Egypt

Israel and the US against the world

Al Ahram Weekly

Azza Sedky, Tuesday 26 Nov 2024

The relationship between the United States and Israel is a bond that defies the rest of the world, as has been shown during Israel’s war on Gaza, writes Azza Sedky

A question on the minds of the wise captures the essence of the relationship between the US and Israel: what happens between comrades when one of them, embodying evil spiritedness, errs big time? Does the relationship end as a sense of justice prevails?

Does the presumedly virtuous one terminate the mutual collaboration or at least ask the evil-spirited one to renege on any actions taken?  Does turning a blind eye to the other’s actions mean complicity in them?

The relationship between the United States and Israel is a bond that defies the world. It has been shown over the past 14 months that according to the US Israel is infallible. No matter how horrendous Israel’s actions are, the US stands by Israel. Indeed, nothing Israel does deserves reprimand, according to the US, and the US remains a steadfast supporter of Israel.   

Although the US remains oblivious to Israel’s genocidal acts in Gaza, the world has finally realised what is happening and is acting on it. All over the world countries have voiced their indignation with Israel, and let’s not forget the millions of ordinary citizens who have joined pro-ceasefire protests as international organisations, student organisations, and charities worldwide have all called for a ceasefire to the Israeli war on Gaza. 

Many countries have severed diplomatic ties with Israel, including Belize, Bolivia, Colombia, Honduras, and Nicaragua. Others have recalled their ambassadors, such as Jordan, Bahrain, Turkey, and South Africa. Ireland, Norway, and Spain have recognised a Palestinian state.

Others have gone further still. South Africa filed an ongoing case before the International Court of Justice (ICJ), the UN’s top court, in December 2023. According to the evidence submitted by South Africa, Israel’s acts in Gaza are genocidal.

Malaysia has unequivocally condemned Israel’s aggression and the atrocities being carried out by its Zionist regime across Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon. It has sought to expel Israel from the UN, as Israel refuses to supply Gaza with humanitarian aid and is banning the UN Palestinian refugee agency UNRWA from continuing its relief efforts for the Palestinians.

Many countries have continued to voice their concerns and have called for a ceasefire in the war. Since the attack on Gaza began last October, Ireland’s relations with Israel have become strained, making it the most pro-Palestine member of the European Union. Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris said “there cannot be peace in the Middle East if there is no recognition” of Palestine.

Spain has been vocal in its defence of the Palestinians and has cancelled a multimillion ammunition deal with Israel. China has backed UNRWA and has also called for the establishment and recognition of an independent Palestinian state.

But on the very day that the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued warrants for the arrest of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant for war crimes in Gaza, US President-elect Donald Trump said he would lift all military restrictions on Israel on his first day in office in January next year. The world sees matters one way, and Israel and the US see them in another.

Despite the world’s perspective on the war, the US remains steadfast in its support for Israel politically, financially, and militarily. It has a long history of using its veto in the UN Security Council to support Israel. The US has voted against every draft resolution coming before the Council that criticises Israel, sometimes alone against all other Security Council members. It has used its veto power 42 times against Draft UN Security Council Resolutions condemning Israel.

The US provides more financial aid to Israel than any other country. The American Jewish Committee Global Voice commented on one package of US aid for Israel in September that “Israel announced an $8.7 billion aid package from the US, including $3.5 billion for wartime procurement and $5.2 billion for air-defence systems like Iron Dome and David's Sling.” Similar packages are delivered speedily and repeatedly.

Israel is literally starving the population of Gaza to death. Even US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said that “according to the most respected measures of things, 100 per cent of the population in Gaza is at severe levels of acute food security. That’s the first time an entire population has been so classified. We also see again, according to, in this case, the United Nations, 100 per cent – the totality of the population – is in need of humanitarian assistance.”

Blinken’s words have not been followed up with action. The US earlier threatened that it would withhold military aid to Israel if the latter continued to prohibit the passage of humanitarian aid to Gaza, but it then deployed troops and an anti-missile system to Israel. After the month that the US gave Israel to comply with its demand that Israel allow in humanitarian aid, the US backed off despite humanitarian aid groups verifying that Israel had failed to meet the US goals of allowing humanitarian aid into Gaza.

At the same that the Biden Administration has stood with Israel, it has enabled Israel to kill over 40,000 Palestinians and leave thousands of others with severe burns and amputations. Thousands more unidentified victims are lying under the rubble. The same thing is being carried out as Israel annihilates Lebanese villages and bombs the capital Beirut.

