Israel is intent on levelling Gaza, and, in the process, will kill thousands of civilians more. However, like all other wars, this war will end, too, at one point. What happens then? This is a thorny issue that does not have a simplistic answer.
For years on end, Israel bombed Gaza ferociously only to be followed by a fragile ceasefire. After each barrage of hostilities, things would then return to the bizarre normal that existed since 2007, where Gazans lived in an open-air prison. Never did the ceasefire move beyond being just that, a ceasefire, and the tragic vicious cycle went on and on.
This time things are different; everything about this war is different. Hamas started off by killing thousands of Israelis; Israel retaliated by killing over 13,000 civilians thus far. The number of casualties on both sides is unprecedented. However, in the process, the world is suddenly becoming more aware of the plight of the Palestinians, with many calling for a change to the status quo, the status quo that created today’s calamity.
So, what will become of Gaza? Who is willing to take over an uninhabitable shell and a people filled with agony, despair, and fury? And whose ground troops are willing to take over and possibly pay a hefty penalty?
A set of unappealing scenarios are provided here.
One scenario is for Israel to remain in Gaza and take over the governing and the overseeing of the Strip. Israel may consider this option though the Israelis themselves are not united on this front. Some senior Israeli officials have repeatedly indicated that they have no desire to reoccupy Gaza.
Others vow to take security responsibility of Gaza after the war. Prof Jacob Nagel, a former national security adviser to the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, insists that Israel must maintain responsibility over the Strip, that it cannot risk relinquishing security control over Gaza. “No matter which entity will take responsibility for Gaza’s civil affairs, Israel will be the full security authority.” And Israeli Finance Minister, Bezalel Smotrich, said, “It’s not like we’re going to destroy Hamas and another body will come along.” A presence to prevent any Hamas groupings from reforming may be what Israel believes is a better option, which is why it is difficult for Israel to let go of Gaza and maybe allow Hamas militants to come out of the woodwork to cause more damage.
It goes without saying, this option will be totally unacceptable by the Palestinians, since it is a return to a full-fledged Israeli occupation.
Moreover, once a people lose so many of their loved ones, they become more attuned to getting even and dying for the sake of the cause. Hence, we may be seeing the birth of a new breed of Hamas militants. Khaled Elgindy, the director the Middle East Institute’s program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli affairs says, “In the same way that Israelis have this desire for revenge, we can assume that that same human impulse is going to be present on a much more massive scale among Palestinians.”
Chances are Gazans will make the Israeli occupation of Gaza very strenuous. In this scenario, Israel visualizes a demilitarized Gaza, with no Hamas to fend for it, but the vicious cycle will continue as the IDF, the Israeli Defence Forces, will suffer sporadic but ongoing losses. What Israel doesn’t realize is that suffering breeds hatred, and the unprecedented hardships the Gazans, and the Palestinians in the West Bank, too, endured will haunt the occupiers.
Scenario One will fail miserably.
A multinational force, including Egyptian and other Arab forces, to run the Strip is another scenario. However, Arab nations will be hesitant to partake in such a venture as it is another version of occupation especially to the Gazans. Egypt and the Arabs believe that Gaza and the West Bank should be controlled by the Palestinians. And I doubt Israel would agree to a UN-led peacekeeping force.
According to the Wall Street Journal, President El-Sisi rejected a proposal for Egypt to manage security in Gaza until the Palestinian Authority can take over after the end of the war.
Still, Ami Ayalon, the former chief of Israeli domestic intelligence agency Shin Bet says, “I can see Egyptian, Jordanian, and Saudi soldiers with the international community controlling the region during an interim stage, and a huge amount of money that will come from the Emirates and the Saudis in order to reconstruct,” a farcical way of looking at the destruction Israel is causing; it destroys and awaits the Arab community to pay for fixing the destruction.
Again, this doesn’t sound like a feasible option.
The Palestinian Authority (PA) may be asked to run the Strip, which would be an ideal outcome. The PA has managed to survive the Israeli oppression in the West Bank, and Gazans may accept the Palestinian Authority, but Israel rejects this option, and it may stick to its guns in refusing it, for it views all Palestinians, whether they are Hamas or the PA, as the same entity. In any case, the Palestinian Authority is reluctant to oversee Gaza unless a comprehensive agreement that includes the West Bank is in the works. Besides, it does not want to come across as a complicit Israeli supporter willing to do its dirty job.
The US is enthusiastic for the Palestinian Authority to return to Gaza and wants Israel to leave Gaza once the war ends. Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, said “Gaza should be overseen by the Palestinian Authority.” This scenario “must include the Palestinian people’s voices and aspirations at the center of post-crisis governance in Gaza,” he said. “It must include Palestinian-led governance and Gaza unified with the West Bank under the Palestinian Authority,” offering a strong signal about what the US sees as its preferred culmination to the war between Israel and Hamas.
This is the best solution since it may ultimately lead to a two-state solution. Egypt is of the same view; that no settlement may occur for the Palestinian cause but the two-state solution. However, it will be extremely difficult to convince the Israelis of such an option, which creates a very complicated challenge for the US. Would the US be able to compel Israel to take that route? This is very doubtful.
All the above options are dicey and are not agreeable to all parties. Still, what comes next must not be akin to the old, despaired scenario if the world doesn’t want a repeat of what happened in October 2023.
A viable “Day-After” is still not entirely distinguishable.
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