) last month, inviting people to visit her home country by saying “open invitation: come and visit Egypt.” 

I could go a step further and recommend that visitors decide to stay in Egypt after making a first short visit. In fact, many foreigners choose to do just that.

My accountant in Vancouver in Canada once asked me if it was costly to live in Egypt. My response was an adamant “no!” I realised afterwards that he was thinking of spending half the year elsewhere, not necessarily in Egypt but just to be able to afford to live for the remaining six months in Vancouver. 

He later said that he felt it was time to split the year between Vancouver and a less-expensive location. Many North Americans choose to do just that.

It costs a family of four close to CA$5,000 (about $3,730) a month not counting rent to live in Vancouver, while it costs a single person around CA$1,300. The average rent for a one-bedroom apartment is now CA$2,500. It goes without saying that Vancouver, though exquisite, is an exorbitantly expensive city.

The cost of living is even higher in New York across the border in the US. A family of four has estimated monthly costs of $5,250 without counting rent. A single person’s estimated monthly costs are $1,431 without rent. In fact, Numbeo, a cost-of-living database, estimates that New York is 367.1 per cent more expensive than Cairo, while rent is 2,147 per cent higher. 

In the UK, it is estimated that it costs a family of four £2,400 a month to live not counting rent. A family of four needs around €3,000 per month excluding rent to live in parts of France.

Such prohibitively expensive locations force residents to spend part of the year elsewhere or to retire in other countries. Fortunately, many inexpensive retirement havens exist around the world. 

Mexico is possibly the most desirable option for North Americans. Thousands of Canadian retirees, or “snowbirds” as they have come to be known, travel southwards to sunnier climes such as Palm Springs in California and Miami in Florida. However, living expenses remain high in those destinations despite the warmth that many Canadians and Americans like to enjoy. 

What about Europeans? Where do they head when they want to live or retire abroad?

Egypt may be a convenient and inexpensive option for those looking for a warm but less-expensive destination. Egypt’s low cost of living remains an enticing feature. Expats can extend their pensions and social security benefits to last longer in cities around Egypt. With the exchange rate of the Egyptian pound to the British pound now being £0.027 (LE37.20 to one British pound) and $0.033 (LE30) to one US dollar, Egypt is very appealing to those looking for a destination in which they can retire with a high quality of life and a low cost of living.

The US news network CNBC says that “a recent analysis by personal-finance site GOBankingRates found that Egypt is the destination for retirees who want to stretch their social security benefits, thanks to affordable food and housing expenses.” It also clarifies that US citizens residing in Egypt are exempt from US taxes on their benefits.

Cities such as Dahab and ElGouna are attractive spots for those seeking affordability amidst tranquility. Both cities are sunny, friendly, and, just as importantly, inexpensive options for retirees paid in hard currency, and they are a mere four-hour flight from most European cities. 

The Red Sea coastal town of Dahab is inviting, laid back, and inexpensive, which is why many Russians, Ukrainians, Germans, and Italians have opted to live there. 

According to the US network CNN, “Dahab is a destination so alluring that some have opted to make it their home soon after visiting.” According to the Atlys site, “if early morning swims in the Red Sea, getting work done over drip coffee at a world-class coworking space, kitesurfing as the sun goes down, and drinks with a vibrant expat community sound good to you, then Dahab is calling your name.”

 It explains that “if you do your homework, you can get away with spending not more than $400 a month on rent, amenities, and entertainment. The prices of mobile-phone plans and Internet access are among the lowest in the world.”

Though ElGouna is a costlier and fancier spot, it remains very affordable for foreigners. It boasts year-round sunshine, excellent amenities, and is just one hop on a plane from European cities to Hurghada International Airport.  

Thousands of Europeans already call ElGouna their home away from home and live permanently in this restful oasis. Journalist Michael Turtle in his travel blog “The Travel Turtle” says that expats “come from all around the world for different reasons. Some buy a property here as a holiday home, somewhere to escape to for a month or two each year when they need time away.”

Turtle talks to a couple on his blog who were originally from Yorkshire, England, and who had a business in Luxor, another warm spot in Egypt, but opted to move to ElGouna because of the downturn in tourism that came with the Ukraine war. They relocated their business, a restaurant that serves authentic English food called Puddleduck to ElGouna. They say that many other people have bought property in the city, and some come for maybe six weeks or more to the city and keep returning. 