What does all this mean? It means that the US will always put Israel’s interests first, that nothing that Israel does can change the US’s dedication and commitment to Israel.

However, this ironclad and unwavering support of Israel affects the US’s image and damages its global standing. The Cato Institute, a US think tank, has said that “Israel is a strategic liability for the United States. The special relationship does not benefit Washington and is endangering US interests across the globe.”

The US says it aims to implement basics notions of human rights and international law, but it does not apply them to Israel.   

Will the US ever waver in its ironclad support for Israel? I doubt it, since Israel has the power to dictate US foreign policy.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 28 November, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly

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مقاومة التضليل

الاهرام

مقاومة التضليل

الأثنين 23 من جمادي الأولى 1446 هــ 25 نوفمبر 2024 السنة 149 العدد 50393

د. عزة رضوان صدقى

وصل التدفق الحالى للمعلومات المضللة عن مصر إلى مستوى قياسى. القصص مليئة بالأحداث الملفقة، يعرض بعضها ما يظنه البعض صورًا حقيقية، والبعض الآخر موثق بالأرقام والإحصائيات المخترعة، وجميعها ينتشر على وسائل التواصل الاجتماعى وبالطبع يتأثر بها المجتمع المصرى

تهدف هذه القصص إلى التأثير على الرأى العام من خلال نشر السخط وتشويه الشخصيات وسمعة السلطات. كما أنها تعزز أجندات معينة وتتلاعب بتفكير الضعفاء، كما أنها تتعمد تأجيج الانقسام والاستقطاب ومثيره للجدل

لقد سمحت وسائل التواصل الاجتماعى بازدهار المعلومات المضللة، وعندما تعتمد النفوس البريئة على معلومات ملفقة، فإن الاختيارات التى يتخذونها تكون خاطئة وليست فى مصلحتهم أو مصلحة الآخرين. وهذا هو الحال بشكل خاص إذا قاموا بتمرير مثل هذه المعلومات المضللة إلى الآخرين، فتسمح لها بالانتشار بسرعة. ولسوء الحظ، نحن المصريين، نميل إلى القيام بذلك، فنحن نستمتع بتسليط الأضواء على أنفسنا، وبالتالى ننشر ما نصادفه كما لو كنا من ذوى الخبرة والمعرفة

وقال الرئيس السيسى مؤخرًا إن الحكومة المصرية واجهت 21 ألف شائعة مسيئة خلال 3 أشهر. وأوضح أن الخطر الحقيقى على مصر يأتى من أن الشائعات يمكن أن تشجع على كراهية السلطات وتؤدى إلى الإرهاب، وطالب المصريين بالحذر من كثرة الأكاذيب والشائعات والافتراءات

للاستهلاك المحلى، تم نشر قصة تؤكد أن أسبوع العمل الحكومى سيتكون من ثلاثة أيام؛ تم تعزيزه بتلفيق قصة أن الدراسة ستكون ثلاثة أيام فقط أيضًا. كلتا القصتين كانتا افتراءات مفبركة

وصورة مصرى، يُفترض أنه فى رأس الحكمة على ساحل البحر الأبيض المتوسط، واقفا بجوار لافتة «مرحبا بكم فى الإمارات العربية المتحدة»، فى حين أنه فى الواقع التقطها على الحدود بين قطر والإمارات العربية المتحدة. وأثارت الصورة ضجة بين متابعى مواقع التواصل الاجتماعى

وقصة دير سانت كاترين مثيرة للضحك. القصة المفبركة تكلمت عن مخططات لهدم أو نقل الدير. ونفى محافظ جنوب سيناء وجود أى نية بشأن هدم أو نقل دير سانت كاترين، مشيرا إلى أن هذه الأخبار محض شائعات وافتراءات

وعندما ظهرت أنباء عن رفع سعر الغاز الطبيعى للمنازل بما يتراوح بين 40 و100 قرش للمتر المكعب، اضطرت وزارة البترول تأكيد عدم وجود تعديل فى أسعار الغاز الطبيعى المخصص للمنازل

