Al Ahram Weekly
Dina Ezzat , Friday 16 Feb 2024
Egypt is considering its reaction in case of an Israeli offensive against Rafah
After escaping the Israeli death machinary, displaced Gazans fear the worst an impending strike on Rafah. (photo: AFP)As Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu threatens an assault on Rafah, the southern city to which half of the Palestinian population has fled, Egyptian officials are pushing for a truce that could pause Israeli attacks and limit the scope of any offensive.
“We are facing a tough week, or rather a tough two weeks,” said an official involved in the talks. “We are racing against time and against [Israeli] imprudence, but nobody can predict what Netanyahu will do. At the end of the day, he wants to keep the war going because he knows that his political career is over the day after the war.”
While acknowledging the international outcry against Netanyahu’s planned offensive — this week US and EU officials said that they need to reconsider arms supplies to Israel — the source said it did not amount to effective political pressure.
Over the last few days Egypt has hosted delegations from Hamas and Israel to discuss a truce which the official says “is still possible”. Cairo is also working with Jordan, Qatar, and the US to push for a deal under which Hamas would release the remaining Israeli hostages in return for a suspension of Israeli offensives, the release of Palestinian prisoners, the entry of humanitarian aid and safe passage for Palestinians trapped in Rafah to move northward. A possible element of the deal that remains unlikely, the source said, is a safe exit for Hamas leaders to Qatar.
“This is an intense process and there are no guarantees,” conceded the source. “We are racing against time to try and avert an Israeli ground offensive in Rafah.”
Rafah straddles Egypt’s border with Gaza. Originally a city of around a quarter million people, it is now hosting more than half of the Palestinian population displaced by Israel’s carpet bombing and ground offensive.
Netanyahu claims that Rafah is where the remaining Israeli hostages are being held and the base of the Hamas leaders he has vowed to eliminate.
According to the Egyptian source, while there is no way that Netanyahu will refrain from attacking Rafah, “what we are trying to do is avert a ground invasion.”
In press statements earlier this week, Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukri said that the threatened Israeli offensive will have “disastrous consequences”.
An Egyptian humanitarian source who spoke on Monday said that there is genuine concern in Cairo about what an Israeli ground offensive means for Egypt.
“We are talking about a wide range of concerns depending on the scenario of the attack,” he said.
If Israeli forces “go hard on Rafah” it would mean “thousands of people killed and wounded every day”.
“This will mean neighbouring countries, including Egypt, will have to set up emergency operations to provide medical treatment on a large scale.” The source added that in the case of an ongoing attack on Rafah, it will be dangerous for Egyptian ambulances to try to get the wounded out of Gaza “because of the risk to the lives of the teams”.
Israel could also use the offensive to drive as many Palestinians as possible out of Rafah and into Egypt. “This means a huge flow of Palestinians, including the wounded, across the borders in a chaotic way and in the absence of adequate shelter, food and treatment.”
Since the beginning of the war on 7 October, Egyptian officials have been talking about strengthened security measures on the border with Egypt. In the words of one, “it is practically impossible for Palestinians to cross the border.” Yet speaking on Sunday, the same source said that if the Israeli offensive was to cause a breach in the border then “anything could happen, including hundreds of thousands of Palestinians crossing.”
Official sources say that Egypt has made it clear to Israel and the US that it will not tolerate the forced displacement of Palestinians into Egypt. They also say Cairo has received “some assurances” from Israeli officials that Israel will not cause a breach that would allow the unorganised entry of Palestinians, but note the assurances did not come from the office of the prime minister and do not amount to a commitment.
With no safe passage for civilians to move north from Rafah, concerns that the border with Egypt will be breached are growing, making reaching an agreement on safe exit routes a priority in the talks Egyptian officials have been having with their Israeli and American counterparts.
A UN source said Tuesday that the international organisation is consulting with Israel over the matter. “We have something that could be worked out to avoid more bloodshed,” he said. The UN Security Council was scheduled to meet and discuss the situation in Gaza on Tuesday.
According to the official sources, Egypt has also received “assurances but not commitments” from Israel that any Israeli military presence in the Philadelphi Corridor on the border between Egypt and Gaza will be temporary and not violate the security accords that have bound Egypt and Israel since the 1979 Peace Treaty. In a press statement Ahmed Abu Zeid, spokesperson for the Foreign Ministry, warned that Israel needs to stick to the legal parameters that determine its movement in the corridor.
Prior to its unilateral withdrawal from Gaza in 2005 Israel maintained a military presence in the corridor in line with the measures stipulated in the Peace Treaty.
A Cairo-based foreign diplomat said Cairo had rebuffed an Israeli offer for coordinated management of security measures of the Philadelphi Corridor, adding that the Israeli military appears keen not to cross Cairo’s red lines.
Other foreign diplomats in Cairo say Egypt and Israel have managed to show a great deal of restraint in their public discourse throughout the 130 days of the war, consistently avoiding any open confrontations.
While the Egyptian-Israeli dialogue, aided by the US and Qatar, which led to the week-long truce last November that allowed for the release of Palestinian prisoners in return for Israeli hostages is ongoing, the same diplomats warn it will not avert an Israeli offensive against Rafah. It could, however, impact on the scale of any offensive, thus sparing Palestinian lives and averting a massive refugee crisis.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 15 February, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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