Even Cairo, though noisy and congested, offers an amazing opportunity for expats who prefer to be frugal with their expenses. The Internet site Expat Arrivals talked to a Canadian who had chosen to work as a teacher in Egypt who told the site that “the cost of living in Cairo was amazingly cheap. My quality of life was very good. I had an enormous apartment with three balconies and three bedrooms for $250 a month in a very trendy part of town. You could take a taxi to wherever you want, and it would cost you nothing. Food, produce, and meat from the grocery store was ridiculously cheap. Everything could be delivered to your house… even beer.” And that was even before the recent devaluation of the Egyptian pound.

There is much to see and do in Egypt, as Egypt is a country rich in history and adventure and its people are welcoming and friendly. Many visitors to the country decide to settle here having seen how inexpensive and affordable it is. For them, Egypt is the perfect spot for expats to stretch their bucks.

So here is another “open invitation” – come to visit Egypt and maybe think about staying on. 

---

* The writer is former professor of communication based in Vancouver, Canada.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 9 February, 2023 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly

«التعاون فى عالم مجزَّأ»

الاهرام

السبت 13 من رجب 1444 هــ 4 فبراير 2023 السنة 147 العدد 49733

د. عزة رضوان صدقى

كان شعار المنتدى الاقتصادى العالمى لعام ٢٠٢٣ هو: «التعاون فى عالم مجزَّأ»، وهو عنوان مُلائم لما يشهده العالم اليوم. انعقد المنتدى فى منتصف يناير فى دافوس بسويسرا وسط أزمات متعددة، وبدعوة عاجلة للعمل الجماعى والتعاون. اليوم، نعاين هذه الأزمات ونتفحص عواقبها

التحديات التى تواجه العالم اليوم خطيرة وأثرها فتَّاك، فقد تردد صدى عواقب جائحة كورونا وحرب أوكرانيا فى جميع أنحاء العالم، ونجم عنها أزمات إمداد للطاقة وللغذاء والتضخم مرتفعة. كل ذلك أدى إلى أزمة تكلفة معيشة حادة على الأفراد

الجائحة أدت إلى انكماش اقتصادى وانخفاض الإنتاجية، على سبيل المثال لا الحصر فى الاستثمار ومنافذ السياحة وسلاسل التوريد. مع الظروف الراهنة للجائحة بدأ الوضع الاقتصادى فى انتعاش طفيف، لكن تستمر فصائل من المتحور شديدة العدوى فى الانتشار. هذا فى حين أن رفع الصين المفاجئ للقيود واستئناف السفر الجوي، أدى إلى زيادة عدد الإصابات، وقد يؤدى إلى عودة ظهور الجائحة. قد نستنتج أن العالم لم ينتهِ بعد من الجائحة حتى الآن

بالإضافة إلى ذلك، تستمر التوترات الجيوسياسية فى تشكيل الاقتصاد العالمي. على وجه الخصوص، الحرب الأوكرانية ضربة قاسية للعالم بأسره، وتسببت فى تباطئ الاقتصاد العالمي. تعتبر كلٌ من روسيا وأوكرانيا منتجين رئيسيين لسلع أساسية؛ وروسيا منتج رئيسى للطاقة. وبالتالي، أدت اضطرابات الحرب إلى ارتفاع جنونى فى أسعار الطاقة والغذاء، مما زاد فى انعدام الأمن الغذائى، وزاد من الجوع والتوترات الاجتماعية العالمية

ونتيجة لذلك، زادت تكاليف الغذاء والطاقة بأكثر من الضعف مقارنة بمتوسط ٩,٢فى المئة المسجل بين عامي٢٠١٠ و٢٠٢٠، ولا يبدو أن هناك أى نهاية تلوح فى الأفق للحرب، على الأقل ليس فى المستقبل القريب. والعواقب تتوالى والتضخم هو أكثر العواقب شدة مع ارتفاعه إلى منسوب غير مسبوق، يهدد الاستقرار المالى للأفراد ويستنفد دخولهم، وبعبارة أخرى يتسبب فى تضاؤل القوة الشرائية لدخلهم. والخوف هو أن التضخم قد يسوء قبل أن يتحسن. فقد وصل التضخم فى الدول الأوروبية ما بين ١٠ و٢٠ فى المئة. وللحد من معدل التضخم تلجأ الدول الى رفع أسعار الفائدة التى، فى حد ذاتها، تُسبب الركود وانخفاض الاستثمار