والأخطر هو القصص التى تهدف إلى تشويه صورة مصر عالميا. ظهرت قصة تقول للعالم إن مصر تساعد إسرائيل فى الإبادة الجماعية فى غزة، وهى قصة كاذبة تماما، والهدف واضح: تشويه صورة مصر. القصة تتعلق بالسفينة كاثرين المسجلة فى البرتغال وتبحر تحت العلم الألمانى، متجهة إلى إسرائيل حاملة متفجرات. وزعمت المعلومات المضللة أن السفينة رست فى الإسكندرية لتوفير ملاذ آمن للسفينة، وأنها أفرغت حمولتها لإرسالها إلى إسرائيل. وفى الواقع، سُمح للسفينة بالرسو فى ميناء الإسكندرية فقط لتفريغ شحنة لصالح وزارة الدفاع والإنتاج الحربى. وقالت الوزارة إنه بمجرد تفريغ حمولتها المحددة لمصر، غادرت واتجهت إلى ميناء حيدر باشا فى تركيا. القصة تفتقر إلى المصداقية. لماذا تحتاج السفينة إلى الرسو فى الإسكندرية، وتفريغ حمولتها الإسرائيلية ليتم إرسالها إلى إسرائيل عن طريق البر أو البحر، وهى بإمكانها الرسو فى إسرائيل، على بعد مسافة قصيرة جدًا؟

خلاصة القول هى أن مصر غارقة فى القصص الملفقة التى تثير غضب الجمهور. فكيف يمكننا كمتابعين لوسائل التواصل الاجتماعى التغلب على هذه القصص والتحكم فى عدم خروجها عن السيطرة؟

على المستوى الرسمى، يعد توفير معلومات دقيقة والحفاظ على الشفافية أحد الطرق لمواجهة المعلومات المضللة. إن مواكبة المصريين للأحداث وتزويدهم بالتفاصيل والحقائق لا يترك مجالا للشكوك والشائعات. هذا بينما يجب على السلطات دحض مثل هذه القصص بسرعة وكفاءة

كما يجب علينا أن ندرك أن المسئولية تقع على عاتقنا حتى لانلبى طموحات مقدمى المعلومات المضللة. يعد التحقق من الحقائق أمرًا بالغ الأهمية وفى هذا العصر، عندما يكون الوصول إلى المعلومات فى متناول أيدى المرء، فمهمة الجميع التحقق، وإذا كان هناك شيء يبدو غير قابل للتصديق أو مشكوكًا فيه، فقد يكون كذلك

ويجب علينا دائمًا متابعة المواقع الموثوقة والتدقيق فى مصادر الأخبار. وعلينا أن نطرح الأسئلة العقلانية. فهل من الممكن أن تكون هذه الحادثة قد حدثت أم أنها بعيدة الاحتمال؟ هل هى متحيزة؟ هل توقيتها مناسب؟ هل يتم نشر القصة من مصدر واحد فقط أو يتم تأكيدها من خلال دور نشر معروفة؟ هل الصور واضحة أم ربما تم تحريفها؟ والأهم من ذلك أننا لا نشارك إذا شككنا فى المصدر

بالتأكيد تشكل المعلومات المضللة تهديدًا كبيرًا على المجتمع

لمزيد من مقالات د. عزة رضوان صدقى

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'This is incredible': Actor Terry Crews walking on Egypt historic Al-Moez Street

Ahram Online , Wednesday 20 Nov 2024

Renowned American actor and television host Terry Crews recently posted a video on his Instagram account showing his complete awe and admiration for Egypt's rich history and culture during a visit to the iconic Al-Moez Street in Cairo.

In the video, shared with his 14.4 million followers, Crews marvelled at the area's historic charm, captioning the post with, “Take me back to Egypt!! So much history. So beautiful.”

"Here I am on the streets of Egypt, y'all. What an amazing place with so much history; this is incredible. People have been walking on these cobblestone steps for thousands of years. Incredible!" he said enthusiastically. 

Al-Moez Street's rich cultural and historical significance was the perfect backdrop for Crews’ infectious excitement.

A United Nations study highlighted the street, which stretches approximately one kilometre through Cairo, as housing the densest collection of medieval architectural treasures in the Islamic world.

 
Part of Al-Moez Street in the old Cairo district. Photo courtesy of Egyptian Ministry of Tourism.

Situated in the heart of Fatimid Cairo, the historic street is one of the city's oldest streets and a significant landmark in Egyptian history.

It dates back to the Fatimid Caliphate, a Shia-led dynasty that ruled from 909 to 1171 AD.

The street is a historical hub that reflects centuries of architectural and cultural evolution.

Among the notable sites on Al-Moez Street is the Al-Goury Dome, a structure built during the rule of the Mamluks who governed Egypt and the Levant from 1250 to 1517 AD.

