Al Ahram Weekly (Excerpt: AIPAC and the US Election)
Sahar Zahran in Washingtom DC , Wednesday 21 Aug 2024
The Jewish vote will be one of the factors in this year’s US presidential elections, with the lobby group the American Israel Public Affairs Committee putting pressure on both candidates to support Israel.
As the presidential elections approach in the US in November, increasing attention is focusing on Jewish-American voters and lobbying organisations such as the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) as potential determinants of the results of the polls.
The US Jewish community, though small and making up only around two per cent of the population, is one of the most influential groups in US politics, in part because of its concentration in crucial states such as New York and Florida and in part because it tends to have higher than average rates of political participation.
As the campaigns heat up, the candidates are making pitches for the “Jewish vote.” That was obviously the purpose of Republican Party candidate Donald Trump’s recent remark about Israel being “so tiny” and suggesting it should be made bigger.
He also claimed that his Democratic Party rival Kamala Harris had received $5 million from AIPAC for her campaign. While the claim has not been corroborated, it has fed the growing focus on the connection between US politicians and pro-Israel lobbies and, specifically, the role of AIPAC in US elections.
Historically, Jewish-American voters have leaned towards the Democratic Party out of sympathy with its liberal outlook. In the 2020 presidential elections, about 71 per cent of Jewish voters supported the Democratic Party candidate. However, with divisions sharpening within the party over Washington’s support for Israel and its policies on other Middle East issues, there have been signs of a shift among Jewish voters towards the Republican Party.
This trend is not new, but it became more pronounced during Trump’s first term in office because of his strong pro-Israel bias, as reflected in his decisions to move the US Embassy in Israel to Occupied Jerusalem and to recognise the Occupied Golan as part of Israel.
While those policies were welcomed by conservative and Orthodox Jewish groups in the US, many of whom favour Republican outlooks in general, the majority of the US Jewish community continued to support the Democratic Party because of its positions on domestic concerns, especially with regard to social and economic issues.
Since its establishment in 1951, AIPAC has become one of the most powerful lobby groups in Washington. Its aim is to strengthen US-Israel relations by influencing US policies and supporting candidates who show a strong commitment to Israel.
It exercises its influence through a broad network of donors who make sizeable contributions to financing the campaigns of favoured politicians. The organisation also hosts annual fundraising events and arranges private meetings with politicians. These and other activities are designed to ensure that Israel remains a top priority for decision-makers in Washington. In short, AIPAC is a key player in US elections.
In the opinion of Mark Millman, a prominent US Jewish political analyst, remarks like those made by Trump could rebound against his campaign as they could be perceived as simply gambits to exploit the question of Israel for political ends. He believes that their effect will be to increase divisions within the US Jewish community rather than increase support for Trump.
Aaron David Miller, a political analyst and former US State Department adviser, noted that Trump’s jab at Harris regarding the alleged millions of AIPAC dollars that have gone into her campaign’s coffers may signal a shift in his political rhetoric on Israel.
Trump may be trying to downplay his support for Israel during his presidency if he is elected in November in order to appeal to voters who are frustrated at the Biden administration’s current policies towards the Middle East, Miller suggested. He believes that if this is indeed Trump’s strategy, it could backfire and alienate many Jewish voters, especially liberals.
According to the Washington Post newspaper, Harris could neutralise the impacts of Trump’s remarks among US Jewish voters if she strengthens her image as a candidate who can defend Israeli interests without having to rely on AIPAC funding. However, increased pressure from the Trump camp could force her to rethink her strategy and reaffirm her unwavering commitment to supporting Israel.
Paul Salem, president of the Middle East Institute in Washington, believes that Trump is positioning himself as the staunchest supporter not just of Israel, but also of the Israeli right, as indicated by his recent remark suggesting his support for a “Greater Israel.”
At the same time, Trump is trying to portray Harris and the Democratic Party as “anti-Israel” and “far left,” Salem said. But he doubts that this strategy will succeed in drawing many American Jews away from the Democratic Party, which they have traditionally supported.
Salem has observed a slight shift in the political leanings of Jewish voters in the US, with their support for the Democratic Party dropping by three to four percentage points, however, something which he attributes in part to the impact of the current Israeli war on Gaza.
Nevertheless, while the numbers suggest a small gain for the Republicans, they may also reflect another phenomenon. Many young Jewish voters in the US are disaffected not just with the Biden administration’s policies towards the conflict in Gaza but also by the unquestioning support Israel receives from both the Democratic and Republican parties.
This year’s presidential elections in the US may be the first in which the question of Palestine has played a significant role in influencing the outcome, Salem told Al-Ahram Weekly.
The state of Michigan, for example, has a large percentage of Arab and Muslim voters who for the most part support Democratic Party candidates. However, this year, many of them joined a campaign using the slogan “uncommitted” signifying that they would not commit to vote for the Democratic Party candidate until they get genuine pledges that she will not continue the current administration’s policies on Gaza.
Even though representing only a small percentage of voters, this campaign could make or break a candidate’s prospects in a swing state such as Michigan.
Hamas has put the Palestinian cause at the forefront of the presidential election campaigns in the US, Salem said. Its action last October triggered a brutal Israeli response that has since precipitated an international outcry not just against the injustices inflicted against Palestinian civilians but also against Washington’s political and material support for the war on Gaza.
The US presidential election candidates are therefore being compelled to address the Palestinian question in their campaigns and as part of the complex relationship between domestic and foreign policies in the US, Salem said.
AIPAC is another part of this relationship. However, according to Dennis Ross, who served as a political adviser to former president Barack Obama and is a former US Middle East envoy, the influence of the pro-Israel lobby is often exaggerated in the US.
Ross said that its impact is felt more at the local level during Congressional elections than during presidential ones. In Congressional elections in the US, AIPAC chapters and donors typically fund candidates who support Israel or campaigns against candidates who criticise it.
Democratic Congressman Jamaal Bowman and Democratic Congresswoman Cori Bush both lost the primaries in their respective constituencies after AIPAC intervened in support of other candidates. Bowman and Bush, the incumbents, were both members of the “Squad,” an informal grouping of members of Congress who represent the progressive left wing of the Democratic Party.
Members of the “Squad” have continuously voiced their support for Palestine in the ongoing Israeli war on Gaza. Bowman lost his primary election in New York’s 16th district to George Latimer, who received over $20 million from AIPAC to unseat the pro-Palestine incumbent, making it the most expensive congressional race in history.
It was also the first electoral battle fought openly along lines newly drawn up in US politics by the war on Gaza, according to Ben Davis, a former member of the data team for Democratic Congressman Bernie Sanders’ 2020 campaign for the party’s nomination in the presidential elections and an active member of the Democratic Socialists of America.
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