والأهم، أن هذه العواقب لايتم تقاسمها بالتساوي، بل على العكس تمامًا فإن ذوى الدخل المحدود والأجور الثابتة هم الأكثر تضررًا. هذا بينما على المستوى الدولي، هناك عدد قياسى من البلدان النامية فى حالة ركود مفرط، والعديد منها معرض لأزمات اقتصادية

لن يكون ٢٠٢٣ أفضل بكثير من ٢٠٢٢، عام تباطأ فيه الاقتصاد العالمى عامةً. فلا تزال حرب أوكرانيا مستمرة، ولا يزال الوباء يمثل خطراً، لذلك سوف يتفشى الركود. فى الواقع، مع استمرار تراجع الاقتصاد العالمى وتباطؤ النمو فى جميع أنحاء العالم، سينزلق العالم إلى ركود اقتصادى، بعد عامين فقط من الركود الأخير المرتبط بالوباء، حيث يتوقع صندوق النقد الدولى تباطؤ النمو الاقتصادى العالمى إلى ٢.٧٪ خلال عام ٢٠٢٣، ورفعها فى أحدث تقاريره إلى 2٫9 في المئة

إذن، ما الذى يخبِّئه المستقبل للعالم، وكيف سوف يتعامل العالم مع ارتفاع أسعار الغذاء والوقود والتضخم المرتفع الحالي؟

العام أو العامان المقبلان سوف يجلبان المزيد من النمو المنكمش وتكاليف المعيشة المرتفعة. على المستوى المحلى للدول، ستضطر الشركات إلى خفض التكاليف وتقليل النفقات التشغيلية مع تحمل الفقراء العبء الأكبر. كما قد تؤدى الأزمات إلى تفاقم الاضطرابات والعوائق والمسئوليات المجتمعية

على المستوى العالمى، كما قالت المديرة العامة لصندوق النقد الدولى، كريستالينا جورجيا، نحن نعيش فى عالم أكثر عرضة للصدمات، ونحتاج إلى قوة المجموعة للتعامل مع الصدمات القادمة. وحول كيفية مساعدة البلدان فى مواجهة الأزمات وعواقبها، صرح ديفيد مالباس، رئيس مجموعة البنك الدولى، قائلا: تعمل مجموعة البنك الدولى على الاستجابة للأزمات بنحو ١٧٠ مليار دولار لتلبية الاحتياجات الواسعة النطاق للبلدان العميلة. بين أبريل ٢٠٢٢ ويونيو ٢٠٢٣. ويواصل: تحتاج الاقتصادات الهشة والمتأثرة بالصراعات إلى الاستثمار وقطاع خاص نشط لخلق فرص العمل وتوليد النمو الاقتصادي

نأمل أن يخفف منفذو شعار التعاون فى منتدى دافوس بعض الأعباء التى تُسببها أزمات اليوم. لكن للأسف، لم يبتكر أى من هؤلاء الاقتصاديين البارزين طرقًا ملموسة للتخفيف من الظروف المتدهورة. التعاون هو رد فعل جيد، لكنه ليس حلا. خلاصة القول: يجب أن تتبدد الأزمتان اللتان تسببتا فى المعضلات الحالية حتى يتمكن العالم من التغلب على تداعياتهما، قد نكون قد أخذنا الخطوات الأولى للتفوق على الجائحة، لكن حرب أوكرانيا مازالت فى ذروتها، والقائمون عليها بعيدون عن الواقع

لمزيد من مقالات د. عزة رضوان صدقى

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Egypt, Russia plan to increase share of settlements in national currencies

AzerNews

 2 February 2023 08:11 (UTC+04:00)

Egypt and Russia intend to increase the share of settlements in national currencies, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry announced on Tuesday speaking at a joint press conference with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

"We have long been working on building proper arrangements that will allow us, in the spirit of greater sovereignty, to use them [national currencies] in our trading activities," he said, adding "We plan to expand the volume of transactions in these currencies."

The minister also added that the parties still have a series of consultations on this issue and both states are aimed at further work in this direction.

He also said that the Egyptian authorities expect supplies of Russian grain to continue and be increased. "Russia is one of the key grain suppliers to the global market. This is one of our staple food products, and we expect its supplies to continue," he said. "We aim not only to maintain the current pace and volume of supplies, but also to further increase them, as well as to expand the nomenclature of trade turnover in other directions," the minister noted.

Shoukry also focused on the growth of trade turnover between Russia and Egypt, which roughly equaled $6 bln in 2022, adding that the parties would be searching for new directions to expand economic cooperation.