The journey through Al-Moez Street also leads to places like the Daylam Alleyway, named after an ethnic group of Persian soldiers who once lived there.

Every corner of the area reveals stories from different eras, making it a treasure trove for those exploring Egypt’s history.

Part of Al-Moez Street in the old Cairo district. Photo courtesy of The Arab Contractors website.

The ICC arrest warrants must bring an end to Israel’s atrocities – and true accountability for all the guilty

The Guardian

Owen Jones

 

Benjamin Netanyahu and his former foreign minister have been accused of heinous crimes. This must mark a turning point

Thu 21 Nov 2024 18.07 GMT

It is not just Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant who should fear accountability for one of the gravest crimes of our age. If the international criminal court (ICC) had not issued today’s arrest warrants for the Israeli prime minister and his erstwhile defence minister – and indeed Hamas military leader Mohammed Deif – a global legal order already widely regarded with contempt by much of the world would not have survived.

Why? Because of the scale of the alleged crime. Because of the overwhelming body of evidence, not least that accumulated by Palestinian journalists, many of whom acted as the world’s eyes and ears on the killing fields of Gaza before being killed by Israel, often alongside their families. And because few crimes in modern history have been so confessed to – boasted about even – by the perpetrators, from leaders at the top to the soldiers unleashing murderous mayhem on the ground. That the evidence for war crimes and crimes against humanity has met the threshold to satisfy the ICC’s chief prosecutor, an independent panel of esteemed lawyers and now three pre-trial international judges demonstrates the strength of the case – and that nobody who facilitated this historic abomination can plead ignorance. It is not just Netanyahu and Gallant who should tremble before justice: as well as other Israeli leaders and soldiers, so should the guilty men and women of western governments.

Some may consider the threat of arrests to be far-fetched: those charged would need to travel to a state that is a signatory to the ICC, which excludes, for example, the US, and Netanyahu may enjoy a level of immunity in foreign states because he is a head of government. But as Victor Kattan, an assistant international law professor at Nottingham University, tells me, the now sacked minister Gallant has no such immunity. “Today’s move is unprecedented,” he tells me, “because we have never had Israelis held accountable for anything they’ve done to Palestinians for the last 70-plus years.” That the judges assessed the available evidence and decided there were reasonable grounds to issue an arrest warrant, he says, speaks to “very, very serious crimes we know are likely to be taking place.”

Indeed, the accused were open about their plans to commit these crimes from the start. The western politicians and media outlets that aided and abetted these atrocities know that, which is why their own protestations of innocence should be considered buried under the rubble, along with countless butchered Palestinian families. At the very start, Gallant declared Israel would impose a total siege on Gaza’s population, whom he termed “human animals”, echoed by one of his leading generals who threatened to unleash “hell” on the civilian population. As two US government agencies concluded seven months ago, Israel indeed deliberately blockaded the essentials of life.

In the days after 7 October 2023, Gallant promised “Gaza won’t return to what it was before.” If that left room for subtlety, he declared: “Hamas won’t be there. We will eliminate everything.” He told Israeli soldiers that he had “released all the restraints” and “removed every restriction” on them. And so it came to pass. The Israeli onslaught has killed what some public health experts estimated in July could amount to 180,000 Palestinians, and by last December had already destroyed so many buildings that Gaza was a different colour and texture when observed from space. These soldiers often posted their actions online, overwhelmed with glee and triumphalism as they did so. Too many western media outlets not only failed to frame their coverage around Israel’s explicit declarations of intent, they buried them, failed to explain their implications, and in many cases simply did not cover them at all.

Western politicians willingly armed this promised crime: the Biden administration has offered $12.5bn worth of aid since 7 October, and just this week was alone on the UN security council in vetoing a ceasefire. The White House has already come out to “fundamentally reject” the ICC’s decision to issue arrest warrants. Israel has said Netanyahu would “not give in to pressure” in the war against Hamas and the Iranian “axis of terror” and Gallant previously referred to the warrants as drawing a “despicable” parallel between Israel and Hamas. When the Labour government finally suspended some arms sales to Israel in September, it left 92% intact and bent over backwards to emphasise that Israel remained a staunch ally.

While western politicians and media outlets made themselves willing accomplices to an obvious heinous crime, those who took Israeli leaders and officials at their word were demonised, hounded, defamed and silenced. Well, let us be clear here. This crime is simply too depraved, too obscene, too colossal for the complicit not to face accountability.

