Approximately 3.7 million Americans of Arab descent reside in the US. Though they form only one percent of the American population, they congregate mostly in swing states such as Michigan and Georgia and can affect the results of the US 2024 election. And today both presidential candidates may have to court the Arab minority to lure these voters over, but is it too late and will it work asks Azza Radwan Sedky?
As one example, more than 200,000 Arab Americans call Michigan home, and Michigan is the key swing state that Biden won by over 154,000 votes in 2020. The same goes for Georgia where 100,000 Arab Americans reside. Both states are critical battleground states that Democrats won by a huge margin in 2020.
Ordinarily, Democrats get a 2-to-1 advantage over Republicans among Arab Americans during a presidential election. These numbers will not repeat themselves this election, which is detrimental to the Democrats. And the reason is obvious. Arab Americans were appalled at how supportive Biden and Harris have been of Israel. The current war on Gaza and Lebanon has radically changed the historical Arab American support for Democratic candidates.
For Arab Americans, Israel’s war in Gaza, and Lebanon, will play a significant role in this November election. A poll document by The Hill, a top US political website, says, “In our thirty years of polling Arab American voters, we have not witnessed anything like the role that the war on Gaza is having on voter behavior.”
After Israel’s ferocious attack on Gaza, Arab American support for Biden and Harris dwindled. Many voters during the Democratic primaries cast their ballots as “uncommitted” instead of supporting Biden, creating the Uncommitted National Movement. At least 100,000 registered Democrats in Michigan voted “uncommitted.” In the predominantly Arab/Muslim city of Dearborn, Michigan, the “uncommitted” defeated Biden 56 percent to 40 percent. It was a protest vote against Biden for his inability to attain a ceasefire in Gaza and his ongoing support for Israel.
Since then, Harris has regained some footing, but the pro-Democrat numbers are nowhere close to where they were during the 2020 election. Besides, during the Democratic National Convention, the Uncommitted Movement asked if a Palestinian American could be granted an opportunity to speak, but the request was not granted, which enraged Arab Americans further. Had the Democrats given a Palestinian the floor, the number of pro-Democrat Arabs may have been different today.
Despite Trump’s unconditional support for Israel, today many Arab Americans may consider voting for Trump so as not to vote for Harris. Still, they haven’t forgotten that Trump relocated the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and banned immigration from several Muslim countries. Furthermore, during the debate with Biden in June, he said that Biden should let Israel “finish the job,” completing it with a slur connotation, “He [Biden] doesn’t want to do it. He’s become like a Palestinian.”
Hence, due to their frustration, turnout among Arab Americans may end up being lower this time round. According to the Arab American Institute, “Traditionally, Arab American voter turnout has consistently been in the 80% range. But this year, only 63% of the community say they are enthusiastic about voting in the presidential election, likely impacting voter turnout in November,” which will mainly affect the Democrats.
Over the last few months, it was more important for the presidential campaigns to appease the Israeli lobby that provided billions towards both Republican and Democrat lawmakers and future congressmen. But, as the United States presidential election approaches, the race to attract voters has intensified. Now, it’s crunch time, and the candidates are looking for support in numbers of turning out voters.
So how can the two presidential candidates capture the support of Arab Americans with only a few weeks to go? Harris has appointed an Arab American outreach director, Brenda Abdelall, an Egyptian American, to oversee efforts to win support among Arab-American voters. Abdelall still hasn’t produced much of a change in the sentiments of Arab voters against Democrats.
The tone of the Democrats has shifted somewhat though not enough. Tim Walz told Muslim supporters “Our hearts are broken,” over what is happening in Gaza, and “The scale of death and destruction in Gaza is staggering and devastating.” He called for the end of the war pledging, that if elected, the Harris administration would work side by side with Muslim Americans.
The Trump campaign exhibited no change in tone though it is running ads in Arab and Muslim areas of Michigan that tell voters Harris does not care about them. In addition, two years ago, Trump’s daughter, Tiffany, married Michael Boulos, the son of Lebanese businessman Massad Boulos. Boulos is using his connections in the Arab American community to convince the angry Arab community that Trump is a better choice.
But Joey Cappelletti in the Associated Press says, “Those who have engaged with Boulos so far are skeptical about the impact of these efforts. They note a lack of substantial evidence supporting the assertion that Trump is the better candidate for Arab Americans.”
This may ultimately mean that neither candidate will get the Arab vote, and Arab Americans may opt to go for a third-party candidate such as the Green Party candidate Dr. Jill Stein. She leads with Muslim and Arab voters in three swing states: Michigan, Arizona, and Wisconsin.
What would change the equilibrium would be a simple act of support, or at least vowing to do so if elected: pressure on Israel for a cease fire, a threat to withhold arms to Israel, or a call for the facilitation of humanitarian aid to enter Gaza. Only such a move would make the Arab community consider shifting the balance towards one candidate or the other, but I doubt either candidate will go that route.
Bottom line, Arab-Americans neither want Trump nor the administration that failed to prevent the humanitarian crisis in Gaza; both candidates have proven to be unqualified for the Arab voters’ trust. Frustrated and anguished over the war, Arab voters are left with a third-party candidate or not voting at all in the presidential election.
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