But now is a time to give proper credit to the longsuffering people of Palestine. As the human rights scholar Dr Alonso Gurmendi tells me, “this is the denouement of a long process that the Palestinian leadership started in the early 2010s,” praising their success in “using international law to advance their liberation”. As he also notes, today’s decision could prove to be a sea change, where the west’s “double standards and conditional commitment to international law will be put to the highest test at the hands of an emerging global south”.

There is a separate case, of course, led by South Africa, at the international court of justice, seeking to prove Israel is committing genocide. But if anything emerges from the rubble of Gaza, let it be this. Israel’s genocidal onslaught is the most obscene example of how western supremacy is riddled with grotesque hypocrisies. Let accountability mean that these horrors will never be possible again.

How to get the better of disinformation

The current influx of disinformation on Egypt has hit a record high. The stories are in abundance with conflicting, agitating spins emerging daily. Some display what appears to be valid photos or even footage, others are authenticated by numbers and statistics, and others are proliferated on social medial. Why is this inrush happening asks Azza Radwan Sedky?

President El Sisi recently said that the Egyptian government faced 21,000 harmful rumors in 3 months. He also explained that the real danger to Egypt comes from how rumours could encourage hatred of authorities and lead to terrorism, and he asked Egyptians to beware the large number of lies, rumours, fabrications, and slanders.

How does disinformation impact Egypt’s society? The stories emerging today are intent on propagating lies and swaying the public opinion by spreading disgruntlement, tarnishing characters, and discrediting authorities. It also advances certain agendas and mindsets and manipulates victims to think in a particular way and even to react in a certain way.

Disinformation manipulates views and leaves the vulnerable sceptic and uncertain wondering where the truth is. Furthermore, it intentionally fuels division and polarization, exploits negativity, and sparks controversy.

Social media has allowed online disinformation to flourish, and when innocent Egyptian souls rely on disinformation, the choices they make are faulty and not in their or others’ best interests. This is especially the case if they pass such disinformation along to others, only to allow it to spread even further. Unfortunately, we, Egyptians, innocently tend to do that. We enjoy the spotlight and, hence, are ready to spread what we come across as though we are in the know.

Just a mere handful of recent disinformation episodes on Egypt are exposed here. For the domestic consumption front, a story on the working hours of government employees was propagated confirming a three-day week; it was further enhanced with a story re school students who will attend only three days of schooling. Both stories were total fabrications.

Then there is the photo of an Egyptian, assumed to be in Ras El Hekma on the coast of the Mediterranean Sea, seen standing next to the sign, “Welcome to the United Arab Emirates,” when, in reality, he had taken it on the border between Qatar and the Arab Emirates. The photo went viral and caused disturbances across social media followers.

When a story emerged saying that the price of natural gas for homes was being raised by between 40 to 100 piasters per cubic meter, the Ministry of Petroleum had to assert that there is no amendment in the prices of natural gas allocated for homes and commercial activities.  

More dangerous are the episodes intent on distorting Egypt’s image globally. Two ship stories, back-to-back, came out simultaneously to tell the world that Egypt is assisting Israel in its genocidal efforts in Gaza; both stories were utterly false, the aim is clear: to tarnish Egypt’s image.

The first story is of the MV Kathrine, a Portuguese-registered ship that sails under the German flag, bound for Israel carrying explosives. The disinformation alleged that the ship docked in Alexandria to provide the ship with safe harbour, akin to complicity in the genocide, and that it offloaded its cargo to be sent to Israel amidst its onslaught on Gaza.

Indeed, the MV Kathrine was permitted to dock at Alexandria Port solely to unload a shipment for the Ministry of Defence and Military Production. The ministry added that once it unloaded its specific cargo for Egypt, it left and headed to the Haydarpaşa Port in Turkey.

The embellished story lacks fact checking. Why does a ship need to dock in Alexandria, offload its Israeli cargo, only to be sent to Israel by land or by sea when it can dock in Israel, a very short distance away?

The second ship story revolves around the Israeli warship that sailed through the Suez Canal and in the process ignited a wave of controversy on social media in Egypt. In response to the ongoing outcry, the Suez Canal Authority said in a statement on Saturday that Egypt is committed to the "Constantinople Convention" signed in 1888. This convention dictates that ships of any nation can pass freely during war and peace, considering the waterway a neutral zone. Article I of the Constantinople Convention reads, “The Suez Maritime Canal shall always be free and open, in time of war as in time of peace, to every vessel of commerce or of war, without distinction of flag.”

The bottom line is that Egypt is inundated with fabricated stories that enrage the public, and if these stories are listened to, they may cause downright mayhem. So how can we as social media followers overcome these hideous stories and have them not get out of hand? Here is a list of do’s and don’ts at the official and personal levels. 

At the official level, providing accurate information and maintaining a transparent outlook is one way to counter disinformation. Keeping Egyptians abreast of happenings and providing them with up-to-date details and facts leaves no room for doubts and rumours. This while authorities must rebuttal such episodes swiftly and efficiently.

Also, we, as Egyptians, must realise that the onus is on us not to fulfill the expectations of disinformation providers. Fact checking is paramount, and in this day and age, when access to information is at the tip of one’s hands, it isn’t only a journalist's job, it is everyone’s job to fact check. If something sounds unbelievable or highly dubious, it very well might be, so checking to verify becomes mandatory.

We must always follow credible sites and scrutinize news sources. We must ask the pivotal rational questions. Is this incident possible to have occurred or is it too farfetched? Does it ring true? Is it biased or one-sided? Is it timely and accurate?  Is it published by one source only and not confirmed by well-known publications? Are the photos clear or perhaps altered?  

More importantly, we must share only when we are certain of the source and its credibility, and if we doubt the source, then we don’t share.

Disinformation poses a significant threat to society; we must be aware and avoid being sabbotaged.

إيران ــ إسرائيل.. سياسة البقاء للأقوى

الاهرام

إيران ــ إسرائيل.. سياسة البقاء للأقوى

الأثنين 9 من جمادي الأولى 1446 هــ 11 نوفمبر 2024 السنة 149 العدد 50379

د. عزة رضوان صدقى

تصاعد التوتر بين إيران وإسرائيل بعد 7 أكتوبر 2023. ويتقلب الوضع بين ضربات، ثم توقف متوتر، ثم المزيد من الضربات، ثم حذر، ثم المزيد من الهجمات للانتقام أو حفظ ماء الوجه. من الواضح أن كليهما يلعب لعبة العين بالعين، لكنهم على علم بأن حربا واسعة النطاق لن تفيد، لذا فإن الهدف هو الظهور بمظهر الأقوى فى هذه المعركة

لقد أضاءت إيران سماء تل أبيب ومدن أخرى فى إسرائيل بطائرات بدون طيار وصواريخ، وبضربات محددة ومنظمة، هاجمت إسرائيل إيران. أراد كلٌ منهما الظهور للعالم، وللمدنيين الإيرانيين والإسرائيليين، أنهما يستطيعان. وفى كل الهجمات تم إخطار الولايات المتحدة مسبقًا، وبالتالى أخطرت الولايات المتحدة إسرائيل بنيات إيران ليتوّج هذا السيناريو بفكرة: سنهاجم لذا احذروا

وغنىٌّ عن القول إن الضحايا الحقيقيين هم شعوب لبنان وغزة والضفة الغربية، حيث تعمل هذه المواجهات على تهميش المآسى التى تشهدها المنطقة وعرقلة أى أمل متبقٍ فى تحقيق انفراجة فى محادثات السلام الراكدة، فبينما يُركز العالم على النزاع الإيرانى الإسرائيلى، يتم تجاهل الدمار فى غزة ولبنان.

لم تكن إيران متورطة بشكل مباشر فى هجوم أكتوبر، لكنها بلا شك قدمت الدعم المادى والحربى ووكلاء إيران فى جميع أنحاء المنطقة، سواء حماس أو حزب الله أو الحوثيون، كانوا شوكة فى خاصرة إسرائيل منذ 7 أكتوبر. الجبهات كثيرة: تهاجم حماس من داخل غزة، ويهاجم حزب الله الحدود الشمالية لإسرائيل، ويهاجم الحوثيون السفن التجارية المتجهة إلى إسرائيل، والجماعات المدعومة من إيران فى العراق وسوريا يطلقون الصواريخ والقذائف باتجاه إسرائيل

وبطبيعة الحال، لم يقبل الإسرائيليون أن يصبحوا متهاونين وأن يتركوا للإيرانيين اليد العليا، لذلك بدأوا سلسلة هجمات على الجبهة الإيرانية. فى 1 أبريل، تم تدمير المبنى الملحق بالقنصلية الإيرانية فى مجمع السفارة الإيرانية فى دمشق بغارة جوية إسرائيلية وتسبب فى مقتل ستة عشر شخصا. وتوعدت إيران بالرد على قصف السفارة الإيرانية. وفى سابقة من نوعها، شنت إيران هجوما عسكريا مباشرا على إسرائيل. وشوهد وابل من أكثر من 300 صاروخ وطائرة فى سماء إسرائيل، لكن تم اعتراضها وإسقاطها من قبل إسرائيل وحلفائها الغربيين. وردت إسرائيل فى 19 أبريل، بغارة جوية محدودة على رادار دفاع جوى قريب من موقع نووى فى إيران. ثم اغتيل زعيم حماس السياسى إسماعيل هنية فى طهران بينما كان يحضر حفل تنصيب الرئيس الإيرانى المنتخب حديثاً

ومرة أخرى، شعرت إيران بأن عليها الرد لاستعادة الردع. فى 1 أكتوبر، أطلقت إيران 200 صاروخ على إسرائيل. وقام الجيش الأمريكى بنقل طائرات ومدمرات دفاعية ضد الصواريخ الباليستية إلى المنطقة، وقال الرئيس بايدن: “بفضل عمليات النشر هذه والمهارة غير العادية لأفراد خدمتنا، ساعدنا إسرائيل فى إسقاط جميع الطائرات بدون طيار والصواريخ القادمة تقريبًا”. وكانت آخر حلقة من هذه الحلقات المفزعة هو الهجوم الإسرائيلى الأخير. قصفت إسرائيل مواقع عسكرية فى إيران فى 26 أكتوبر، لكنها لم تستهدف المنشآت النفطية والنووية الحساسة

وقال الجيش الإسرائيلى فى بيان: «النظام فى إيران ووكلاؤه فى المنطقة يهاجمون إسرائيل بلا هوادة منذ 7 أكتوبر - على سبع جبهات - بما فى ذلك الهجمات المباشرة من الأراضى الإيرانية». «مثل أى دولة أخرى ذات سيادة فى العالم، لدولة إسرائيل الحق وواجب الرد». وقالت إسرائيل إن طائراتها قصفت منشآت لتصنيع الصواريخ تستخدم لإنتاج الصواريخ التى أطلقتها إيران على إسرائيل خلال العام الماضى، والتى شكلت «تهديدا مباشرا وفوريا لمواطنى إسرائيل». لكن وسائل الإعلام الرسمية الإيرانية قالت إن الهجمات الإسرائيلية لم تسبب أى أضرار جسيمة

هل ستكون هذه هى الجولة الأخيرة؟ هل انتهت الأزمة؟ قالت وزارة الخارجية الإيرانية إن إيران لها الحق وملزمة بالدفاع عن نفسها، لكنها أضافت أنها «تعترف بمسئولياتها تجاه السلام والأمن الإقليميين»، وهو بيان أكثر تهدئة مما قيل بعد كل موجة تصعيد سابقة. وقال بنى سبتى، خبير الشئون الإيرانية فى معهد تل أبيب لدراسات الأمن القومى، إن الضربة الإسرائيلية تبدو وكأنها تهدف إلى منح طهران فرصة لتجنب المزيد من التصعيد. ويأمل العالم أجمع أن تتراجع إيران عن شن المزيد من الأعمال الانتقامية، لكن الجدل لا يزال يدور حول كيفية الرد على انتهاك إسرائيل لسيادتها الوطنية الإيرانية. وإذا لم تتلاش هذه الدوامة التصعيدية، فقد ينتهى بها الأمر إلى التحول إلى حرب شاملة، وهو ما لا تريده الولايات المتحدة، ولا يستطيع الشرق الأوسط تحمله

إذا لم يتباطأ ويهدأ الصراع بين إيران وإسرائيل، فإن العواقب ستكون وخيمة على الإسرائيليين، والإيرانيين، والفلسطينيين، واللبنانيين، والشرق الأوسط برمته

لمزيد من مقالات د. عزة رضوان صدقى

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The Iran-Israel conundrum

Al Ahram Weekly

Azza Radwan Sedky

Tuesday 5 Nov 2024

The tit-for-tat attacks carried out against each other by Iran and Israel have degenerated into a game of cat and mouse at the expense of the people of the region, writes Azza Radwan Sedky

Tensions between Iran and Israel have escalated rapidly since the 7 October attacks on Israel by the Palestinian group Hamas last year. 

The situation has fluctuated between strikes, tense pauses, and then further strikes, with interim periods of playing it safe, and then more strikes meant to avenge previous ones or save face. The conflict between the two countries has become something like a game of cat and mouse.

A full-scale war would not benefit either country, so the goal on both sides is to come across as more powerful and ultimately victorious in a fruitless dogfight. 

Iran has lit up the skies of Tel Aviv and other cities in Israel with drones and missiles, and Israel has staged targeted strikes against Iran. Both Israel and Iran want to exhibit to the world, and their populations, that each can strike the other and do better than the other. 

Before the Iranian drone and missile attacks on Israel, the US was notified that they would take place, and the US then also notified Israel. The US was also notified in advance of the Israeli strikes on Iran. All this has given rise to a weird and convoluted scenario, in which each party understands that the other will attack and is free to take the necessary precautions. 

Needless to say, the real victims of this are the people of Lebanon, Gaza, and the West Bank, as these encounters derail any remaining hopes of a breakthrough in the stagnant peace talks and sideline the tragedies occurring in the region. As the world focuses on the Iranian-Israeli conflict, the devastation in Gaza and Lebanon is too often ignored. 

Iran was not directly involved in the 7 October attacks last year, although without a doubt it supplied arms and support to Hamas. Iran’s proxies across the region, whether Hamas, Hizbullah, or the Houthis in Yemen, have been thorns in Israel’s side at least since last 7 October.

Since then, many fronts have opened up for Israel: Hamas attacked it from Gaza, Hizbullah attacked its northern border, and the Houthis attacked merchant ships in the Red Sea heading to Israel. Iranian-backed groups in Iraq and Syria have been launching rockets and missiles towards Israel. 

Of course, the Israelis were not minded to accept becoming sitting ducks and letting the Iranians have the upper hand, so they began their own series of attacks on Iran. On 1 April, the Iranian Consulate annex building hosting the ambassador’s residence in the Iranian Embassy complex in Damascus was destroyed by an Israeli airstrike. Some 16 people were killed. 

Iran vowed to retaliate in response to the strike, and in a move advertised as the first of its kind it launched a direct military assault on Israel named Operation True Promise 1. More than 300 missiles and drones were shot down by Israel and its Western allies above Israeli cities. 

Israel then retaliated on 19 April with limited airstrikes on an air-defence radar station close to a nuclear site in Iran. Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was then assassinated in Tehran when he was attending the inauguration of Iran’s newly elected president by a bomb hidden in the wall of a government guest house in Tehran. 

Iran felt it had to respond, and on 1 October an Iranian strike labelled Operation True Promise 2 saw 200 ballistic missiles fired at Israel. The US moved aircraft and ballistic missile defence systems to the region. 

“Thanks to these deployments and the extraordinary skill of our service members, we helped Israel take down nearly all of the incoming drones and missiles,” US President Joe Biden said.

The last episode in this vicious cycle of intimidation was Israel’s attack on Iran on 26 October, when it bombed military targets but did not touch the country’s oil and nuclear facilities. 

“The regime in Iran and its proxies in the region have been relentlessly attacking Israel since October 7th on seven fronts, including direct attacks from Iranian soil,” the Israel Defence Forces said in a statement. “Like every other sovereign country in the world, the State of Israel has the right and the duty to respond.”

Israel said that based on its intelligence its aircraft had hit missile-manufacturing facilities used to produce the missiles that Iran has fired at Israel over the past year and that pose “a direct and immediate threat to the citizens of Israel.” Iran’s state media said that Israel’s attacks did not cause any major damage.

Will this be the last round in this game of tit-for-tat attacks? The Iranian News Agency said there would be a “proportional reaction” to the Israeli strikes. The Iranian Foreign Ministry said that Iran was “entitled and obligated” to defend itself but added that it “recognises its responsibilities towards regional peace and security,” a more pacific statement than those that came after every previous bout of escalation.

The world now hopes that Iran will step back from launching further reprisals, but there is debate in the country on how to respond to Israel’s breach of its national sovereignty. If the present escalatory spiral does not fizzle out, it may end up turning into an all-out war, which the US does not want, and the Middle East cannot afford.  

“This should be the end of it,” said one US official after the last round of strikes. 

Iran expert at Tel Aviv’s Institute for National Security Studies Beni Sabti said the Israeli strikes on Iran had appeared to be designed to give Tehran an opportunity to avoid further escalation. 

If the conflict between Iran and Israel does not now slow down, the consequences will be huge for the Israelis, the Iranians, the Palestinians, the Lebanese, and the whole Middle East. 

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* The writer is a former professor of communication who is based in Vancouver, Canada.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 7 November, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly